Nicușor Dan can attract the electorate of the USR and PNL parties, say political analysts Valeriu Turcan and Cristian Pîrvulescu, consulted by “Adevărul”. The fact that the ase liberals regroup and have their own candidate, Crin Antonescu, will complicate things.
Nicusor Dan. Photo: Facebook
Valeriu Turcan, former presidential adviser and professor of political communication and crisis communication at the University of Bucharest, emphasizes that Nicușor Dan wants to become the leader of the European forces and hopes to polarize the political scene in relation to the sovereignist or PSD candidates. “No Dan hopes to be the leader of the European forces, hopes to polarize in the relationship with the sovereignist or PSD candidates. It targets the anti-PSD electorate, from the big cities, the traditional voters of the right-wing parties, PNL and USR”says Turcan, emphasizing that he is counting on an urban electorate and voters in big cities.
The announcement of the liberals, who are willing to support Crin Antonescu in the race for Cotroceni and also have PSD’s support, only complicates things and makes Nicușor Dan’s mission more difficult. His political opponents will now be able to discuss the situation from the first term of mayor of Bucharest, when the people of Bucharest frequently complained about the lack of heat and hot water.
It is a perspective that recognizes the difficulties faced by Nicușor Dan in building a campaign of national scale, given that most of his electoral support comes from urban areas.
Next, Turcan observes that although Nicușor Dan proposes an ambitious goal – “he doesn’t want to take everything, he hopes for 50%+1”he will have to “prove he is capable of running a national presidential campaign unlike any he has run before“.
On the other hand, political analyst Cristian Pîrvulescu brings a different view of Nicușor Dan’s electorate, noting that despite the fact that many consider his electorate quite narrow, Nicușor Dan could attract a much wider and more diverse electorate: “He has an electorate and he can have an even bigger and much different electorate, that’s the reason why he won’t be an independent candidate”, says Pîrvulescu.
The fact that PNL and PSD are willing to support the candidacy of liberal Crin Antonescu only complicates things for Nicușor Dan, the expert believes. “Fwithout PNL, Nicușor Dan will have difficulty accessing an electorate from small towns and rural areas“.
In the race with the PSD, PNL, UDMR representative
Furthermore, Pîrvulescu notes that Nicușor Dan relies on a base of educated, urban supporters, with a mixed gender profile, but with a more important focus on education, saying: “Nicușor Dan has an electorate that is generally an educated, urban electorate, in terms of gender it is mixed, so balanced“.
Pîrvulescu adds that Nicușor Dan has a message that can reach various types of voters and emphasizes that this electorate is quite diverse: “His message reached all types from all levels of education, but we find that there is still a more important vote for Nicușor Dan in the educated area, bachelor or more”.
Cristian Pîrvulescu also spoke about Crin Antonescu’s chances and about the calculations made by the liberals and even the social democrats.
“Crin Antonescu is the object of a general consensus, until they have a final decision, but I don’t think they will give it up and then, being in this position, he has every chance to enter the 2nd round and has a very high chance of winning the elections. Arithmetically, all the parties that support him exceed 3 million votes and he will need another million, a million and so votes in the second round. Of course it’s complicated, but it’s not impossible”Pîrvulescu said, according to News.ro.
Things could be a bit more difficult in the 2nd round, if Crin Antonescu gets there. Even if the Liberals were to face a sovereignist leader, it is not very clear whether they would benefit from the support of USR voters. Even if they are not numerous, a percentage of 10%, as much as they represent, could hang decisively in determining the future president.
“I don’t know how USR voters will position themselves if they don’t see their candidate in the second round, but the arithmetic shows us that for the other parties the score will not be as easy to obtain. So we will have a significant difference of votes with a small reserve, however, for the second round. So Mr. Antonescu’s reserve will not be very large, it will be represented by USR voters, to the extent that they will show up to vote. I don’t think they will vote with the extreme right, although some were tempted to vote against the system. There is also the option not to vote at all“, Pîrvulescu raised the issue.
Regarding support from the diaspora, Pîrvulescu states that Nicușor Dan can win more votes than Elena Lasconi, with a well-made campaign, and especially if he will be supported by USR. “Nicusor Dan can achieve more than Lasconi with a good campaign”, says Pîrvulescu, noting that he should take into account the electorate from the diaspora, which is mostly conservative and has a connection with the traditional USR electorate.
However, Pîrvulescu does not exclude the risks involved in a campaign of Nicușor Dan who will no longer be able to use the thesis of the useful vote, as happened in the past, when the electorate dissatisfied with the PNL supported candidates such as Elena Lasconi. “Thesis vote useful that massively supported the transfer of votes from those dissatisfied with the PNL will no longer work”, adds Pîrvulescu, noting that “Ms. Lasconi got 1 million 700 to 1.8 million votes, it is not certain that the situation will be repeated“.
