A recently discovered asteroid, called 2024 YR4, has a 1 to 83 chance to hit the ground in December 2032. It is estimated that the asteroid has a diameter of 60 meters and is currently 43 million kilometers away.
The asteroid will pass extremely close to our planet in December 2032 Photo Frepik
This object near the Earth (Neo), discovered in 2024, has about half the width of a football field and will pass extremely close to our planet on December 22, 2032, writes space.com.
According to the NASA’s Neo Study Center (CNEOS), the asteroid could reach a minimum distance of 106,200 km. However, orbital uncertainties suggest that this approach could, in the worst case, lead to a direct impact.
Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called “Airburst”or could generate a crater on the impact with the soil.
“Chances have increased slightly to 1 in 83”said David Rankin, an engineer at Catalina Sky Survey and one of the astronomers monitor asteroids.
“This is one of the greatest impact probabilities for a significant asteroid ever registered.”
In turn, astronomer Tony Dunn posted on the X platform a simulation of the asteroid trajectory.
Where could it hit 2024 yr4
The asteroid was initially discovered by the Atlas project, funded by NASA, using its Rio Hurtado, Chile telescope. Later, Rankin rediscovered in the data collected by Catalina Sky Survey.
“We must keep in mind that the orbit is still too uncertain to confirm an impact.”Rankin said. “Most likely, the earth will miss. With new observations, the estimates regarding the trajectory will improve. ”
Even if the 2024 yr4 asteroid would hit the ground, it is not an immediate panic reason. Astronomers do not yet know much about this asteroid, and its characteristics significantly influence the potential damage it could cause.
“The size and composition are key factors in impact assessment, along with where they could hit”Rankin said. “Currently, we cannot accurately determine these characteristics, because the asteroid moves away. Usually, the best way to measure the size is through radar observations, but these are not possible now. ”
Astronomers will have a chance to better estimate these aspects in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will make a safer approach, passing about 8 million kilometers.
What damage could cause such an asteroid
“It probably has dimensions similar to the 1908 tunguska asteroid or the one who created the crater meteor in Arizona.”explained Rankin. “Therefore, the effects of the impact would be local, not regional, but could cause serious destruction in the area where it hits.”
The Tunguska event is the largest impact of asteroid in human history. However, throughout the geological history of the Earth there have been much greater impacts, such as the one from Chicxulub, 66 million years ago, which led to the disappearance of dinosaurs and two thirds of the life on the planet.
The Tunguska impact was less catastrophic, but it still caused massive damage. The explosion, equivalent to the detonation of 50 million tonnes of explosive, took place in the atmosphere above a poorly populated region. The deflagration shot down about 80 million trees on an area of 2,150 km² and possibly killed three people.
“If (the 2024 yr4 asteroid) is made up of rock, it could cause a huge atmospheric explosion, accompanied by a fire ball that reaches the ground.”Rankin said. “If it is composed of iron, it will cross the atmosphere without problems and create a crater at the impact.”
Rankin and astronomers around the world will try to find out as much details about the 2024 YR4 asteroid before 2032.
“We will be able to watch this asteroid until February using 8 -meter class telescopes, which we intend to do at Catalina Sky Survey”said Rankin. “It is possible that, after February, we cannot say with certainty whether or not it will hit in 2032. We will have a clearer answer in 2028, when it will become visible again.”
