President Nicușor Dan opens the first round of consultations in Cotroceni with the parliamentary parties on Monday, but the prospects for a quick solution to the deadlock are minimal. In the context in which a new political crisis threatens the country’s stability, political consultant Cristian Andrei explains, for “Adevărul”, the behind-the-scenes strategies of the main actors.
On Friday, Nicușor Dan publicly conveyed that he does not want a government that would generate a new political crisis. Beyond the conciliatory tone, the message suggests that the president does not intend to quickly force a political solution, but to let the parties take on the task of building a majority.
“It means that he will wait for the parties to propose a majority and that he will not force, at least at the beginning, a minority government. This will lead to a longer period of groping and negotiations and that, in the absence of a surprise, we are only at the beginning of resolving the crisis. We are at moment 1.0. The president wants the parties to take over the government and not pass this hot potato to him. At the same time, Nicușor Dan knows that a government of sacrifice, with an expiration date, would be an extremely weak one and would only create other problems,” says Cristian Andrei.
On Wednesday, in a press conference, President Nicușor Dan left open the scenario of a common agreement between the parties in the former governing coalition, which would support the installation of a technocrat prime minister. Political consultant Cristian Andrei, however, remains reserved about the feasibility of such a formula and warns of the political implications it would have for the president.
“The president recently talked about some kind of program or platform accepted by all the pro-European parties, which could be a way to get them to table and on the basis of which he could ask them or the Parliament for their support for an independent prime minister. There is not much chance for such a thing, but the president does not have much means to force some negotiations. A variant of a politically independent prime minister would mean, however, a prime minister with the support of the president, who would thus become a de facto part of the cabinet and from a broader political understanding”, says Cristian Andrei.
PNL is counting on demarcation from PSD
Liberals seem determined to avoid, at least at this stage, taking the political initiative. According to Cristian Andrei, the strategy of the party led by Ilie Bolojan is one of clear demarcation from PSD and waiting for a more favorable political moment.
“The strategy of the PNL is to distance itself from the PSD and leave the PSD offside – either to show that the PSD cannot form a majority, or to force the PSD to assume the government and the political costs of the more difficult period. In the scenario in which the PSD will not be able to form a cabinet, then the PNL can come back, on the second attempt, with its own proposal for a minority government. In the long term, the stake is for the PNL to have a variant of the anti-system, anti-PSD message and change the way to do politics”, explains Cristian Andrei.
In other words, the liberals are counting on wearing down their opponent and on the political advantages they could gain if the PSD is forced to manage an extremely difficult economic and social period.
PSD wants to be in power, but without taking responsibility
While the PNL adopts a defensive strategy, the PSD tries to remain at the center of the political game without fully assuming the costs of governance. The social democratic leaders have already conveyed that they are waiting for “a solution” from Nicușor Dan, a formula that actually hides a more complex strategy.
“The PSD still hopes for the implosion of the PNL, which will join them without Ilie Bolojan and wants a prime minister and a cabinet that they can control, but for which President Nicușor Dan will take responsibility. The PSD hopes for a proposal for a prime minister of any kind, that will break the PNL from Bolojan. The PSD wants to be in power, but to continue the strategy of dissociating itself from the shortcomings of the government in the most difficult period. The PSD wants to play its own game score of a more populist message, on the side of the people, hoping to win back the electorate but at the same time stay in power”. explained Cristian Andrei.
