The most recent opinion polls place Nicuşor Dan in the first place in the intention to vote at the Capital City Hall, while the second place is disputed by Gabriela Firea and Cristian Popescu Piedone. Sociologist Alfred Bulai claims that the decisive votes could come from the undecided Bucharesters.
Alfred Bulai: PSD-PNL strategy of having a common candidate for PMB was good Photo: inquam photos
According to the INSCOP survey, published on Tuesday, commissioned by News.ro, if the citizens of Bucharest were called to vote for their new general mayor next Sunday, among the 89.1% who expressed an intention to vote, 38.5% would vote for Nicușor Dan, supported by Alianța Dreapta Unită – USR, PMP, Forța Dreptei, 27.4% for Cristian Popescu Piedone, supported by PUSL, and 21.4% for Gabriela Firea, supported by PSD.
Sebastian Burduja, the PNL candidate, would get 10.1% of the votes, and the AUR representative, Mihai Enache, 2.4%. 0.1% of respondents indicated other candidates.
Another poll, carried out by Avangarde, commissioned by the PSD, placed Gabriela Firea in second place in terms of voting intention, with 24%, after Nicușor Dan – 31%. In third place was Cristian Popescu Piedone, with only 20%, followed by Sebastian Burduja, with 15%, and Mihai Enache with 7%. The proportion of respondents who indicated other candidates was 3%.
And in the survey carried out by Sociopol, at the command of Romania TV, Nicușor Dan was still in the first position in the fight for the Capital City Hall, with 37% of the votes, but in second place, at a remarkable distance, of 15%, both Cristian Popescu Piedone, as well as Gabriela Firea, each accumulating 22% of voting intentions.
Sebastian Burduja was ranked fourth, with 11%, followed by Mihai Enache with 7%. 1% of respondents indicated other candidates.
How we translate surveys
Sociologist Alfred Bulai explained to “Adevărul” that the results of these polls are due to the developments of the last few days, but those who are still undecided with whom to vote will have an important say.
“It's been a week since the idea of exiting the Piedone Dome has been circulating. In other words, surveys as they are taken a few days apart can also mean developments. On the other hand, surely all these polls have a margin of error of at least +-3%, so you don't have to see a percentage or two as actually having statistical significance. But they all say the same thing, that in the first position is Nicușor Dan, he probably has around 30% in several polls, it will probably increase by a few percentages because there are also many undecideds. In all the polls there are very high percentages of people who have not decided, so they do not appear in the options, but they are in the “I have not decided” category, so the chance to vote is high, it is clear that they will decide in the end , probably Mr. Nicușor Dan will also take part. On the other hand, as expected, in fact there are three candidates who count in almost all polls, it is Nicușor Dan, Firea and Piedone, obviously the most spectacular drop was Piedone for the simple reason that he had taken a majority part of the PSD electorate, a part of this electorate was recovered by Mrs. Firea“, said Alfred Bulai.
Common candidate variant
The sociologist claims that the PSD-PNL strategy of having a common candidate was good, although the person of Dr. Cătălin Cîrstoiu “it wasn't the best“, considering that, together, Gabriela Firea and Sebastian Burduja reach the votes of Nicuşor Dan.
Afred Bulai specifies that the voting intentions for Cristian Popescu Piedone cannot decrease indefinitely: “For two reasons: he also has his personal electorate, as he was mayor of both Sector 5 and Sector 4, in other words, even pesedists who are closer to Mr. Piedone's style, and part of those who actually support AUR- ul, because it is a bit like the style of the AUR leaders and part, at least, of the messages“.
“What is certain is that there are only the three – Nicușor, Firea and Piedone – who dispute their primacy, with chances in exactly that order“, added Alfred Bulai.
The sociologist believes that Gabriela Firea could recover from the current difference with Nicușor Dan, but that a new election loss could bring her image problems.
“The problem is delicate, in the sense that if it was proposed from the very beginning, Mrs. Firea probably could not be a joint candidate because she would not have accepted PNL in any case, she would have still had joint candidacies. However, Piedone appeared precisely because it was PSD's proposal with doctor Cîrstoiu, don't forget that some of the leaders who mattered from PSD reacted negatively even to the launch of the doctor. It probably never occurred to Cristian Popescu Piedone to run in that context, but he saw it as an opportunity and played his card to the end. But, I repeat, the game was probably much simpler, now it becomes much more complicated because, I repeat, it is a growth pool, Ms. Firea must reach 34-35 percent, but if Piedones are also in the race, and Borduja, we have to see. It's a matter that got unnecessarily complicated because, somehow, the PSD didn't want to appoint Ms. Firea and in the end ended up appointing Ms. Firea, only she has infinitely fewer chances today than she had then if she was proposed from the very beginning. (…) From my point of view, Mr. Piedone, if he decided to negotiate, he went to Sector 5 quietly and went about his business; thus, he can no longer be in the general or in the sector, and Vanghelie's entry into the race also raises problems for his son, in Sector 5“, concluded Alfred Bulai.
