With the removal of Călin Georgescu’s cough, Russia loses some of the influence he had begun to exercise and wanted to amplify in Romania. But the fight will not stop for a moment, considers the university professor Cătălin Avramescu, former ambassador of our country in Finland. “The Russians will try to continue to put the stick through the fence and do it by two methods ”, explained the specialist for “Adevărul”.
Russia will continue the hybrid rebellion in Romania. Archive
Once Călin Georgescu came out in the decor, by rejecting the presidential candidacy, the Kremlin will have to put another arsenal to advance. “He has it set aside and will definitely use it”he considers Professor Avramescu. How will he try to maintain his influence? Simple: and on the face and secret.
Putin wishes at any cost to reach the Danube
“The first method is to hope that due to the military offensive and, possibly, due to the negotiations will have a bridgehead at the Danube mouths. At the moment, Russia’s ambition is to take over the entire southern part of Ukraine to Odessa. At that moment, if it happens, Russia will practically become a neighborhood with physical Romania, on the map. Obviously, the Russian influence will increase. Let us hope that this will not happen, but we must be realistic: Russia will not easily give up this attempt to capture the Ukrainian territory to Odessa, including. ”
It is an older plan of the Kremlin to reach the mouths of the Danube, the expert continues: “A plan conceived just before the invasion of Ukraine. We could go further with the idea by saying that this goal is more important for the Russians than the capture of Kiev. We are talking about an essential strategic point. And he would shoot two rabbits from a fire: he would leave Ukraine without leaving the sea, but it would be dangerous to us. “
With Russia at the border, Romania no will do not do well: “I do not see, under the current conditions, the Americans to intervene. Neither Europe would have much to say. Can Turkey take a position in this regard. It is an influential country in the area. Otherwise … no one! “
How could we feel, concretely, the influence of Russia if we bordered the border? “Terrible!”, Said the specialist. “Do you realize what would have Russian troops over the Sulina channel? The Romanian navy, which almost does not exist, would be kept in chess completely by the Russian naval forces. Then, our commercial lines would be directly affected. The port of Constanța He would be threatened. The presence of Russia at the mouths of the Danube would mean a diplomatic presence pressed and hostile to Romania in Bucharest. I am not talking about the impact on the population in the area ”, he continued.
Cătălin Avramescu, professor of political science at the University of Bucharest. Personal archive
Russia will manipulate in its interest the deepening of the Romanian political and social divisions
The second method by which the Russians could infiltrate the internal affairs of Romania is the in progress: “They will continue to manipulate, misinform, take advantage of the political and social cleavages that will take place in Romania. Russia is very effective in hybrid, asymmetrical, informational war. And we must admit that he is very good at this. ”
The teacher believes that the role of Călin Georgescu will be taken over by other pawns, as long as in Romanian politics there will be easy people to manipulate: “Unfortunately, we have many in this category. I am referring to people who will be supported, encouraged, supported whether they know, realize or not (..) In parallel, they will support at least two players on the political scene. Have done it in other countries, they will do it with us too”.
Tangle them, hell!
The deepening of political polarization destroys the essence of democracy, and this Russia will try to do in Romania: “They will act according to the Romanian saying” Tangle them, hell! “, On the principle it divides and conquers. (..) Georgescu was just one of the pawns. But other names are conveyed. They said, rightly or unfairly, things about all kinds of people. Cosmin (..) There are people who either will, or without their will, or know, or do not know, are useful to Russia, play Putin. Some make it out of ignorance, out of notice, others do it out of incompetence, naivety or pride ”, says the specialist.
Russian secret services from the cold war knew how to exploit people’s wishes in a way: “And they offered them exactly what they wanted: those who dreamed of money, received money, those who dreamed fame, received fame and so on. But, they all had to pay a price, namely to sell their country. ”
Russia still needs these daughter and narcissistic people: “And, unfortunately, Romania does not lack. Therefore, it is sufficient in Russia to find weaknesses to these people. He will then press on these buttons and play with them as a child is playing with dolls. “
