We are few, old and sick, and in 10 years we will reach a negative record: Romania’s population risks reaching the level recorded after the Second World War. It is the warning of the latest United Nations report that should give us serious thought. The reason? The impact of the demographic decline will be felt on all levels, warn the sociologists consulted by “Adevărul”. And the most seriously affected will be the fiscal system in Romania, which will operate in emergency mode.
In Romania, the demographic decline is accelerating. Photo source: archive
In the next 10, 15 years, more than 1.7 million Romanians will retire, and this will put a fantastic pressure on the pension budget, economic analyst Adrian Negrescu explained for “Adevărul”. “Unfortunately, the exit of these people from the workforce is not accompanied by an increase in the birth rate. We urgently need fiscal measures addressed to families, to those who want to give birth to children. Measures to stimulate the birth rate”warned the specialist.
In such a gloomy context, however, a light can be seen. “Romanians who are now working abroad and who will retire in the next 10, 20 years will receive pensions from the states where they worked. If they worked legally, with proper documents. Some will receive a full pension, others a part of it, a part paid by the Romanian state. It depends on how much they will contribute. But yes, the pressure on the pension system will be high, even with this “help” let’s say from outside”the sociologist Robert Santa, coordinator of Rethink Romania, completed the idea.
“At this point, the pyramid between those who work and those who are retired has been reversed,” sociologist Dan Petre also explains the current situation. “Any healthy system is based on a pyramid based on more employees who can support fewer people on welfare. Which means that more and more money produced by those who work will have to be allocated to support the pensioners. That will put a lot of pressure on the economy, productivity must increase, which means more work and more pressure on those employed.”
We are left with no workforce and an economy that will stagnate
But the productivity we will need so much will also be on the ground, continues sociologist Robert Santa. “The population of Romania has, at least in the rural areas, a precarious level of education. And if professionals leave our workforce, they will have no one to replace them. Then, let’s not forget that also in the countryside we face a high degree of poverty. And because poverty goes hand in hand with lack of education, the forecast will not be rosy at all. Today’s children and young people will have little chance to access productive jobs to keep the country’s economy behind. Therefore, the older the population, the more we need to pump more on the productivity side.”
Attracting labor force from abroad could be a solution, but here too it is a back and forth, because we are facing another problem: Romania is not attractive for enlightened minds. “We attract people with a low level of qualifications”, sociologist Dan Petre also explains.
Therefore, in the opinion of the two experts, it is possible that in the next 10-15 years Romania will be left without a qualified workforce. “What will happen then? The Romanian economy will stagnate, it will lag behind”, the analyst Adrian Negrescu comments on the situation. “In addition, our daily life will be affected by the lack of services, there will be no more people to work in the field of health, education. In education, for example, over 60% of primary school teachers will retire in the next 10 years. Who will replace them? Who will continue to educate the children? Because in the end no one comes or too few come”, Negrescu also specified.
Sociologist Dan Petre points out another aspect: the demographic decline will lead to a stagnation of everything that means development and innovation in Romania. “Innovation is usually produced by the young, not the old. And I’m talking about technological innovation on the one hand and social innovation on the other. Technological innovation is usually the most powerful engine that produces well-being, that produces wealth, that produces economic development. Also, young people usually produce social innovation. This is about new ways of doing things. For example, the adoption of digitization in the public system. But there are many other ways of interacting with each other, other values, other mindsets that usually produce innovation and social change.
Mentality beats birth
We are talking about a global trend, a generalized phenomenon. “It is a change of mentality. In the last 20 years, I have seen a lot of messages in this direction: there are too many of us, the planet can no longer support such a large population, it is ok not to have children. And we see that this kind of message was present and had the strongest effects in industrialized societies, in developed societies. Then, the economic development, paradoxically, recently produces a decrease in the population. Because people are getting married later, having fewer children, they are more concerned with their careers, they are more concerned with their personal well-being, feeling good, enjoying life to the fullest. And somehow a combination of these two factors has led to this: we are fewer and fewer, and we will be even fewer.” explains Dan Petre the reason why we no longer have children or have too few.
Another reason for the declining birthrate is technology and the population’s easy access to technology. “Devices take up almost all of our time. I am reminded of a study in the 70’s which found that in India the introduction of TV in the bedroom lowered the birth rate. The fact that people paid more attention to screens at that time also led to a decrease in the birth rate. So, technology has a very big impact in this direction“. Sociologist Dan Petre recalls the current of women’s emancipation, then contraception which became very widespread and very accessible. “From the point of view of mentality, it is much more ok now than 30, 40, 50 years ago. Then, the legalization of abortion led to a decrease in the number of births!
Solutions
Demographic decline is a global phenomenon, and the probability of being able to reverse it is very low, experts believe. On the other hand, there are countries that have achieved results. France would be the strongest example in the European Union. Spain, again, achieved results in this direction. And in Romania we could witness a stop to the phenomenon if the authorities would get more involved. “If the state intervenes and offers birth reward programs on all levels, financially, socially, and communicatively, results can be achieved”, consider, in unison, the Romanian experts.
