Nicusor Dan and Cristian Popescu Piedone are in first place in two polls published on the same day, which present completely different figures. The only common point is the 3rd place, where the candidate of the Coalition, Cǎtǎlin Cîrstoiu, is placed, but with a difference of 10%. Analysts say, however, that the real fight will take place in the electoral campaign.
The results of the polls place two candidates in first place for the mayor's office PHOTO Colaj / Mediafax
A survey carried out by Avangarde commissioned by Digi24 shows that the current mayor from Sector 5, Cristian Popescu Piedone, would win the Capital City Hall with 44% of the votes, followed by Nicușor Dan, with 27%, and Cătălin Cîrstoiu, with 16%.
Another sociological research, carried out by Sociopol at the command of PSD-PNL, shows that Nicușor Dan, supported by the United Right Alliance (USR, PMP and Forța Dreptei), would win a new mandate with a percentage of 34%. The PSD-PNL candidate, Cătălin Cîrstoiu, is placed third in voting intention, with 26%, after Cristian Popescu Piedone, who is at 30%.
Thus, the two polls published on the same day not only place two different candidates in first place, but also present a result with a difference of 10 percent for the new entrant.
Where would Piedone's votes go
Mihai Enache, the AUR candidate, is placed in fourth place in the survey that makes the current mayor the winner, with 6% of the voting intention, while the other research places him at 10%.
If Piedone did not run for the Capital City Hall, 41% of his voters said that the vote would go to Nicușor Dan, according to the research carried out by Avangarde. Another 29% answered that they would vote for Cătălin Cîrstoiu.
The Sociopol survey was conducted on a sample of 1,001 people, citizens of Bucharest, between March 21-24, 2024, while the one conducted by Avangarde was conducted on a sample of 1,000 people, citizens of the Capital, between 20- March 24, 2024.
What the experts say
Regarding the considerable differences between the two surveys, the analysts point out that they depend on the way they are conducted.
“The way they are made matters a lot, the way the question is asked matters, the sampling matters. (…) How we choose which doors to knock on can have a huge influence in the end when it comes to results. (…)”claims George Jiglǎu, who draws attention to the fact that “two reputable polling institutes producing two polls with such different results does little to help the industry as a whole and the credibility of the polls“.
A similar opinion is held by the former presidential advisor Valeriu Turcan, who stated that the notable differences between the two polls are due to the difference in methodology, emphasizing however that someone “get it wrong and things will clear up in the coming weeks.”
Advantage for Nicuşor Dan
A possible withdrawal of Piedone from the race for the Capital City Hall is implausible, claims George Jiglǎu, who believes that for such an action he should receive something substantial in return.
“He's a possible winner at this point. No one would willingly withdraw once they enter a competition only to withdraw when they are in first or even second place. (…) In order for him to withdraw, PSD and PNL must offer him something substantial in return, and I don't really see what they could offer him. (…) Piedone was never interested in anything other than being mayor”says the analyst.
Thus, remaining in the race, the current mayor from Sector 5 would create problems especially for the Coalition candidate, Cǎtǎlin Cîrstoiu, says Jiglǎu: “No matter how well-known he is as a doctor in the world of Bucharest, he has a lot of work to do to identify himself in the eyes of the electorate with this position of mayor. (…) It could be that the Bucharest electorate still remembers Oprescu well, who came on the same path and did not end well”.
Political analyst Valeriu Turcan considers that “all three main candidates have certain advantages on which they can build their victory.”
“We still haven't seen anything from the election campaign. (…) A three-way game presents a certain advantage for Nicușor Dan, but I would not be so convinced that a possible withdrawal of Cristian Popescu will cause a massive migration of his electorate to Nicușor Dan. The incumbent mayor has a reasonable mandate, but not an unchallenged one. It is not over 65%, as the mayors considered to be very good, from cities such as Oradea, Cluj, Sibiu, Galați. That's why I say, the campaign will matter, the interest in the elections in Bucharest has increased a lot, and both Cătălin Cîrstoiu and Cristian Popescu Piedone have a corridor“, explained Valeriu Turcan.
At the same time, according to the former presidential adviser, the more the two new candidates in the race for the Capital City Hall delay the presentation of the program, “the more Nicușor Dan's chances increase”.
“The third candidate will try to compensate for the absence of the program with a special emphasis on the human side and a populist rhetoric”concluded the specialist.
