“Simion no longer controls the party very well” – is the diagnosis made by the sociologist Barbu Mateescu in an analysis about the future of the AUR. As the party tries to become “respectable” in order to be accepted at the table of power, the influence of new leaders grows, setting the stage for an internal confrontation that could culminate in the removal of one of the heavyweights from the top. At the same time, Ludovic Orban warns that the image game with Prime Minister Călin Georgescu is only an electoral illusion, at a time when the political crisis and the ignoring of AUR by President Nicușor Dan are pushing the formation towards greater isolation.
“Adevărul” talked to the sociologist and political analyst Barbu Mateescu, who says that the real stake for AUR is 2028. He points to the fact that George Simion no longer exercises full control over the formation, against the background of the pressures of political “normalization” of AUR. In this context, the influence of figures such as Petrișor Peiu or Dan Dungaciu is increasing.
“Simion no longer controls the party very well. The pressure to make AUR respectable has led to an increase in the role of people like Peiu or Dungaciu. It remains to be seen which of the three will join forces to pamper the third. When this happened in the past, in the case of Claudiu Târziu, it all ended with one winner. Simion’s pride and implicitly his fear of losing the party are significant. It will not be something quick but, just like in Târziu’s case, a confrontation that will be completed next year or later.”says Barbu Mateescu.
Electoral marketing around Călin Georgescu
Present at “Interviurile Adevărul Live”, the president of Forța Dreptei, Ludovic Orban, pointed out the lack of consistency in the public statements of the AUR leaders. After initially supporting the idea of a government led by Călin Georgescu, after the vote on the motion, George Simion declared that the party would like a future prime minister who is a member of the AUR. Orban believes that the party is trying an image strategy.
“What AUR does is electoral marketing. That is, they know that there are many Romanian citizens who sympathize with Călin Georgescu and, precisely to keep this audience close to AUR and to keep them as voters, they do electoral marketing around him.
Georgescu is sent to court for serious crimes. How to propose him as prime minister? PSD cannot accept such a thing. In fact, AUR supports this proposal of the prime minister, but strictly for electoral reasons, not because there is a real possibility of reaching a government formula led by Călin Georgescu.“
This theory is also supported by Barbu Mateescu, who says that the communication channels used by the AUR in public statements are also very important.
“I wonder if the information has reached the majority of AUR voters. If it’s not on Realità, TikTok and the parts of Facebook where they are present, the information has not reached them.“, declares the political analyst.
What’s up with AUR’s anti-system party label?
AUR is at an image crossroads: it risks losing the aura of the revolt party that consecrated it.
“At the level of people who do not vote AUR, AUR’s statements will continue to have the known impact. AUR will not change its tone and therefore neither will its label. At the level of the Cotroceni Palace, I suspect that, at least, Simion’s presence at the top of the party is relevant for the definition of AUR. Given Nicușor Dan’s clear views on the subject, the questions are good for after 2028. AUR is not in discussion for a government, the president being inflexible here. So the topic doesn’t really exist“, says Barbu Mateescu.
Ludovic Orban is reserved about AUR’s intentions and believes that, if they reach the government, they will lose part of the electoral support they enjoy at the moment.
“PSD will not accept to enter the government with AUR, no matter who the prime minister is, whether his name is Călin Georgescu or something else, and even less with Călin Georgescu. In this chain of scenarios, there is also a certain desperation to reach power. They are willing to enter government even in alternative formulas.
That is, there are scenarios in which it could enter the government without Prime Minister Călin Georgescu, with Sorin Grindeanu, for example. It wouldn’t hurt if the population finally saw what they are capable of after a period of opposition.“, declared Ludovic Orban.
George Simion sees a solution to such a scenario, and said Tuesday night that AUR is ready to enter government.
“We can assume a government under the conditions in which the proposal made by the AUR for the position of prime minister will be accepted and, of course, following the constitutional law, it will meet the necessary number of votes in Parliament, namely 233. Furthermore, we can only react to the statements of Nicuşor Dan, who announced that he will, despite the constitutional provisions, hold some informal consultations in order to later reach the formal consultations. Well, as long as we are not summoned, we will not be invited by the president of Romania to the real consultations, to finding a solution to get out of the crisis, we will not go any further, as we announced two weeks ago when it was about submitting a no-confidence motion, without support, without relying on 233 signatures and 233 votes, we will not be useful idiots.“
The anticipated scenario is not excluded, but it is improbable
A repeated speech by the leaders of the party is that of the anticipated, given that even the PSD would not want to govern with the AUR. On the very day of the vote on the motion, Petrișor Peiu, the leader of the AUR senators, declared for “Adevărul” that, if all political actors keep their word, early elections will be reached.
Sociologist Barbu Mateescu says that AUR has no chance to raise such an initiative in Parliament and gather a majority.
Ludovic Orban does not exclude the anticipated scenario in the current situation. The former prime minister is of the opinion that the PSD did not choose the right time to submit the censure motion, taking into account the international context.
“If a government cannot be formed and a crisis arises, then you have to hold early elections. There couldn’t be a worse time for the PSD to trigger this political crisis than when they did.
The international situation is extremely complicated and fluid, and this has an impact on diplomatic relations and economic conditions.“, concludes Ludovic Orban.
On Wednesday, May 6, President Nicușor Dan held “informal” consultations in Cotroceni with political leaders, one by one, to find a solution to the current political crisis. AUR was not invited.
