The presidential and parliamentary elections will take place at the end of November-beginning of December, in a period marked by religious and national holidays, a fact that benefits the party/parties with a disciplined electorate and great mobilization power, say the specialists.
The president of the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu, obtained an advantage for the social democrats. PHOTO: Inquam Photos
Who benefits from the presidential and parliamentary election data? This is the question I asked the political scientist Cristian Pîrvulescu and the sociologist Ioan Hosu.
“From my point of view, the PSD and not the PNL have a clear advantage, although the PNL opened the discussion and that’s because the parliamentary elections are between the two rounds of presidential elections and on December 1. So everything depends on the performance of the party in the presidential elections in the first round“, claims political analyst Cristian Pîrvulescu, professor at the National School of Political and Administrative Studies.
In 2016 (parliamentary elections were held on December 11), the proximity to December 1 was catastrophic for the PNL, the professor claims. Why?
“Because conspiracy theories were used massively across the board in hybrid warfare. At that time there was no AUR, so the nationalist votes went to the PSD. Now, after 20% extremists in the European elections, we expect that this corridor will be very important and that it will be speculated by the AUR, which will take votes from the PNL to a greater extent than from the PSD”, explained the analyst.
“The tandem doesn’t work anymore”
In addition, the expert says, the options, as presented by the Coalition and as they passed through the government meeting, do not leave much room for the PNL, which must accept the given situation.
“Everything started from the premise of the existence of a tandem. I think that at this moment the tandem no longer works. At least, from today’s statement, in the meeting with journalists before the government meeting, of Prime Minister Ciolacu. It was as clear as possible that he would propose to the party congress the support of an independent of the Geoană type“, states Pîrvulescu.
He emphasizes that “an independent of the Geoană type” is not, in fact, Mircea Geoană: “It is a small difference that the journalists present at the scene did not understand. I fell into the trap too. And I thought it was Geoana, because that’s how the situation was presented to me. It is about an independent Geoană type, so not Mircea Geoană. If it was about Mircea Geoană, he would have said that he supports Mircea Geoană as an independent”.
That means PSD is still evaluating.
An independent candidate – not like Mircea Geoană, who comes from the PSD – who has no connection with the PSD, will appoint the prime minister from the political party with the best result in the elections. “So any tandem deal fails, so the PNL is brought into a complicated situation. He is answered by the PSD, from my point of view, with a point and full, so that he cannot refuse the offer”, argues the teacher.
This offer does not clearly benefit the PNL, explains Pîrvulescu, except to the extent that here the PNL will prove what it has failed to do so far – namely that it has political strength and manages to support its candidate in the second round. “Or, if Mircea Geană remains a candidate, we know very well that PSD will send its candidate in the second round, so the PNL’s problems are as serious as possible”.
Asked if he can think of certain “Geoană-type” candidates that PSD can support, Pîrvulescu claimed that he has two people in mind: Mugur Isărescu and Remus Pricopie, the rector of SNSPA.
Asked if the option of an independent supported by the PSD is not just a scenario as possible as other options, such as a tandem, Pîrvulescu explained: “If the congress, instead, decides that it has to go to the sacrifice, Mr. Ciolacu will go, but Mr. Ciolacu proposes the winning version to the party. The fact that he proposes this option means that he also supports it. Otherwise he would not propose it. His lordship told us that he will not be a candidate if the elections are not held in September-early October and he keeps his word”.
Who benefits from the data of the presidential and parliamentary elections
The configuration of the elections gives all the candidates a horizon of six months in which they can prepare what they want to communicate to the electorate, claims sociologist Ioan Hosu from Cluj, teaching staff at the Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babeș-Bolyai University.
“September was a not quite reasonable time horizon if you want to be serious and prepare your candidates. We do not have an emergency like the scenario in France. We can say that it is a win for predictability in the organization of electoral competitions, even if December is an unfortunate period because of the weather, because of the holidays, the mini-vacations”it details.
From a turnout perspective, despite the fact that there is a high turnout, probably also due to national and international contexts, “this triptych of November, December, December, with three weekends in a row, could be tiring for those organizing elections. Yes, and that means there can be quite a bit of human error. Attrition may occur for both the electorate and the organizers. It is very clear that it is time for Romania to think very seriously about the electronic voting system”the teacher claims.
In addition, says Hosu, “during that period is the feast of Saint Andrew (November 30, 2024-nr) and the National Day, days off, and these things usually do not go hand in hand with voting participation. People choose between going to the polls and doing something else. That other thing will negatively interfere with voter turnout.”
In this context, the parties that manage to better mobilize the electorate, i.e. the big parties, will be advantaged.
Preference for independents
Hosu noted a poll the other day that showed a preference for independent candidates. “The preference for independents is over 40% and I’ve seen somewhere around 30-something go on party platforms. In other words, we might see a repeat of the local and European parliamentary situation, where the independents won”Hosu points out.
In this context, both parties have a concern to find independent candidates or who can be considered independent. “Both parties, PSD and PNL, would find common ground with Mircea Geoană. We’ll see what they decide. Other independent candidates assume a time in which they will be present to the electorate“, claims Hosu.
There is a difference in the electorates of the two parties. “Here we also look at the PSD electoral profile. You have to give him the opportunity to get to know his potential candidate, and you measure, and see, and test. A candidate who would come from the liberal side supported by other right-wing elements can be “digested” a little faster by the liberal electorate”he explains.
Even the USR candidate, Elena Lasconi, could benefit from this interval to work on notoriety, Hosu claims. “Maximum 20% of the electorate knows details about what he did, what electoral offer he has. There are probably some interesting facts about her. At the moment, there is no public traffic profile to base an informed choice on”concludes the teacher.
As for AUR, Hosu claims that it is possible that during this period the fact that the extremely populist offer of the party – houses for 35,000 euros, reduced taxes and fees – will prove to be unsustainable will stand out more.
to the question “Who benefits from the data of the presidential and parliamentary elections?” a possible answer is – the big parties, with great power of mobilization and those with a very disciplined electorate. Small parties, on the other hand, can make their candidates better known.
