After the simulations made for the second round of the presidential elections, the director of the INScop, estimates a higher vote, but also a race on May 18.
A more numerous vote is expected than on May 4. Photo: Inquam/George Călin
The director of Inscop Research, the Socilog Remus Stefureac, states that the polarization of the voters is increasingly obvious and that the difference between the two candidates in the second round, George Simion and Nicuşor Dan decreased.
Also, after the simulations made, he estimates a higher vote on May 18, when at least 1.5 million new voters could vote.
I expect 1.5 million, at least, new voters to come in the second round ”, Remus Stefureac said at Digi24, adding that the debates are very important for both candidates, who have to get out of their own basin and attract new voters.
The polarization of voters is quite clear
If 11 candidates participated in the first round of the presidential elections, the voters having a wider palette, for the second round their polarization around one or the other of the two competitors is increasingly obvious.
“The last week confirmed what I usually knew about the competitions in the second round, confirmed a polarization of the company quite clear and, obviously, a strong balancing of the competition. The debates think they were useful, the Romanians had the opportunity to see – some of them, true – to see the candidates. I think it is important to have both candidates to continue to participate in debates, it is their best chance of to get additional votes. Beyond their own basin of supporters, loyal, loyal, in the second round any candidate has to create a coalition of much wider voters ”, said Remus Stefureac.
The difference between George Simion and Nicuşor Dan was reduced
According to the same source, the difference between the two candidates decreased, after several of those who did not enter the second round have mobilized and said they would support Nicuşor Dan.
“In the first week there was a balancing of the race. If on all the previous simulations two, the difference between Mr. George Simion and Mr. Nicușor Dan varied between 15-20 points, even, let’s say, Mr. Nicușor Dan Perform a little weaker in the second round than other candidates after the first round, We are waiting for 1.5 million, at least new voters to come to the second round ”, said the sociologist.
About 1.5 million new voters
The latest polls conducted by Inscop Research indicates that participation in the presidential elections of May 18 will be a more numerous one than in the first round, registering an increase of about 10-13%.
“From what I saw, at least from the data, I find the following thing: if in the statements of the participants in the surveys before the first round the presence estimation was about 50%, at least on the Inscop Research data, the presence estimation that appears from the statements of the citizens last week goes somewhere to 63%, Such growth will probably be a phenomenon similar to the one in the second round of 2014, when in the first round we had about 50%, and in the second round I had about 65% and the final result I think will be balanced, it will keep the voting of both camps, which, of course, will be intensely focused until the last day, the last one, said the sociologist.
The debates can bring new voters for both candidates
Remus Stefureac also emphasized the importance of debates for both candidates, who have the opportunity to address another electoral basin and thus win new votes.
“At such a debate, of course, the public extends. Any candidate has interest, for example, to access the public that you do not usually access. You have to access an audience that you do not usually speak, who do not vote, maybe, may Cause. he explained.
