The last month has brought several polls, each one painting a slightly different picture of the race for the Capital City Hall. Both the ranking and the percentages of the candidates change, but some common trends are also noticeable. However, the data points to a tight race, especially among the top four candidates, which may cause surprises.
The race for the Capital City Hall officially began on November 22, with the start of the electoral campaign for the partial elections on December 7. The last month brings a series of polls that outline the main picture of the voting trend.
Political scientist George Jiglău points out that all polls still include the intention to vote for Virgil Zidarul (Makaveli), although he recently withdrew from the race in favor of Anca Alexandrescu. This situation raises questions about the accuracy of the actual percentages of the candidate supported by the AUR.
“Ms. Alexandrescu I think is much higher, because I saw that Makaveli still appears in this poll (CIRA, published on November 28), although he announced that he no longer wants and cares about the percentages. We have learned, I hope, all of us, from the elections of the last year, that whatever the polls tell us, the AUR candidate is higher than the polls probably measure him. I think Ana Ciceala is also higher than the polls give. So Nicu Ștefănuță was also at the European Parliament. This is also the case for SENS at last year’s parliamentary elections. It is also a type of electorate, just like the AUR electorate, which tends to be less caught up in the polls.”explains political scientist George Jiglău for “Adevărul”.
Splitting the right-wing electorate
The polls so far indicate one more thing: “As we somewhat anticipated and knew well before the date of the elections was set and the fact that there are three candidates from the three major parties in the coalition, who are interested in Bucharest. The USR and the PNL share roughly the same kind of electorate and if they split it in two they have a big problem. Is this electorate anti-PSD. And Ana Cițeăla will certainly enter there, Vlad Gheorghe Gheorghe”shows George Jiglău.
It is about a typical electorate “anti-PSD and anti-sovereignist”, who “wants the perfect candidate, who can beat the PSD, can also beat the sovereignists now”, says the political scientist.
“The consequences are quite visible, now, especially in Bucharest, and I fear that it might cost them, in the end, the City Hall of the Capital. On the other hand, Băluță and PSD have a problem that prevents them from profiting from the breaking of this electorate that we were talking about until now. Namely, the fact that there are sovereignists, who clearly take votes from them, from the PSD. Probably Daniel Băluță, if it wasn’t Ms. Alexandrescu, in the story, would have won without problems, given the dynamics on the other side. The other side, which is bigger than PSD’s, is divided between 2-3, who did not manage to understand each other in time, or in fact were not allowed by PSD to understand each other in time.” George Jiglău also points out.
The division of the right-wing electorate is, moreover, the reason behind Gabriela Firea’s victory in the 2016 elections.
The chances are increasing that we will return to elections in two rounds
The current situation draws attention to the organization of elections in a single round, which is starting to affect more and more badly, especially big parties like PNL and USR: “They refused for so many years to return to two rounds, now they are pulling the strings, no matter if Băluță or Anca Alexandrescu beats them, or if he beats them now or beats them later, in the end it will also cost them this perception that they have held on to for years, that in one round they easily preserve their mayoralties, which comes from the PDL and from Băsescu and Emil Boc, since 2012.
It will increase the chances that we will return to two-round mayoral elections before 2028. It went to one round out of a political calculation, it was held on to by the big parties out of a political calculation, and we will go back to two rounds also out of a political calculation. And this does not say something good about our parties, even if they will finally make a good decision at the 17th hour”.
X-ray surveys
CIRA: Vote vs. expectations
CIRA survey (November 20-26 – Online, ±3.1% to 95%): Daniel Băluță (PSD) – 24%; Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) – 21%; Anca Alexandrescu (independent, supported by AUR and PNȚCD) – 19%; Cătălin Drula (USR) – 18%.
CIRA asks respondents who they think will win the Capital City Hall, and the ranking remains unchanged: Daniel Băluță – 27%; Ciprian Ciucu – 23%; Anca Alexandrescu – 18%; Cătălin Drula – 15%.
The survey was carried out at the behest of the independent candidate Vlad Gheorghe (independent). Not much is known about the polling house. According to termene.ro, quoted by presshub, the CIRA company has the same headquarters as Grupul de Studii Socio Comportamentale Avangarde SRL, Marius Pieleanu’s survey company. The company is owned by Vladimir Ionaș – 80% and by Marius Pieleanu, with 20%.
PURPOSE: Two rankings
INSCOP poll (November 17–19 – CATI, ± 2.95 at 95%): Daniel Băluță (PSD) – 26.6%; Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) – 24.2%; Anca Alexandrescu (independent, supported by AUR and PNȚCD) – 19.1%; Cătălin Drula (USR) – 11.6%.
INSCOP, however, notes a change in the rankings among those who say they are sure to go to the polls (62.9%). The data thus indicate that the mobilization of the undecided can significantly alter the outcome of the elections: Ciprian Ciucu – 27.1%; Daniel Baluta 24%; Anca Alexandrescu 21.3%; Cătălin Drula – 12.1%.
The survey is carried out on behalf of Informat.ro, by INSCOP, founded in 2013, INSCOP and owned by Remus Ioan Ștefureac and Ada Cornea Luca.
AtlasIntel: Massive drop for Daniel Băluță
AtlasIntel survey (November 12–14 – Atlas RDR, ±2 to 95%): Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) – 19.2%; Daniel Băluță (PSD) – 18.6%; Cătălin Drula (USR) – 18.1%; Anca Alexandrescu (AUR) – 17.9%.
Daniel Băluță’s score drops significantly compared to previous polls. There is also a close race between the top four candidates, with the differences being less than one percentage point.
AtlasIntel is led by Romanian sociologist Andrei Roman, the institute being founded in 2017. According to LinkedIn, Andrei Roman graduated from Colby College, has a master’s degree and a doctorate from Harvard. During his career he did research abroad.
COURSE: Tie between Ciprian Ciucu and Cătălin Drula
CURS (November 3–14 – Face to face, ±3% to 95%): Daniel Băluță (PSD) – 27%; Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) – 22%; Cătălin Drula (USR) – 22%; Anca Alexandrescu (AUR) – 15%.
Daniel Băluță is rated with the highest score this month, while the main right-wing opponents have an equal score, and Anca Alexandrescu registers his lowest score.
CURS was founded in 1996 and is fully owned by former journalist Iosif Buble, owner of Online Research SRL.
Vanguard: An old trend
Avangarde poll (November 2–7 – Face to face, ±3.2 at 95%): Daniel Băluță (PSD) – 24%; Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) – 21%; Cătălin Drula (USR) – 20%; Anca Alexandrescu (AUR) – 17%.
The survey data maintains a top of the ranking already known in recent months, with the PSD candidate in the lead.
In the case of Avangarde, founded in 2005, there are two companies. Avangarde SRL, fully owned by sociologist Marius Pieleanu and Avangarde & The Center, owned 60% by the same Marius Pieleanu and sociologist Vladimir Ionaș.
