The tensions within the coalition are reaching a critical point, after the PSD officially put the scenario of leaving the government on the table for internal analysis. The dissatisfaction of the social democrats, triggered by the adoption of the public administration reform, forces a reevaluation of the partnership with Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan.
For the removal of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, PSD would have two options, the determination of the liberals to withdraw their support or the refusal to continue in the current form of government, as USR did when the Cîțu cabinet was dissolved. Then the USR ministers withdrew from the government, conditioning the resumption of negotiations on the withdrawal of the nomination of Florin Cîțu, at that time also PNL president, for the position of prime minister.
A rupture, more “possible than ever”
Voices from PSD explain to “Adevărul” that “a break in the ruling coalition is more possible than ever“, the tension being high in the governing parties. Thus, the scenario of a breakup of the coalition on the model of the former cabinet led by Florin Cîțu is not excluded.
According to some sources in the coalition, the PSD has the option of the opposition, and the PNL the option of the minority government, which, however, would mean a blockage of the started reforms. Thus, the only option that remains is the triggering of the anticipated ones.
However, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan is very difficult to remove from the head of the party and the Executive, being above the political formation by more than 6 percent in the polls. In the party, for now, regardless of opinion, the liberals have no choice but to go ahead with it. “We will not change him because he wants another party. If we want to change it, we change it. Not that anyone else wants it”say voices from the PNL at the same time.
Can PSD remove the prime minister?
Political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu is of the opinion that both PSD and PNL are in a hopeless situation: “PSD has no clear future horizon. He has serious doubts, both about his own direction and about participating in government. There is no alternative of a majority without PSD, he would like to be removed from the government, but he cannot leave because he will be responsible for creating instability. It would be much simpler for the PSD to be removed from the government, only the PNL cannot afford this, because the PNL will become responsible for the political crisis”.
The social democrats have no alternative, they cannot remove Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan from the government, but they can try to weaken the PNL’s support for him. “I think what the PSD is trying to produce more, once the ordinance has passed, is to deepen the tectonic movements in the PNL. Not to leave the government. To deepen the tectonic movements in the PNL, because there is some movement there. Although the anti-bolojan discontent is not widespread, the anti-bolojan majority exists”indicates Cristian Pârvulescu
USR did not calculate the situation well at the time of leaving the government, in 2022, but PSD ensures that it does not produce a political crisis that can be blamed on it. And the social democrats have some levers they can use in the future, explains political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu:
“In these very complicated conditions, in which the PSD mayors will have some difficulties in the opposition, do they want to leave? And does Mr. Grindeanu allow himself to leave the government without knowing if he will return? Of course, President Dan is not President Iohannis. President Iohannis had a completely different style. And he also had the support of a party, as long as President Dan is isolated in Cotroceni, so he does not have the same room for maneuver and may find himself in a situation where the PSD will use the AUR’s threat of suspension to force him to create a new majority. That is possible. But not right now. So not tomorrow, not next week. This is possible in the future, in the summer”.
The political scientist explains that within the PSD, the group led by Olguța Vasilescu and Claudiu Manda, which tries to push the party in a more radical direction, “it cannot be neglected, because at the moment it is the group that capitalizes on the discontent in the territory. PSD to a greater extent than PNL, but also PNL and UDMR are parties of mayors. In other words, if a coalition of local elected officials is organized in PSD, the leadership is always ejectable”.
