The nearly 30 days of campaign gathered the fight for tour II. If, with the submission of candidates, in March, the data presented the candidates quoted at the first places at distances and 8 percent, the latest sociological research presents much closer or even similar data. The moves from the presidential campaign have failed to produce a great impact, points out the sociologist Barbu Mateescu.
The campaign has not changed the ranking of photo candidates too much collage / Mediafax
The only constant in the polls is the position of George Simion, who remained favorite in the presidential race, with a percentage of about 30%, from the first poll to present the voting intention at the time of invalidation of Călin Georgescu.
The first data
The Atlasintel data, collected between March 13 and 15, 2025, placed the first place on the head of Gold, with 30.4% of the votes, followed by the general mayor of the Capital, Nicușor Dan, with 26% and by Crin Antonescu, the common candidate of PSD-PNL-UDMR, quoted with 17.9%. Victor Ponta would obtain 9%, while Elena Lasconi, the USR leader, was credited by 3.9%.
The data did not change much even after the support of USR support for Elena Lasconi and the support of Nicușor Dan or after Victor Ponta’s claim that he allowed to flood Romanian villages to save Belgrade at the time he was a prime minister.
Also atlasintel, in mid -April, placed George Simion (3.4%), followed by Crin Antonescu (24.7%), Nicușor Dan (21.2%), Victor Ponta (9.7%) and Elena Lasconi (5%).
The data from mid-April presented by an IRSOP survey, conducted during the period April 4-14, 2025, positioned George Simion (31%) and Nicușor Dan (28%), followed by Victor Ponta (18%), Crin Antonescu (17%), Elena Lasconi (4%).
What the surveys look now
The most recent poll is conducted by the NGO “We, Romanians”, between April 24-30 and also also data from the diaspora. The study places George Simion (30.5%) in the first place, followed by Nicușor Dan (26.5%), Crin Antonescu (20.5%), Victor Ponta (10.4%) and Elena Lasconi (8.6%).
According to another recent study by Cira, George Simion remains among the voters’ preferences with over 30% of the answers, followed by Nicușor Dan and Crin Antonescu, on a draw, with 20% of the answers, with small variations of 0.5%, Victor Ponta and Elena Lasconi by 6%.
The latest sociopol survey does not change the ranking presented since March. George Simion (34%) and Victor Ponta (22%) remain favorite in the race for the Cotroceni chair. Crin Antonescu (19%) is in the third place, equal to Nicușor Dan (19%). Elena Lasconi decreased in the standings, with only 5%, compared to 8%, as she had registered last week.
Why do the results of the poll on May 4 depend
“The changes are very small. They did not have a very, great impact neither the withdrawal of USR support for Elena Lasconi, nor for good nor for Nicușor Dan, nor that scandal with Belgrade. It is possible that Victor Ponta has lost a few percent, but nothing huge.”explains the sociologist Barbu Mateescu.
Given the collected race between the candidates, the sociologist points out that the scenarios for the second round are multiple and the one in which we could have Victor Ponta in the second round with George Simion: “At Ponta I believe that many things depend and why PSD will do on the day of the vote. And I do not mean here as a party, Ciolacu, Kiseleff, but I refer to the thousand and some mayors of the PSD, of which they are huge in the rural, how they will position themselves, to what extent they want to influence their countrymen.”
The results of the surveys now can be modified in the following days, in the context of the three days of debates that have just ended.
“There is room for changes from my point of view. Yes, because they can demobilize. Remember that practically everyone is in competition with another candidate for votes. Victor Ponta and Crin Antonescu for PSD, Nicușor Dan and Crin Antonescu for PNL. (…) We might see a little lower score for Simion in the country, because of the country. II ”, Barbu Mateescu also shows.
Regarding the competition between Nicușor Dan and Elena Lasconi, Barbu Mateescu mentions that the two “partially divide an electorate segment ”but their electorate seems to be already seated, and the change from the USR has not produced any massive ascension neither in the case of Nicușor Dan nor in the case of Elena Lasconi.
