In the next period, Romania could have a Government that depends to a lesser extent on the games between the parties and more on the support of the president. The appointed Prime Minister announced that among the priorities of the future Executive are the fulfillment of the PNRR milestones and the continuation of the steps for Romania’s accession to the OECD.
Beyond these objectives, the real challenges are related to the economic situation, the increasing polarization of society and the negotiations between political parties.
A transitional government or one with long-term goals?
“Adevărul” talked with political analyst Cristian Andrei about the chances of a possible technical government functioning without major political pressures. In his opinion, the main challenge is that the new cabinet is not perceived only as a sacrificial executive.
“To be more than a sacrificial government, more than a government that manages current affairs. Everyone would expect this cabinet to be short-lived and only to collect the liabilities. So the challenge is to propose more and show that it can lead Romania, not just pay bills. The big themes will continue to be inflation, the deficit and state spending, including here the salary and money for the localities”says the coordinator of the Political Rating Agency.
“Parties will have a big influence”
The new Executive would begin its activity in a complicated context, marked by the pressure to reduce the deficit and the obligation to continue the reforms undertaken through the PNRR. Even if the parliamentary vacation may temporarily give more room for maneuver to the Government, the influence of the parties will not disappear.
“The advantage of a cabinet with full powers now is that it can speed up, through the GEO or through the hiring of responsibility, those reforms in the PNRR. The parliamentary vacation may temporarily provide some peace from the parties, but it is only apparent. The political parties will be active and negotiate with the government on appointments and reforms.
Any change at this level will be negotiated with the parties supporting the government, the second level will be political. Therefore, the parties will be directly involved in the government and will have a great influence. A minister cannot control a ministry by himself. He is addicted to political appointees“, says Cristian Andrei.
Why didn’t the head of state appoint Sorin Grindeanu as prime minister. The President: “Supported by whom?”
Who will make the important decisions?
In the opinion of Cristian Andrei, the great political negotiations will be coordinated from the Cotroceni Palace, and the survival of the Government will largely depend on the relationship with the president.
“It is a cabinet for an agenda that moves from the parties to the president. Political camps will remain defined as before in Parliament, pro and against reforms. Parties will negotiate favors for their own interest, from positions to funds for mayors. The president will have a choice between being equidistant, yielding to the parties, or taking the leadership of the pro-European camp and imposing reforms.
The ideology of this government, although it has been said a lot, the one that will be blown everywhere, will be “responsibility”. A kind of “stability” on new style. Compromises will be made in its name, to make a fragile majority work. As the names of the ministers announced on the sources show, there will be a cabinet of experts who will not disturb the parties, people from within the state. It will be a cabinet of the State and in places with names from big business. That is, a cabinet willing to talk and accommodate conflicting interests, in the name of this “responsibility”. PSD will therefore feel much more comfortable with such an approach”says the analyst.
“It’s a temporary solution that the president now hopes to make permanent”
Beyond the economic challenges, Cristian Andrei believes that the current government formula can mark a paradigm shift in Romanian politics:
“The safer answer is that it is a temporary solution that the president now hopes to make permanent, one in which he can play actively in the field and no longer allow political crises. The president gave a rather harsh signal to the parties at Tomac’s announcement by criticizing all the parties together. It is the sign of a new positioning: the president vs. parties. Responsibility vs. crisis”.
The analyst believes that this strategy could represent the beginning of building a presidential platform with long-term stakes:
“The political conflict in Romania in the coming years will be between these attempts to redraw the political scene in dissolution: the Bolojan pole, the Nicușor Dan pole, the populist pole and somewhere PSD trying not to disappear”.
The appointed Prime Minister, Eugen Tomac, declared that on Monday, June 8, he will come with the list of ministers who will form the cabinet if these proposals pass the Parliament’s vote.
