The direct conflict between Iran and Israel will stop for the time being, claims international relations professor Valentin Naumescu. He believes that a potential link between Iran's attack on Israel and the unblocking of US aid to Ukraine is speculation.
US aid to Ukraine comes “at the 12th hour”, says Naumescu. PHOTO: Shutterstock
A few hours before the decision of the House of Representatives to approve the 60.8 billion dollars military aid package for Ukraine, “Adevărul” talked with international relations professor Valentin Naumescu about the potential effects of the vote of the American parliamentarians and about the situation of the open conflict between Israel and Iran.
Naumescu is a professor of International Relations at Babeș-Bolyai University, president of the think tank Initiative for European Democratic Culture (ICDE) and director of the EUXGLOB Center.
The truth: How will the conflict between Israel and Iran evolve, after the response given by the Israeli army on Friday?
Valentin Naumescu: If we are strictly referring to this military exchange, let's say, the recent military actions, I think it will die down now. For the moment, this conflict episode will die down, because Iran is neither ready nor willing to enter, at the moment we are in, a direct, major war with Israel. I don't think Israel wants a war right now either, and really has no interest in starting one.
That's why the two sides actually calculated their responses very well politically and militarily, so as to politically tick off their image objectives in the region, but at the same time not to produce casualties or destruction that would really lead to the outbreak of a direct war between them. Basically, Israel had the last word in this military exchange. I think it stops here for now.
However, the conflict does not end. It is old, it is historical, it is related, if you will, to the doctrine of the Tehran theocracy, which has as its stated goal the disappearance of Israel, so the conflict is certainly not going away.
“Iran's calculation is in the medium and long term”
What are we left with after this exchange of blows between Israel and Iran?
After this episode, the military conflict that I believe will die down for the moment, we are left with the idea that Iran has crossed another threshold, crossed another limit of its aggression in the region towards Israel.
It is the first time in history, since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, that Iran has directly attacked the State of Israel, and they wanted to punctuate this. This was a political objective of Tehran. To show that it is a beginning. As always, every great war has a beginning. They showed the radicalized factions in the Middle East that yes, Iran can afford, dare to strike Israel directly, even though they are not ready to go to a direct war right now. But this does not mean that in the future, in a few years, this will not be possible. This was the signal that Iran wanted to give, “we are strengthening militarily, we are no longer afraid of Israel and we can hit them directly.”
In the future, in the medium term, I look with concern at the situation in the Middle East. An aggravation of the conflict between Iran and Israel is possible, in the context of the emergence of more and more radicalized factions in the Middle East, because this is actually Iran's strategic stake: to capture on its side the radicalizing groups. Iran's message was to all those in the Middle East dissatisfied with the current political order. Tehran's calculation is in the medium and long term to try to attract to its side all the discontents that will arise in the Middle East.
Iran's operation was motivated by an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria). Do you think Israel will avoid such operations in the future, knowing that it can expect harsh responses from Iran?
I think that whenever the Israeli military forces and security services know for sure, or have serious indications, that they can take out military commanders who are involved in terrorist actions, in acts of war against Israel, they will do it anywhere in the world. They will find them and eliminate them.
We will probably see over the years how Israel will seek to eliminate one by one all the Hamas leaders who were involved in the murderous attack on October 7 last year. They have no escape, wherever they hide in the Middle East or in the world. Sooner or later, they will find them and eliminate them.
On American aid to Ukraine: “it's the 12th hour”
Some analysts say that this action by Iran, which may have been encouraged or even determined by Russia, had the effect of stimulating the US to unlock military aid to Ukraine. What you think?
I don't have enough clues to make such a connection. I think we are in a purely speculative area. I'm not saying it's not impossible, but I have no clues, no elements to support such a connection.
What effect will American aid have in Ukraine?
Even if the vote comes (the discussion is pure before the decision of the House of Representatives-no) – and I suspect that the Democrats will support the project, even if its formal authorship is Republican, and here I emphasize that it is not the bill of the Biden administration, but a project proposed by Republicans – it will take time for weapons and ammunition to reach Ukraine.
On the one hand, because weapons and ammunition are no longer readily available on the Western arms market. The war in Ukraine has effectively depleted stocks and there is a crisis at the moment, especially of ammunition.
So military production must be resumed. The Europeans have some plans to revive the defense industry, but they will only start producing significantly in a year or two. The reliable sources remain the American ones. The only country that has maintained a strong arms industry is the USA.
On the other hand, there will be a period of bureaucratic formalities, procurement, transportation and transfer to Ukraine. So let's not imagine that the day after the vote in Congress, the Ukrainian army will have weapons and ammunition. It's not like that. It may take a good few weeks, maybe a month, two, before the effect starts to be felt. And, I repeat, the situation is critical right now. It is the 12th hour, considering that we are seeing a terrible offensive from the Russians. In the east, the Russian army is close to the point of breaking the front, so let's hope it won't be too late.
