Support for a joint PSD-PNL candidate in the presidential elections depends on the results of the June 9 elections, as well as Mircea Geoană's entry into the race, say analysts consulted by “Adevărul”.
It is possible that, after June 9, the PSD and PNL presidents will become opponents. PHOTO: Inquam Photos
Despite the statement of the president of the PNL, Nicolae Ciucă, who claimed, on Tuesday, that the party will have its own candidate in the elections to appoint the future president of Romania, the analysts consulted by “Adevărul” claim that the decision will be taken only after the elections on June 9.
“PNL will have its own candidate in the presidential elections, and the decision on the nomination will be made in the party's leadership forums“, declared Nicolae Ciucă, after the meeting of the Bistrita-Năsăud County Board of Directors, according to News.ro.
“It is normal that after the local elections we have a National Council in which we analyze the results of the local and European parliamentary elections and from here on we establish all the steps for the party, the members of the party, to establish and have beyond the nomination and the strategy with which PNL will enter the elections“, the liberal leader also said.
“The simplest situation for the two parties will be to go with their own candidates”
Professor Cristian Pîrvulescu claims that the decision will depend on the results of the European and local elections.
“I expect that the two parties will finally obtain, after redistribution, more than 50% of the MEPs and have a consistent number of mayors, somewhere around 80% of the mayors. That is, to maintain the mayors they have at the moment with very insignificant changes”claims the political analyst.
Thus, the good results in the June 9 elections will have a positive effect on the presidential elections for the two parties. But the situation can get complicated if there is an independent candidate.
“I am referring to Mircea Geoană, who seems to be the favorite of the polls and who can complicate the equation. Even if Mr. Geoană will not run, it is possible that one of the far-right candidates will qualify in the second round and in this way the success of the European and local elections will be eroded”claims Pîrvulescu.
An AUR candidate in the second round will have the effect of increasing the percentages of this party in the parliamentary elections.
In this context, says the analyst, “the simplest situation for the two parties will be to go with their own candidates and have them face each other in the second round, thus preventing other candidates from entering the second round and acting as locomotives for their parties”.
“Romanian parties do not accept defeat”
Thus, the situation will be split between the PNL and PSD candidates. But there is a problem here: “Romanian parties do not accept defeat. We are not aware of any party leader in the PSD, certainly, but also in the PNL, with the exception of Crin Antonescu, who would have resisted failure in the presidential elections”.
Pîrvulescu claims that if this scenario is reached – a PNL-PSD presidential final – the PNL would have an advantage, in the context in which the polls now show that the liberals have a small advantage.
“This is the reason why Mr. Ciucă makes those statements. But Mr. Ciucă is only in fifth place in the polls. Of course, after June 10 the situation will change. I expect that the pro-Simion and pro-Soșoacă vote will decrease significantly depending on the results they will have in the elections”the political analyst also explained.
The unknown Great Geoana
This scenario becomes very complicated if Mircea Geoană will run and reach the second round.
“I don't think that Geoana will radically change the structure of the Parliament, but his candidacy will definitely complicate the situation. And that's why the two parties are obliged to run separately and mobilize to prevent Geoana, but also the AUR candidate, from reaching the second round”the teacher claims.
If Mircea Geoană will not run? “Then it's simple, then I think it's possible to go with a single candidate”says Pîrvulescu, but there are risks. “The risk is that it legitimizes the extreme right and gives the extreme right a chance to reach the second round and be more represented in Parliament”, the analyst concluded. However, the professor believes that there is little chance that Mircea Geoană will not run.
“Unique candidate, but who is no classic pesedist, no classic penelist”
University lecturer and political analyst George Jiglău, president of the Center for the Study of Democracy within UBB, claims that the decisions will be made according to Sunday's elections.
“At this moment, I think that considering and, I pray, the potential candidacy of Geoană, going with separate PSD and PNL candidates is rather a recipe for losing the elections. It's quite a risk to go with separate candidates”the analyst claimed.
Assuming that PNL and PSD will get, together, somewhere towards 50%, probably a PSD candidate would be better placed for a possible second round, but the risk is quite high, says Jiglău.
Thus, the political scientist claims that a single candidate would be the safest option for the two parties:I don't believe in a situation where the PNL supports a PSD candidate or vice versa. I think he will be a unique candidate, but who is neither a classic pesedist, nor a classic penelist. I think it's the option that gives them the most chances to come out of these elections somehow well as an alliance and certainly, from the perspective of the parliamentarians, to be able to govern together afterwards”.
