The race for the Capital City Hall is announced to be very fragmented, with more than ten candidates registered, and, in addition to the favorites supported by the major parties, another unexpected candidacy, which follows an intense online strategy and an active presence on the ground, but which often passes “under the radar” of the traditional media, could surprise when the results are announced on December 7.
More than 10 candidates registered for the elections for the Capital PHOTO Reuters
Among the candidates for the Capital City Hall, the potential represented by Ana Ciceală stands out, supported by a party that in the past managed to bring an independent to the European Parliament. But that’s all, because the formation failed to pass the 5% threshold for the Romanian Parliament.
According to the most recent polls, Ciceală is right after the four main candidates of the big parties — Daniel Băluță (PSD), Ciprian Ciucu (PNL), Cătălin Drula (USR) and Anca Alexandrescu (AUR) — and his electoral base is right in the Capital.
Chances of a surprise at the December 7 vote
Ana Ciceăla does not have a strong party behind her. The support of SENS can represent an advantage, only for a certain type of electorate. Thus, the sociologist Remus Ștefureac, director of Inscop, points out that a promotion to the first place is impossible.
The party represented by Ana Ciceala “it has good traction, at least among young people aged 18-29. In general, at the national level, we also published last week the voting intention for SENS at the national level among the public aged 18-29, it is about 16%. Of course, in the big cities, in principle, it is even higher, because that is also where the electoral core of this party is.” explains Remus Ștefureac for “Adevărul”.
SENS candidate “he will probably make an interesting figure in this election. How high the score will be we cannot know at this point, but for sure, at least on some type of audience it will score well. SENS had good results, for example, in last year’s parliamentary elections. In Bucharest they got a score of 5%. Therefore, it already had an important pool. It would be a failure if it didn’t get 5%. Any score above this percentage is a performance,” the sociologist also shows.
The weight of the young people’s vote will also depend on how many of them come from other localities and will go to the polls with a floating visa, emphasizes Remus Ștefureac.
Electorate trends: “There is an expectation for a new party, rather center-left”
Political science professor Radu Carp explains for “Adevărul” that Ana Ciceălă, the SENS candidate, follows exactly the recipe that brought success to Nicu Ștefănuță, such campaigns, used by both the extreme right and the left, being the ones that pass under the mass media radar: “Indeed, in Bucharest, there is this young progressive electorate, which is on the extreme left of the political spectrum. So they are not necessarily, how can I say, share the idea of the extreme left, they are not communists, but they are more to the left than PSD. So SENS is a party from the extreme left of the political spectrum, which gave a very formidable candidate, Nicu Ștefănuță, who won this mandate because he was extremely active on social networks, as well as those on the other end of the political spectrum, those on the extreme right.
So those who are at the extremes make maximum use of these tools, social networks, but more than that, Mr. Nicu Ștefănuță was very active and very present on the ground. It is exactly the recipe that Mrs. Ciceăla also applies, i.e. maximum presence on social networks and, at the same time, maximum presence in the Capital. Your Lordship has been going to the Capital for at least 3 months. He still has various actions, only they are not really seen by televisions, that is, they are not really publicized other than on social networks”.
At the same time, according to him, the polls of the last year indicate a new direction of the electorate, especially among young people.
“If we look at the polls this year, before the presidential elections, we see that there is a great expectation for a new party. But the message was, I say, misunderstood in a way, in the sense that many thought it was a new center-right party, and that is why this call for the unification of USR, PNL and so on was used. In fact, the new party is seen by those who want it, rather I mean, rather, I would say, social-liberal, although it is an oxymoron, there is no such thing, but people are waiting for a party that will alter the effects of inflation, but at the same time keep the economy free, so that’s what young people are waiting for,” explains Radu Carp.
Candidate inflation – ‘Contributes to vote fragmentation’
Among those who have registered in the race for the Capital City Hall are the candidates of the main ruling parties, the candidates of the opposition parties in the Parliament, candidates of smaller parties with some electoral experience or even independents and candidates of some obscure formations, which will lead to the fragmentation of the votes.
Among the surprise candidates are Mihai Ioan Lască, who is running on behalf of the Party of Romanian Patriots, or Liviu Gheorghe, the proposal of the Maniu-Mihalache National Peasant Party, Oana Crețu, president of the United Social Democratic Party, as well as the independent Gheorghe Nețoiu.
“Each candidate can get at least a few thousand votes. And all of them together can probably break at least 5% in total, maybe more. Which means they obviously take from other candidates. And in a fragmented race with small margins between the main contenders, they obviously can make an impact.
It’s a natural phenomenon when you have a fragmentation between the candidates of the main parties and when it’s quite obvious that the differences are not very big, candidates also appear, let’s say, without a chance, a lot, probably stimulated by one camp or another, or by their own conviction, that they can surely promote themselves in such a campaign, and who really contribute to the fragmentation of the vote”. sociologist Remus Ștefureac also explains.
