The PSD leadership decided on Sunday to submit several amendments to the Budget Law in Parliament, without an agreement within the governing coalition, while Sorin Grindeanu launched an unprecedentedly harsh attack on the prime minister. In this context, the scenario in which the social democrats would try to force the landing of Ilie Bolojan in the name of “government stability” was again evoked. However, political scientist George Jiglău points out in an analysis for “Adevărul”, without significant support within the PNL, the PSD cannot impose the replacement of the prime minister.
On Sunday, the president of the PSD, Sorin Grindeanu, addressed an open letter to the prime minister in which he accused him of choosing “multinationals at the expense of Romanian SMEs”, of implementing a policy of “governance for the richest 5%, austerity for 95% of Romanians” and of leading the country into recession.
In response, Bolojan said that the important decisions of the Government were taken with the help of the coalition, including that of the PSD.
“All the decisions we have made so far have been made with the consent of all parties. Through this game of amendments with a social character, the PSD is trying to come up with an AUR-type rhetoric, somehow trying to distance itself from the responsibility of this government”Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan declared on Sunday.
PSD and PNL threaten to break the coalition
In this context, PSD senator Daniel Zamfir, one of the party’s main communicators, said on Monday, on RFI, that the social democrats could withdraw from the governing coalition.
“PSD will not submit a motion against the Government of which it is a part. PSD, if the party decides not to continue in this formula, governing coalition and especially with this prime minister, PSD will withdraw from the governing coalition and will subsequently follow the steps to be taken. (…) Quite simply, we found that this collaboration, especially with this prime minister, is not an effective one and that it leads Romania first of all to social bankruptcy and we are not far from bankruptcy either economic”, said Daniel Zamfir.
In response, PNL deputy Mircea Fechet declared that the liberals could leave the government in the situation where the social democrats ally themselves with the AUR in Parliament.
“I do not hesitate to say the word that few say now. I do not rule out the scenario in which the National Liberal Party, if it finds that we have a new PSD-AUR majority, should go to the Opposition, let the PSD go about its business and govern with the AUR, if we find that things are going in this direction”said Mircea Fechet, at Prima News.
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George Jiglău: “The real question is what is happening in the PNL”
However, political scientist George Jiglău tempers the expectations of those who see in the PSD movement a plan with real chances of success in the short term. The coalition mechanism, he explains, does not allow the social democrats to unilaterally force such a change.
“The PSD may want this, but the key is inside the PNL. According to the coalition protocol, the prime minister is appointed by the PNL until the established rotation. Therefore, any change depends primarily on what happens inside the PNL.” points out Jiglău.
In other words, for the scenario to become a reality, the Liberals themselves would have to withdraw their support for their own prime minister. A condition that, although not impossible, involves a specific internal dynamic.
“For Bolojan to leave the head of the government, he would first have to lose support in the party or be replaced from the leadership position. So the real question is what is happening in the PNL and what plans are there. It is known that there is a camp that was not very happy with Bolojan’s leadership from the beginning.” shows the political scientist.
Why it would be irrational for the PNL to give up on Bolojan
Even in the conditions where there is a critical internal camp, Jiglău questions the rationality of such an approach from the perspective of the PNL.
“It is difficult to understand why the PNL would want to return to the formula that led the party to the very poor results of 2024. Bolojan, with all the criticism that can be brought to him, is the one who kept the party in government and even in the position of the leader of the government. In addition, he also brought an important electoral success after a long period of failures. The PNL was coming off a series of poor results, and the change in leadership coincided with a recovery. In this context, a return to the old team would raise serious questions. It is unclear how rational such a decision would be at this point“emphasizes Jiglău.
Another episode in a long line?
Beyond the specific scenario of Bolojan’s replacement, the political scientist explains the tensions of the last days in the inability of the partners to manage their differences internally, without escalating them publicly.
“These parties seem unable to talk to each other without quickly devolving into threats to leave the government, blackmail or media attacks. This is certainly not normal. This is a coalition that has, in a way, started with tensions since its formation. I don’t think any of the four parties really wanted this formula. But whether they like it or not, they are in government together. The problem is that these tensions frequently escape into space. public”, explains the professor of political science.
As far as short-term developments are concerned, George Jiglău does not see an imminent rupture, neither with regard to the state budget, nor with regard to the prime minister’s position.
“I don’t think any party is so irrational as to break the coalition or reach extreme scenarios. No one wants an early election, and probably neither does the AUR to rule with another majority.” concluded the political scientist.
