Over the past three decades, an area about one-third the size of India has been transformed from wet to arid regions, where agriculture is becoming increasingly difficult, recent research shows.
Rampant desertification of the planet: 40% of the land is arid Photo Shutterstock
Drylands now account for 40% of the total land area on Earth, excluding Antarctica. Three-quarters of the planet’s land surface has experienced drier conditions in the past three decades, and this phenomenon is expected to become permanent, according to a study by the UN Science Policy Interface, a group of researchers convened by the United Nations, reports The Guardian.
Africa lost about 12 percent of its GDP to increased aridity between 1990 and 2015, according to the report. Even greater losses are forecast: Africa is expected to lose around 16% of GDP, and Asia nearly 7%, over the next five years.
“Regions that have become increasingly dry will not return to their previous state”
Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), said: “Unlike droughts – temporary periods of low rainfall – aridity represents a permanent and relentless transformation. Droughts have an end. But when a region’s climate becomes drier, the ability to return to previous conditions disappears. Regions that have become drier due to climate change and other factors will not return to their previous wet or temperate state, and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
Certain crops will be particularly vulnerable: in Kenya, maize production could halve by 2050 if current trends persist.
By mid-century, two-thirds of the planet will store much less water
Arid zones are regions where 90% of precipitation is lost through evaporation, leaving only 10% for vegetation. By mid-century, two-thirds of the planet’s land surface will store much less water, according to the report published on Monday (December 9).
The global conference organized in Riyadh will end on Friday, December 13, 2024, being organized under the auspices of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s driest countries, wants to use this period of negotiations to reach a global agreement to stop land degradation and start restoring the affected regions.
A third of the world’s population already lives in arid areas
Despite hosting the conference, Saudi Arabia has appeared reluctant to address the climate crisis, the main contributor to global desertification. In addition, Saudi Arabia played an obstructive role in an important climate summit held last month in Azerbaijan.
The world’s water problems are becoming more acute due to the global failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to a UN SPI (Science-Policy Interface) study, as of 2020, about 30% of the population – that’s 2.3 billion people globally – lived in drylands, up from just 22.5% in 1990.
It is estimated that by 2100, this figure will double, if measures to reduce carbon emissions will not be sufficient. Almost half of Africa’s population already lives in drylands.
Climate collapse, linked to the global water crisis
UNCCD Scientific Director Barron Orr said: “For the first time, a UN scientific body warns that the burning of fossil fuels is causing permanent drying of many regions of the world, with potentially catastrophic effects on access to water that could lead both people and nature to disastrous tipping points.”
Climate collapse is “closely bound” of the global water crisis, according to a significant number of studies. However, harmful agricultural practices, excessive water extraction, soil erosion and destruction of natural vegetation are also essential factors.
Praveena Sridhar, representative of the Save Soil campaign, emphasized that healthy soils are essential for sustaining life on the planet. She explained that drying lands indicate soil degradation, and the main cause of this phenomenon is human activity: “Intensive agriculture is the main contributor to soil and land degradation, exacerbating biodiversity loss, decreasing carbon sequestration capacity and exacerbating floods, droughts and wildfires – problems that are growing rapidly globally.”
Solutions against global desertification
Experts called on governments to take urgent action. Mark Maslin, a professor of earth system science at University College London who was not involved in the study, warned that action must be taken quickly, given our dependence on land for food production, but also that there are still solutions that can be implemented: “First, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will help limit climate change and global desertification. Second, we need to recognize that the planet is getting drier and take steps to slow this process and adapt to it. We have a wide range of solutions available: sustainable agriculture, water management, reforestation and restoration of natural habitats, as well as public education and awareness. Ultimately, effective local and national management is needed to combat the desertification of this planet vital to life.”
Kate Gannon, a researcher at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Institute, pointed out that desertification deepens poverty, forces the overexploitation of fragile resources and accelerates land degradation, creating a vicious circle of resource scarcity, water insecurity and declining agricultural potential: “These communities, with the lowest adaptive capacity, face serious health, nutrition and well-being consequences due to the risks of food shortages, displacement and forced migration. This is not only a profound injustice, but also a global challenge.”
