Polls regarding the elections for the General City Hall of the Capital show varied figures in the last hundred meters of the electoral campaign. The research gives the current mayor Nicușor Dan, an independent candidate supported by ADU, and the PSD candidate, Gabriela Firea, as favorites.
What the latest polls say for the Capital City Hall Photo: Archive
According to an Avangarde poll, carried out at the PSD's behest, general councilor Nicușor Dan, an independent candidate supported by the United Right Alliance, ranks first in the list of Bucharest's options for the General City Hall, with 28.6%, followed by the PSD candidate, Gabriela Firea, with 26.5% of voting intentions.
In third place is the PUSL candidate, Cristian Popescu Piedone, with 15.2% of the options, and in fourth place, the PNL representative, Sebastian Burduja (PNL), with 13.8%. The AUR candidate, Mihai Enache, has a share of 7.4%, while the representative of SOS Romania, Diana Şoşoacă, has 5.3%.
The survey was carried out at the PSD's command, between May 29 and June 2, on a sample of 1150 subjects, representative of the adult population (18+) of the Municipality of Bucharest. The research was carried out through face-to-face interviews, at the subjects' homes. The maximum sampling error, at a 95% confidence level, is +/- 2.8%.
The figures contradict another survey, carried out by Insomar, according to which Nicușor Dan and Gabriela Firea are tied for the first place in the voting intentions of the citizens of Bucharest, with 28% of the voting options, followed by the PNL representative, Sebastian Burduja, with 18%.
Mihai Enache (AUR) and Cristian Popescu Piedone (PUSL) are tied for third place, with 12%, according to NewsBucurești.
The INSOMAR survey was conducted between May 27-31, 2024, on a representative sample of 1,030 Bucharest residents. The margin of error of plus/minus 3.1%, at a confidence level of 95%, and the validation of the sample was carried out on the basis of the latest INS data.
Who has the best chances
Sociologist Alfred Bulai explained to “Adevărul” that the final battle on Sunday will be between the top ranked, with the current general mayor having the most chances.
“But you don't have to go by these polls made at the behest of those involved. That is, in other words, we will see on the day of the vote what will happen. (…) A large part of people do not answer at this moment, and I do not mean only those who say that they are undecided or do not answer the question, but usually about 70-80% of those who are called I don't answer, I hang up the phone. The world is already annoyed by this kind of polling. On the other hand, I don't believe for a second that anyone has polled in (system no) face to face in two days, it's an aberration, so no one has done such a thing. In other words, they are only telephone. Phone surveys have their upside too, I wouldn't want you to think they aren't useful, but I seriously doubt it. So I don't rely on these politically motivated polls and not to inform the public, but rather to manipulate them. I don't know exactly how they were done, I mean we should have concrete data, not just what the law says you have to say – the number of people and the error, that's just a legal obligation. From this point of view, we'll see, it only lasts 6 days”, said the sociologist.
Alfred Bulai is of the opinion that changes could only occur if one of the candidates withdrew.
“Of course, more effects could exist today or tomorrow just on the idea that a candidate withdraws. No one will retreat. From my point of view, then there are changes, that basically some percentages remain that would go elsewhere. I don't think there's any chance of that, and anyway it shouldn't happen two or three days, if it's going to happen, about now, at the most almost a week before”, said Alfred Bulai.
So far, the main candidates for the Capital City Hall have not officially announced the organization of a debate on each other's projects.
