Elena Lasconi entered the second round of the presidential elections obtaining almost 20% of the voters’ votes. But, a week later, in the parliamentary elections, USR, the party of which he is the leader, recorded a colossal loss. At first sight, it seems paradoxical, but it is not, the sociologists stated for “Adevărul”. They explain in detail how mass psychology works.
USR’s failure in the parliamentary elections could influence Elena Lasconi’s chances in Cotroceni. Source: The Truth
How Elena Lasconi won the sympathy of Romanians: “By accident”
In the collective mind there is a delimitation between the notion of the president of the country and the notion of a political party. Although, in the present case, the two concepts, from the point of view of political ideology, are confused. Elena Lasconi, if she became the president of Romania, she would no longer be part of the USR. But his political vision will still be the same. Therefore, why this huge difference between the success of the USR leader in the presidential elections and the failure of the party he leads in the parliamentary elections? “The presidential elections are done by natural person”, sociologist Dan Petre explained for “Adevărul”. “The president is an avatar of the people, and voters vote much more for the person and his values than for the party or system he represents. These are also very important, but they are in second place”, the specialist also declared. Therefore, in contrast to the other presidential candidates, excluding Călin Georgescu, Elena Lasconi won by a landslide. “People choose the value and belief system with which they identify. And who are the candidates representing”, sociologist Dan Petre also said.
Lasconi, vs. “tired tadpoles” of Romanian politics
Bogdan Bucur, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences within SNSPA Bucharest, specialized in the historical sociology of interwar Romania, told “Adevărul” that Elena Lasconi stood out in the eyes of the voters, compared to the other candidates, from several points of view. “She has a certain speech, she has the verb, she speaks well, she is a charismatic person. In comparison, we have Nicolae Ciucă, Fr Marcel ciolacuthe other people she was competing with. Some elephants! It is obvious that for a reasonably reasonable electorate Mrs. Lasconi ticked off essential points, and this is due to her personality. She is a pleasant woman, she is pro-European”. Bogdan Bucur stated that Elena Lasconi won a few more points in the presidential election than the USR party won in the parliamentary election due to the way she presented herself to the voters. “These extra percentages are due to some talents, some personality gifts that made her stand out in an extremely unfortunate context, unfortunately, for our democracy. I am referring to the electoral context of the first round in which Mrs. Lasconi stood out. You could very easily single her out among some tadpoles who all had problems. Even Geoana seemed tired, with the same tired ideas. And Mrs. Lasconi was more lively, fresher in her speech”, Professor Bogdan Bucur also explained.
Sociologist Dan Petre believes that Elena Lasconi reached the second round of the presidential elections by pure chance. “Because some stars aligned. Normally, it wouldn’t have gotten there. There was no way he was going to get there. It was a unique confluence of factors and I don’t think anything like this will ever happen again. The reason? Romanians are traditionalists and are not willing to invest a woman in this supreme position. They are not willing to treat a woman in this important role.”
And yet, why did this happen? The main reason, in the opinion of sociologist Dan Petre, is the fact that the “heavies” of Romanian politics, PSD and PNL, were busy “to step on each other’s feet, to hinder each other, to fight, to attack each other. But, while these parties were engaged in all sorts of chicanes, two surprise candidates emerged from behind, both representing a non-system current. Something different”says Dan Petre.
The results of the exit poll silenced the USR leaders. Source: The Truth
The collapse of the “stick party”: USR cannot gather under the umbrella
As for the collapse of the USR, the system of ideas and values it represents is not representative of the majority for Romania, the two sociologists believe. “For Romania, the dominant system of ideas and beliefs is placed in the traditional area with which the PSD and the sovereignist parties are best aligned. This is the reality.” explained Dan Petre.
Continuing the idea, Professor Bogdan Bucur is of the opinion that the score recorded by the USR in parliamentarians, such a low one, reflects the level of sympathy in the Romanian society for this formation. “It’s a party which the Romanians sanctioned. The ideas, the vision, the principles on which USR was built have not evolved. They did not hatch, as, for example, we observed with regard to the AUR formation. It is no longer on the wave, it is no longer on trend. He only has some supporters and that’s it. We are talking about a party stuck at the gate in a percentage. He can’t grow any bigger. It is a finished party”.
According to historian Bogdan Bucur, USR does not have the power to represent the majority of the electorate, not even a good part of it. “It is a right-wing progressive party that does not have the ability to represent the entire nation. It has a very small representation in the country, being rather niche. USR fails to gather under its umbrella a majority electorate. It is not an umbrella party like PSD or PNL. It is only the stick of the umbrella, a stick in which he leans and which will never open.”
Cristina Prună is running for the Chamber of Deputies in Bucharest from the USR. Source: The Truth
Self-fulfilling prophecy theory
Before the parliamentary elections, Elena Lasconi came in second place in the race for Cotroceni. But the failure of the USR could definitively bury the chances it still had, the two specialists believe. “This vote has great significance because a theory in sociology called the self-fulfilling prophecy theory comes into play.” explains sociologist Dan Petre. What does this entail? The moment people see that things are a certain way, that perception becomes reality or begins to coagulate to a greater degree. “Let’s take an economic crisis as an example. One of the important reasons for its emergence is that more and more people are beginning to believe in it. And then they start buying less, they keep the money in the sock, they don’t do things that really help the economy at that moment”. Bringing this theory to the political level, we could witness an identical phenomenon: the failure of the USR was so strong that no one believes in its chances anymore and implicitly in the chances of its leader.
Lasconi, the USR locomotive that lost its wagons. What should he do to have a chance
For Elena Lasconi, USR has now become a millstone that she should get rid of, points out professor Bogdan Bucur. “The failure of the USR will clearly influence the vote in the second round of the presidential elections. This result should be like a shower of cold rain, attracting the attention of candidate Lasconi. And she should do something quickly. Let him even disown his own party, if he has to. Including such a move to resign from the party. Let her say that she wants to be the representative of all Romanians, of the entire nation, that she renounces the excesses of the party, go to the Patriarch and kiss his hand, say that she does not want LGBTQ…actually I don’t see how he could gather the votes of the others”, Professor Bogdan Bucur points out.
