The negotiations for the formation of the new Government reached a deadlock again, after the leaders of the parties of the former coalition failed to agree on the future prime minister. PSD has formalized its support for Sorin Grindeanu, while PNL, USR and UDMR go with the version of MEP Siegfried Mureșan. In the absence of concessions from either camp, the talks remain deadlocked, and President Nicușor Dan seems to have become part of the political confrontation, instead of arbitrating the conflict between the parties.
In an analysis for “Adevărul”, political analyst Cristian Andrei, founder of the Political Rating Agency, explains who stands to gain and who risks losing from the current deadlock, but also why the threat of early elections represents, in reality, rather a negotiating lever than a scenario with real chances of being implemented.
Romania is going through one of the most prolonged governance crises in its recent history. After the failure of the investiture of the Vestea cabinet, the balance of power between the parties of the former governing coalition was reconfigured. PNL, USR and UDMR are willing to support a possible PSD minority government only if the social democrats accept a political agreement that includes clear commitments, including regarding the reduction of the budget deficit. At the same time, the three formations designated Siegfried Muresan as a common candidate for the position of prime minister and propose a rotation formula of some minority governments.
On the other hand, PSD officially proposed Sorin Grindeanu for the position of prime minister, but refuses to sign the agreement proposed by PNL, USR and UDMR. At the same time, the social democrats categorically rejected the nomination of Siegfried Mureșan.
This move of the three parties does not seem to have been favorably received by Nicușor Dan either. In a Facebook post published on Friday, the president was visibly irritated by the position of the PNL, which he accuses of changing its approach to supporting a minority cabinet led by Sorin Grindeanu.
“We returned to the political deadlock that we thought we had overcome on Tuesday. Based on the positions of the parties from the consultations, there was only one formula that seemed likely to meet the support of a parliamentary majority: a PSD minority government. On Tuesday, the PNL committed to voting for a PSD minority government, with certain conditions regarding the government program. From Tuesday until today, the PNL has changed its position. It is the responsibility of the parties to negotiate a majority among themselves for any government formula that they consider appropriate. I am still asking them to return to dialogue. Romania needs a government with full powers.” wrote the president Nicușor Dan, in a post on Facebook, after a new round of discussions held with the PSD, PNL, USR, UDMR and Minorities leaders.
Nicusor Dan wants a government to patronize
The positioning of Nicușor Dan on the PSD side, a formation against which he campaigned throughout his political career, generated dissatisfaction among the supporters of the head of state, some of them accusing him of treason. Political analyst Cristian Andrei believes that this option is part of an older pattern of the relationship between the Presidency and the Government. He argues that the current dispute reflects a recurring conflict between executive institutions, in which each actor seeks to maximize their political control over the future executive.
“We are in an episode of a movie that I have seen for 35 years: the conflict between the palaces. The president wants a cabinet that he can direct and patronize more easily, according to his goals, whatever they may be. The PSD seems to be singing this score now, even though it is a siren song, to consolidate his own power. The president would win more if he let the parties negotiate, without imposing a prime minister, a variant that antagonized the supporters”, explained Cristian Andrei.
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In his opinion, the president entered a political dynamic difficult to control, especially after giving up an important negotiating lever.
“The president has to resolve a crisis and a political deadlock and regain the authority that has been damaged by the failed nominations. I think he has now fallen into the trap of getting involved in party games without the means to do so with few moves available. From the moment he dropped the threat of preemptions, he became prey to the parties.” emphasizes the founder of the Political Rating Agency.
The analyst also shows that the attempt to impose Adrian Veștea at the head of a government in which other liberals would have followed, without the consent of the PNL leadership, complicated the political negotiations even more.
“I think the president wants a solution where all the parties leave them alone, but that has become almost impossible, after he tried to impose on the PNL how to play, with a prime minister unwanted by the party. The political crisis comes from a lack of trust.” says Cristian Andrei.
Fragile balance in Parliament
The failure to invest the Vestea cabinet reconfigured the balance of power in the Parliament, in a context where no stable majority seems easy to build.
“All the parties in the pro-European camp have found out in the last two months what their limits are, and PNL and PSD. PNL has found out that it cannot have a prime minister as it wants, PSD has found out that it cannot put a government as it wants. Now the table is divided almost perfectly into three: populists, the right pole and PSD. They all have almost equal blackmail power over the others. That’s why no one gives in, because they fear that the other two could ally. So that, without negotiations and concessions, none of the parties can have greater power. No one trusts the other in Romanian politics.” says Cristian Andrei.
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In this context, the PSD maintains a breakdown option in theory, but this is difficult to put into practice, especially since the president Nicușor Dan categorically rejected it.
“PSD still has the “nuclear” option of allying with MPs from the AUR, but that also proved to be difficult. Now, just like with the motion or the vote in the Vestea cabinet, pressure is put on until someone blinks and gives in to the vote.” explained Cristian Andrei.
Anticipations, a theme of political pressure
Given this deadlock, the early election scenario also exists in theory. After the Vestea government’s failure to vote, it would be necessary for one more cabinet proposal to be rejected by the Parliament within 60 days. In this scenario, the president “may” dissolve Parliament. “Maybe”, but he is not obliged to do it, and the head of state ruled out this possibility.
“It is still a far-fetched scenario, which would also be a huge waste of time, it would not solve the crisis at all, it would exacerbate it. It is only a rhetoric of blackmail, to put pressure on the negotiations, to show that everyone remains on their positions and does not accept compromises. The PSD does not accept to be given conditions. The PNL and the USR do not give up their own prime minister and rotating. Through this speech of the anticipated, the parties also want to put pressure on the president, to force him to play as one camp or another wants. It seems that the stakes of the crisis have subtly shifted from who governs, to who controls the president.” concluded Cristian Andrei.
