“They canceled the presidential elections because they realized that the right people are not coming out. They will be taxed, however, also in the future elections, when the Romanians will also put their stamp on the sovereignist candidates!” George Simion said recently on the party’s WhatsApp group. The message targets the elections that will take place in the spring, when Călin Georgescu’s voters could vote for the candidate closest to the ideology and speech of the independent now removed from the race. How long does such a scenario stand?
Călin Georgescu’s electorate could migrate en masse to AUR. Archive
Călin Georgescu was voted by almost 23% of Romanians. Romanians who later found out that their vote was canceled, who now feel frustrated, wronged, who accuse that their rights were violated, and democracy died at the table of the Constitutional Court. And their anger will materialize at the polls in the spring. Will they vote in anger at the current political class? Or will they “lay down their arms”? “The voting tendency of the electorate, in general, is very volatile and we can expect anything”, three sociologists told Adevărul.
Defectors could be from both camps. The ball is in the court of the big games
“Călin Georgescu’s voters have every right to be frustrated. We only have the Court’s decision, and everyone must accept it. But where is the part where it is explained to these people that not only the voting process itself means democracy?”asks sociologist Gelu Duminića. “Democracy is a whole, not just a piece, and leaders should come out and explain these things.”
It is difficult to say how Călin Georgescu’s voters will vote, claims the sociologist who also comes up with some arguments. “It depends on what happens until the spring. It is very likely that many of those who were pro-European will end up in the Lehamites area that will lead them to an anti-system vote”. It then depends on how popular the measures taken by the new Government will be. “Let’s say he will rethink the pension system. Pro-Europeans who will feel their security threatened could place themselves on the other side of the barricade. Man can change his behavior depending on the context, the situation. When my pocket is touched, my way of life is affected, I’m very likely to change my mind.” sociologist Gelu Duminică also explains.
As for Călin Georgescu’s voters, they will not necessarily turn to the AUR leader. “Many who voted for Georgescu are not extremists. They did not necessarily vote out of conviction, but out of fear. They did not vote against the EU and NATO, they gave the current political class a vote of condemnation. Therefore, if a pro-democratic candidate manages to catalyze more through what he has proven in his professional life, many of Georgescu’s voters may change their voting option.”
The tendency to vote, influenced by political, social and economic factors
Gelu Sunday explained that everything depends on the lessons the parties have learned, on the candidates who will enter the race, on the people who will be in the Government, on the performance of George Simion in the coming months. “The ball is in the court of the pro-democratic parties. If at PNL Mr. Bolojan succeeds in establishing the authentic liberal spirit, it is possible that many of those who voted for this party in the past will return. Likewise, USR or PSD voters could migrate to the extremists’ side. Everything is volatile.”
The vote in the spring depends on what will happen not only politically, but also socially and economically. “If the euro jumps to 5.70, the world might go a little crazy. If Romania is no longer lent by international creditors for various reasons, it will not be good. There would be a very high chance that in the next four years the extremist parties will reach over 50%. Just like if the Democratic leaders do their job, it could drop to 15%.” said Gelu Sunday.
About cause and effect
Sociologist Dan Petre explained that in order to avoid ever having the experience of November 24 again, we must eliminate the causes that led to it. “We put effects before causes. It’s like a disease. We take a drug that reverses the symptoms, but the cause of the condition remains. And if GOLD he will be in the right position, most likely he will be the main beneficiary of the 2024-2025 elections. But I can’t go so far as to say that George Simion will win the election.” the specialist stated for “Adevărul”.
The expert believes that there are still a few months until the elections, and the situation is extremely dynamic. During all this time many things can happen. But one thing is certain: “Frustration and hatred are two emotions that immediately influence behaviors and activate many people. The likelihood that these people will break out of their behavior and go in another direction is very low.” considers Dan Petre.
The diaspora voted in the spirit of national identity. Sociologist: “A self-mutilating vote”
Sociologist Bogdan Bucur, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences within SNSPA, stated that the independent Călin Georgescu was voted by many Romanians from the Diaspora and their dissatisfaction with the Romanian political system should be seriously investigated. “Some very serious sociological research needs to be funded. To know why the people there are dissatisfied”.
The professor explained that in recent years Romania has recovered important ground, we have almost overtaken the West, our standard of living is equal to that of many European countries, salaries have also increased…therefore, against what exactly did Diaspora actually vote? “They said they want to go back to the country and be well. Well, they, with their vote, could have collapsed this Romania they want to return to. They voted for their identity as Romanians. An aberrant and irrational economic one. It was an identity problem for them”, considers the sociologist. “It is a contradiction between the political identity vote they gave and the economic resonance of this vote which is contrary to their desire to return to the country. They will not be able to return to a country that they are collapsing with their vote. This vote in favor of Kremin Georgescu was a self-mutilating one“, Bogdan Bucur also pointed out.
Solutions: “All old gaskets must be sent to the depot”
What should be done to discourage sympathy for extremist parties and leaders? Sociologist Gelu Dominică is of the opinion that the big parties should take a step back and give way to other voices. “If Marcel Ciolacu takes a step back, as do Grindeanu, Rareș Bogdan or Raluca Turcan, and people with other visions come in their place, then things could be different. It’s hard to exchange the image capital of PSD, PNL, USR with the same people”.
Sociologist Dan Petre believes that, in addition to this step backwards by the big parties, there is another aspect that needs to be addressed. “Internationally, the overcoming of tensions occurred when these non-mainstream parties were co-opted into power. Once there, they inevitably failed. Moment in which they lost their electorate. On the other hand, as long as these parties remain at the ideal level, they cannot go wrong. Because I don’t do anything. The bubble bursts when that party comes to power, but fails in what it promises to do. When these people reach the spotlight, their polish falls off, they make mistakes, they are no longer ideals. They are taken from the world of symbols and brought down to earth in the real world, where they have some inherent limitations. Until you go so far as to prove that you are not able, there is a reasonable suspicion that you are able.” the expert also pointed out.
