The public space is invaded in the last period of surveys regarding the elections that will take place during this year, in some cases the research indicates numbers with major differences. The specialists say that the surveys show a snapshot of the moment, but they mention that we must be careful about the way they are carried out.
Several polls present figures with major differences PHOTO Archive Adevărul
Several recent polls, conducted on different types of elections, showed completely different data. For example, the research for the presidential elections gives Mircea Geoanǎ the winner in all scenarios, and George Simion, with the potential to reach the second round, but there are major differences related to how Romanians would relate to the candidacy of Marcel Ciolacu and at that of Nicolae Ciucǎ. For example, in some scenarios, Ciolacu would not even get 10% of the votes, and in others, he would reach the second round.
A similar situation is recorded for the European Parliament elections, where the PSD-PNL Alliance is rated by one survey at 31.6% voting intention, and by another, at 53%.
And at the local level, for Bucharest, there were differences between the polls, in some the winner was Cristian Popescu Piedone, and in others, Nicuşor Dan. The common point between them is the candidate placed in third place – Cǎtǎlin Cârstoiu – supported by the PSD-PNL Alliance.
It should be noted that some surveys were conducted exclusively online, others – physically, at the respondents' homes, and others – by telephone.
What the specialists say
The political analysts consulted by “Adevǎrul” emphasized the importance of polls in the election year by the fact that they can show a snapshot of the moment, but indicated that things can change considerably during the elections. However, it is important to pay attention to the way in which these researches are carried out, say the specialists.
“So any time we're dealing with a survey we have to pay attention to these things about sampling, first of all, and even if we're given these standard technical things, that representative sample paragraph, margin of error, etc. All surveys depend a lot on how the operators do their work in the field or on the phone, depending on how the survey is done, what the questionnaire looks like, how it is administered, how the answers are recorded, so what we see is a picture of reality based on of a sample depending on how the field survey was implemented“, explained George Jiglǎu, for “Adevǎrul”.
In the same context, the National School of Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA) announced that it will start a research on the polls. The research will be carried out by a team of experts coordinated by prof. Dr. Alfred Bulai, director of the Department of Sociology of the Faculty of Political Sciences (SNSPA).
“It is mandatory for people to be aware that the value of some data presented in the public space is fundamentally related to the methodology used in the research. From this point of view, the online system has problems both in terms of the lack of access for a large part of the population, and the fact that it does not ensure control of the way subjects are selected”explained Alfred Bulai, stating that almost a fifth of rural households do not have access to the Internet, and in more than half of the houses with Internet access there is at least one member of the household who does not use a computer, so he cannot respond to an online questionnaire.
Alfred Bulai emphasized that statistical representativeness is an essential element of the validity and fidelity of research data, along with the control of the data collection process.
“Therefore, an important part of the population cannot become a respondent to an online survey. A survey is representative only to the extent that each member of the population has an equal chance of being included in the sampleBulai added.
What impact do polls have?
The rector of SNSPA, Remus Pricopie, draws attention to the fact that sociological research can influence public opinion.
“Online polls have become a tool in the arsenal of communicators and politicians to influence public opinion. (…) The results of online surveys must be viewed with caution, nuanced and without generalizations”claimed the SNSPA rector.
And the analyst George Jiglǎu considers that surveys can influence, even if they meet the methodological conditions. The specialist indicated “bandwagon effect”, which “it tells us that if a very clear winner crystallizes, confirmed in several opinion polls, everyone tends to get on the wagon that is with the winners, so rally to that position to contribute to the success that is looming “.
“On the other hand, there is also “the underdog effect”, that is, if there is someone who is significantly undervalued by opinion polls, especially in the case of those voters who may want to vote, but are dissatisfied, frustrated, refuse to vote with any party or candidate that is the favorite, then they will cast a kind of protest vote that goes to someone who does not seem to have much of a chance or who is there to fight, on the threshold of the election,” explained Jiglǎu.
