Almost two weeks after the dismissal of the Bolojan Government through a motion of censure, the negotiations for the formation of a new majority entered the straight line. On Monday, President Nicușor Dan called the parties to consultations for the appointment of a new prime minister. While the scenario of a technocrat prime minister is gaining ground, political scientist George Jiglău, professor at Babeș-Bolyai University, warns, in an analysis for “Adevărul”, that the real problem is not the name of the future prime minister, but the existence of a parliamentary majority capable of supporting a government in an increasingly fragile political and economic context.
The first important political signal from Nicușor Dan after the fall of the Government was the exclusion of the scenario of early elections. The message sent from Cotroceni indicates that the president is trying to force the parties to quickly find a functional parliamentary majority, without pushing the country into a new election campaign. Political analyst George Jiglău explains, however, that this positioning should be seen as a negotiation tool rather than as an absolute guarantee.
“No Dan ruled out the scenario of early elections, but I don’t think this positioning weakens his negotiating power. Rather, he turned it into a premise of negotiations and a form of pressure on the parties to quickly find a solution. In reality, the message is addressed especially to the parties in the former coalition, which are pushed to fix, in one form or another, the situation created. Either all together or in different combinations, but still within the same political group. In addition, the clear exclusion of the AUR is another important premise of the discussion and narrows the options from the start.” explained George Jiglau.
The analyst warns, however, that the exclusion of the anticipated depends directly on the ability of the parties to build a majority in Parliament. In the absence of a political agreement, the scenario could inevitably return to the table.
“From the perspective of the president, if the parties do not get along and the nominations for the position of prime minister fail to produce a functional majority, then the scenario of the anticipated no longer depends only on his will. It becomes rather the consequence of the political deadlock. That is why I interpret this exclusion of the anticipated as a political intention and a starting point in the negotiations, not as an absolute guarantee that they will not happen. If things get complicated in the Parliament and do not form stable majorities, the president’s room for maneuver narrows considerably”specified George Jiglău.
The political scientist admits that there are constitutional interpretations that could delay the triggering of early elections, but believes that such a solution cannot work indefinitely.
“There is also the constitutional interpretation according to which the president would not be obliged to trigger anticipated. But, realistically speaking, I doubt that such a situation could be avoided indefinitely. Romania has never been in a scenario in which two successive proposals for a prime minister and the related governments are systematically rejected, with no way out of the deadlock. You cannot indefinitely have appointed prime ministers who fail to obtain the Parliament’s vote and an interim forever”emphasized George Jiglău.
The technocratic variant is gaining ground
In the absence of a party willing to directly assume the office of prime minister, the scenario of a technocrat cabinet or an independent prime minister is starting to be looked at more and more seriously. Names such as Radu Burnete, adviser to President Nicușor Dan, Anca Dragu, governor of the National Bank of the Republic of Moldova, or Șerban Matei, current director of the International Relations Department of the National Bank of Romania, have already been circulated in the public space.
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“The option of a technocrat prime minister is certainly a real option. In fact, at the moment, almost all scenarios remain open, except for a government with AUR, which the president has explicitly ruled out. The technical option only partially solves the problem, because it shifts the pressure from the person of the prime minister, not from the parliamentary majority that must support him. That is why it matters a lot who that technocrat is and what agenda he proposes. Names such as Radu Burnete or Anca Dragu have been circulated. and both seem quite close to the direction of reform and austerity associated with Ilie Bolojan. Maybe there are differences in tone or emphasis, but I don’t think there are major differences in substance in terms of budgetary discipline and reporting to the public sector.”explained George Jiglău.
PSD tries to avoid political costs
According to the analyst, the most complicated situation is within the PSD, a party that contributed to the fall of the Government, but which cannot afford to remain completely out of power.
“The PSD can refuse such a prime ministerial option, but the problem is that the party is in an extremely vulnerable position. Their main stake was the removal of Bolojan and the government associated with him, but from now on they don’t have many strategic options. They can refuse a proposal for a prime minister once, but if it comes to a deadlock again and the prospect of the anticipated, the costs for the PSD could be very high.” explained George Jiglau.
The professor of political science believes that the social democrats are trying to keep access to government and administrative resources, while avoiding public acceptance of the austerity measures that would be adopted.
“On the other hand, the PNL and the grouping associated with Bolojan seem to have fewer constraints at the moment. They have adopted a rather passive-aggressive positioning: “we have left you space, deal with it”. The PSD, however, does not really have the luxury of opposition. In my opinion, the party is now with its hands tied and depends very much on the combination of the will of the president, the positioning of the PNL and the ability of a possible technocrat to build a majority”. said George Jiglau.
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The big problem remains the formation of a parliamentary majority
Beyond the names circulated for the position of prime minister, the real problem remains building a stable majority in Parliament. George Jiglău warns that internal fragility in the major parties can turn any future executive into a vulnerable government from day one.
“Beyond the name, the essential problem remains the parliamentary majority. The president also insisted on this: it is not the person of the prime minister that is decisive, but the majority that supports him. However, that prime minister must have enough authority to be able to control the parties that support him and maintain parliamentary discipline. And here there are question marks, because, apart from USR and UDMR, neither PSD nor PNL seems to have a completely stable internal discipline”. declared George Jiglau.
In his opinion, even if a new Government passes the Parliament’s vote, the risk of a fragile and unstable majority will continue to hover over the entire political construction.
“That is precisely why, even if a majority is formed and a government passes the vote of the Parliament, there is a risk that the support will be fragile and unstable from the beginning. One thing is what the parties promise in the negotiations with the president, and another is the way they actually vote in the Parliament or the way they negotiate their internal interests afterwards. Beyond the names circulated for the position of prime minister, the real problem remains the solidity of the political majority that should support the future government”. concluded George Jiglău.
