The context of the four rounds of elections in a single year forces unprecedented situations in the strategy of the parties, which are late in announcing their candidates for Cotroceni. While the PSD-PNL calculations depend on the results of June 9, the opponents are forced to play within the competitors' electoral strategy, according to analysts.
The string of elections outlines the unprecedented strategy of the parties PHOTO Collage
In addition to the expected candidacies from the parties, representing the presidents of the political formations, in the public space there is also a candidacy of the Deputy Secretary General of NATO, Mircea Geoană, who, faced with the lack of support of his former party, the PSD, stated that the two large formations of the Coalition want to make it clear that without their support it is not possible. “It can be done without them. (…) after I finish my job at NATO I will decide, as I am increasingly inclined to do, to return and serve my country as I have done all my life”stated Geoană to Digi24.
The deputy leader of NATO, placed first in the polls regarding the race for Cotroceni, pointed out that the announcement of the candidates of the biggest parties has never been so late.
From the current Opposition, the head of the AUR, George Simion, announced that he is advised to announce his candidacy, but he backed down saying that the time to announce the AUR candidate will come. “My friends, sovereign people whom I trust, gave me an advice that will lead to the change of the party leadership and the AUR president. They want me to announce my candidacy in the presidential elections. The time will come for the announcement of the AUR presidential candidate”, said George Simion in an event organized in Târgoviște.
Also from the Opposition, in the polls, senator Diana Șoșoacă is ranked first, who was close to second place, ahead of Nicolae Ciucă.
In the case of the Hungarian Democratic Union, the leader of the party Kelemen Hunor also ran in 2009 and 2014, as a “gesture of honor”, ensuring the presence of a UDMR candidate in the race.
Possible PSD-PNL tandem
Political leaders from the Coalition have stated on several occasions that the decisions will come after the results of the June 9 elections, in this context the scenario of supporting a single PSD or PNL candidate for the presidency, with the other party becoming the prime minister, has been circulated. A European Commissioner position is now also on the list. In the meantime, however, the leaders of the two political formations compete in image exercises and speeches.
“I don't know if I will run for the position of president of Romania“, stated Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, arguing that his current challenge is to “lead this electoral coalition into an electoral alliance for Europe”.
On the other side of the governing alliance, former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă was presented several times as the party's option. At the same time, the PNL leader recently gave a speech similar to the one used in recent months by the deputy head of NATO, also claiming that Romania needs a new country project. “To successfully navigate the next decade, to transform challenges into opportunities, two ingredients are needed – vision and leadership“, is the opinion of the president of the liberals.
The United Right Alliance is in a position similar to the current Coalition, a context in which the USR leader, Cătălin Drula, stated that the alliance should have a single candidate in the presidential elections in the fall, but also the fact that, according to his estimation, if he enters in the second round, then he will become president of Romania. Previously, in an interview for Ziarul de Gardă, when asked if he would run for the presidency, the head of USR refused to give a decisive answer, but emphasized that he is “the leader of the largest party in this alliance”.
Opponents, forced to play the same strategy
“What is new in 2024 compared to other elections is the extremely short sequence between the local and European parliamentary elections in June and the presidential election in September. This requires a radical change in the strategy of the candidates. Strategy becomes vital. Including the time use strategy. The coalition has been making a plan since it called the presidential election earlier in September. Candidates like Mircea Geoană, George Simion, have a clear difficulty because they are forced to play within the electoral strategy of their competitors. They must show creativity, seamless strategy and extraordinary determination if they want to win in such a hostile environment.” former presidential adviser Valeriu Turcan pointed out.
Regarding the AUR leader's speech, the former presidential adviser stated that “the simple fact that he is talking about a candidacy means that he wants to create an atmosphere around the candidacy” and “want to show intent”but showing that the AUR leader is not in a hurry, in the context in which he is currently working for his colleagues, the AUR candidates proposed for local and European parliaments.
Political scientist George Jiglău emphasized that for the parties the results of the June 9 elections will be very important, pointing out that “it's a risk anyway” in the case of the announcement of a presidential candidacy by the parties, to “confiscate” from the attention that the formations want on the candidates for the other elections. “Always when we talk about presidential there can be two types of candidates, either they are somewhat expected candidates, i.e. party presidents, those with the highest notoriety from whom we most expect to be in the competition, or they try to come up with a surprise candidate , especially if those with notoriety are not seen in the polls or the results of the previous elections. When they don't go with the first chance and then they try to come with a person a little bit outside the box somewhat.” the political scientist also pointed out.
George Jiglău also pointed out that with the passage of time “all candidates are more likely to be known people. The possibility of surprise candidates is decreasing”also recalling the announcement of Cătălin Cîrstoiu at the Capital City Hall. “The way the campaign started, it might be a bet or a risk that they don't know if they want to take on the presidential race as well”Jiglău also pointed out.
The importance of the June 9 election
“They need the results of the elections to see if the percentages are confirmed, validated or not, and based on the results decisions will be made. Here we are also talking about PNL and PSD and AUR in equal measure. The only one who doesn't have a problem is Geoana. He doesn't have a party, but he will be interested in what happens in the elections”explained political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu, showing in the case of the AUR leader that the party's results will show whether the leader benefits from “a base of support” his in the presidential election.
The political scientist also pointed out that it will not be too late in the context in which “opinion polls don't tell us the exact state of the parties, but the elections”. Thus, “in the confrontation with the electorate, it will be seen which of the strategies is the most appropriate for the presidential elections”.
