The vice-president of the Romanian Society of Epidemiology, Emilian Popovici, spoke about Disease X, the new respiratory disease, about which little information is known. He claims that more than 64% of cases have been reported in people under the age of 14, and the most common symptoms include fever and cough.
Disease X, the new respiratory condition PHOTO: Archive, Adevărul
The new WHO report published on December 9, 2024 mentions 406 cases of Disease X and 31 deaths, epidemiologist Emilian Popovici says in a post on Facebook.
The first case was identified on October 24. The number of new cases reported per week apparently peaked in early November. So far, all cases have occurred in DRC’s Kwango province.
According to the report, the 406 cases and 31 deaths indicate a mortality rate of 7.6%.
“For comparison the Covid-19 mortality rate was estimated to be around 1%, while the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak mortality rate was around 10%. Seasonal flu has a lower mortality rate than COVID 19. The number of deaths reported by the WHO differs from previous estimates. Initial reports mentioned, for example, between 79 and 143 deaths and significantly more cases of illness. Most likely, the difference is due to the particular carelessness shown by the WHO in the classification of cases”explains Emilian Popovici.
Epidemiologist: The number of deaths will increase!
It is also noted that several deaths occurred outside medical facilities and still need to be investigated. In other words, the number of deaths reported by the WHO will almost certainly increase.
“The WHO report further confirms previous information that the disease predominantly affects younger people. More than 64% of all cases were reported in people under the age of 14 and about 53% of all cases occurred in children under the age of five. Most of the deaths occurred in children; half of all deaths occurred in children under the age of five”says dr. Popovich.
The severity of this disease is difficult to assess at this time. The WHO report notes that most patients also showed signs of extreme malnutrition. In addition, malaria is common in this region.
“These and other factors could exacerbate the severity of this disease, leading to more severe clinical manifestations and an increased mortality rate. The causative agent of disease X remains unknown at the moment. The clinical manifestations are consistent with those generated by a virus with respiratory transmission”explains the specialist.
The WHO report also mentions that some cases appear to have occurred within the family. Spread among close family members is also characteristic of a virus transmitted by the respiratory route. But other possibilities of transmission, or even a non-transmissible etiology, cannot be excluded at this time, the epidemiologist states.
“And what is perhaps most interesting! The risk estimated by the WHO for the Kwango region where the cases appeared is high, for the Democratic Republic of the Congo it is moderate, for the region of Africa where the Democratic Republic of the Congo is located and for Africa the risk is low as it is for the rest of the world! concludes Emilian Popovici.
Pulmonologist Beatrice Mahler also drew attention to Disease X. “It is not a game or a joke, it is a disease that the international medical world is watching very carefully. (…)So far we know that it is transmitted through the air. The symptoms resemble the flu in the first few days. That is: fever, headache, cough, difficulty breathing. Later, severe anemia occurs, requiring blood transfusions“, says the doctor.
