The latest opinion poll carried out by INSCOP regarding the preferences of Romanians regarding the candidates for the presidential elections places Mircea Geoană and Marcel Ciolacu with the most percentages, but another candidate came very close to the second place.
Elena Lasconi, Nicolae Ciucă, Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion, Diana Soșoacă. Facebook
In an interview published by aktual24, Remus Ștefureac, the director of the social research company INSCOP, shows that according to the results of the latest opinion poll, only Mircea Geoană would get a score of over 20 percent, in the voters’ preferences, but Elena Lasconi is on an upward trend, approaching Marcel Ciolacu.
“Things are pretty clear at this point: there is only one candidate who gets past 20 percent. It’s a somewhat atypical situation compared to any other presidential competition in the last almost 35 years. Basically, we have Mircea Geoană, the only one who exceeds 20 percent, then there is a group of candidates who are competing for second place, but quite close to each other, if we also take into account the poll’s margin of error (3 percent – n. ed.). Marcel Ciolacu is in second place, with percentages somewhere between 17 – 19 percent. Sure, they can vary. Next is Elena Lasconi, who has grown quite a lot in the last period, with percentages of 15-16 percent. George Simion and Diana Șosoacă – 13 – 14 percent, moving forward sometimes one, sometimes the other, and Nicolae Ciucă, with less than 10 percent, somehow lost in the last weeks, in the context, of course, of the numerous attacks that were directed at the government its”claims Remus Ștefureac, director of INSCOP.
According to the manager of the public opinion polling institute, the survey carried out by INSCOP shows a stability in voting intentions, regarding Mircea Geoan, Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion and Diana Șoșoacă, a notable evolution of Elena Lasconi and a decrease in recent weeks of Nicolae Ciucă.
Predictions for the elections: close score and decisive votes of Romanians in the West
In the same interview, Remus Ștefureac adds that the presidential elections of 2024 will be marked by the close score between the candidates, an unusual situation compared to all other presidential elections in the past, except for those of the 2000s, when Corneliu Vadim Tudor and Ion Iliescu.
“We were used to one candidate entering the second round with 40 percent, another with 30 percent. Generally, the candidate of the left and the candidate of the right, and the candidate of the right wins. At this point, against the background of this intense competition and a fragmentation of the vote and the number of strong candidates, I think it will be a surprise if they enter the second round with scores higher than 25 percent. The only one who seems to have this potential, at this moment, is Mircea Geoană, but it is certainly not mandatory. In general, I expect scores between 20 and 25 percent in the 1st round. It is possible, at the limit, if the competition will be very intense, to see a second-round candidate who enters with 18-19 percent, especially if we have a third place at a distance of one to two percent, a 4th place at a distance of one to two percent, as the opinion polls now show us, for example”, claims Remus Ștefureac, in the interview published by aktual24.
Opinion polls reflect the vote of Romanians residing in the country, added the director of INSCOP, and voters from the diaspora will have a significant influence in determining the winner of the elections.
“In the presidential elections, at least if we compare with the last election, when almost 1,000,000 voters came in the second round, if we refer to those elections, the prospect of having 700-800,000 voters from the diaspora – that means between 7 and 10 percent of the electoral mass – will significantly influence the performance of the candidates who will qualify in the second round. Especially if these differences will be very small. In other words, 2-3 percent extra brought from the diaspora means the difference between being or not being president”, Remus Ștefureac also declared.
