Romania is once again going through a political crisis at the governmental level. However, recent history shows that the power struggles were aimed at removing some leaders from the top of the parties in power. Sources inside the PSD told Adevărul that this situation will not last and the social democrats are willing to submit a no-confidence motion even next week. The government led by Viorica Dăncilă was also removed from the government with a motion.
The most circulated scenario for the next period is the submission by the PSD of a censure motion. However, the opposition is not as united as in October 2019 when, with USR and PNL in opposition and the minority group on the side of passing the motion, the majority voted for a new governing coalition.
How close are the fights for a majority in Parliament
PSD needs at least one fourth of the senators and deputies to submit a motion. Given that Ilie Bolojan has announced that he will not resign and today he obtained the support of the PNL, the next step remains an interim government that will be able to remain in office for 45 days.
Romania had such an impasse in September 2021 when a conflict with then Prime Minister Florin Cîțu led to the withdrawal of USR-PLUS from the government. The conflict started with the dismissal of the Minister of Health at the time, Vlad Voiculescu.
At that time, projects for local administrations were a priority for Florin Cîțu. The “Anghel Saligny” program represented a moment when USR and PNL did not reach a consensus. In the current situation, the reform of state companies is the main reproach that PSD brings to its governing partners, in addition to the austerity measures taken since taking over the mandates.
“I’m not bringing down my own Government. Let’s wait until the morning. Let’s see the documents. The bad for Romania has already been done: they associated with AUR“, Prime Minister Florin Cîțu commented in 2021 after the USR-PLUS announcement.
The Orban government and the vote of no confidence
A situation that can result from the consultation of the Parliament has a precedent in Romania. However, the role of the president is essential. In February 2020, the Orban government was dismissed by a vote of no confidence by 261 MPs. On February 6, 2020, Orban was again proposed by Klaus Iohannis for the position of prime minister. A situation that could be repeated if Nicusor Dan will be with Ilie Bolojan, but also the rest of the current governing coalition.
However, everything was resolved with Ludovic Orban’s resignation at the end of 2020, after a discussion with President Klaus Iohannis.
“I decided to submit my mandate as prime minister, after a year and a month in which Romania faced an extremely difficult period. The government, after my resignation, will be led by a member of the cabinet who will be appointed by the president of Romania.”said Ludovic Orban, who is abandoning the leadership of the government in the midst of a pandemic.
Unlike previous crises, managed under the protection of the state of emergency that allowed long interim periods, the current constitutional context is much more restrictive. Ilie Bolojan is forced to secure a parliamentary majority against the clock.
The rotary scenario is out of the question
One of the mechanisms through which changes of Government took place in recent years was the rotation of the leadership to the Government, but the scenario is out of the question with the withdrawal of the PSD from the government. This could be negotiated in a future coalition.
The government rotation between Nicolae Ciucă and Marcel Ciolacu represented a crucial moment at the beginning of 2023. However, the mechanism encountered difficulties due to the reluctance of Marcel Ciolacu to take over the government in an extremely tense context, marked by the teachers’ strike and the economic crisis caused by the explosion of energy prices.
Moreover, according to “Adevărul” sources, even if Ilie Bolojan had agreed to withdraw and propose a replacement, PSD would not have agreed to take over the leadership of the Government until next year’s election.
