A few months after the elections, Romania is going through a period of political and economic resettlement. Radu Magdin analyzes the beginning of the Ilie Bolojan government, the fragile balance in the PSD-PNL Coalition and the effects of the PSD Congress on November 7, warning that 2026 will be the decisive test of stability.
Radu Magdin is a political analyst, former adviser to the Prime Ministers in Romania and Moldova
The government led by Ilie Bolojan began the mandate with the promise of a governance based on fiscal discipline, administrative reorganization and measurable results. At the same time, the partners in the PSD-PNL Coalition try to maintain a difficult balance between economic priorities and public pressure, while President Nicușor Dan imposes topics such as corruption and hybrid war on the national agenda.
Against this tense background, where fiscal discipline meets the need for public trust, political analyst Radu Magdin explains why the success of the Bolojan Government depends less on cuts and more on how these measures are communicated and understood by people.
Bolojan governance between discipline and public trust
Romanians can only accept a disciplined government if they see meaning, equity and results, explains Magdin. “Three conditions matter: a clear timeline, protection for the vulnerable and monthly proof that public money is being better spent. Without this social contract, public patience will be short.”
Raising the minimum wage is, in his view, both a social valve and a political signal. “The measure works if it is anchored in a map of productivity by sector and if it is doubled by support for SMEs. Otherwise, we are just shifting the pressure to prices.”
The government must translate economic measures from technical language into examples from everyday life. “There needs to be a monthly public dashboard, Q&A sessions and independent validators. The key message is: We’re tightening our belts so we can invest. The narrative needs to be about efficiency, not punishment.”
For Brussels and citizens, Magdin sees the same map, but two different languages. “The story of the figures must include measurable and deliverable targets visible quarterly. For Brussels, predictability matters, for Romanians, utility.”
Reorganization, perception and trust
About the reorganization of the public system, Magdin warns that the tone and pace matter as much as the reform itself. “It’s not just about cuts, it’s about reconversion. We need a professional relocation plan, real competitions for essential positions and digitization to ease the work of those who remain. The message must be: less paper, more public value.”
Regarding the prime minister’s communication, the analyst believes that Bolojan’s sobriety can become an asset if it is accompanied by openness. “Serious but approachable. More business visits with unscripted dialogue, short video reports of what was done this week. Firm tone but not frowning.”
Magdin adds that the success of austerity governance depends on “small victories” and repeated, to counter the perception of permanent sacrifice. “The tripod of communication is simple: honesty, direction and evidence. Without monthly evidence of progress, the narrative of austerity will dominate.”
Parties, coalitions and the limits of populism
The relationship between PSD, PNL and USR is a functional cohabitation possible only as long as there is one “least common multiple”: macroeconomic stability, absorption of funds and public investment. “Ideological differences will require arbitration and a common timeline for deliverables. Without an arbitration mechanism, attrition will surface.”, explains the expert.
To limit the rise of radicals and populists, the solution is twofold: tangible results and fast feedback channels between government and citizens. “Disposable income policies are needed, such as cheaper public transport, affordable energy, housing support. In parallel, communication that acknowledges safety and identity anxieties without demonizing them.”, the specialist also shows.
As for the repositioning of the parties in a context of declining real incomes, Magdin is clear: “Less branding and more problem-solving is needed. Parties that deliver concrete packages for bills, credit and transport gain ground. The electorate sanctions the vague promise.”
The PSD Congress and the balance of the Coalition
The analyst believes that the real stake of the PSD Congress on November 7 is not only the election of the leadership, but the clarification of the party’s identity. “Congress must answer three questions: who decides, with what priorities and how they negotiate in the Coalition. More important than who you elect is to know who you are and what you want.”
PSD’s change of tone, with an emphasis on national and traditional values, is interpreted as a calculated repositioning towards a socially conservative center. “It’s a move that responds to cultural anxiety and competition from the right. What’s important is the balance: identity without isolation.”
Asked if this orientation can affect the relationship with PNL and USR, Magdin states: “Perhaps, if it turns into hard identitarianism. If it remains a focus and not an exclusivist doctrine, the technocratic partnership endures. The test will be on education, family and sensitive issues.”
For Brussels, this change does not raise any major questions. “It will be read as a ‘local flavor’ as long as it does not contradict European commitments. Europe is looking at the rule of law, taxation and development, not labels, but policies.”
However, Magdin warns that an ambiguous PSD would increase the tensions in the Coalition. “A clear and coherent party can stabilize the balance. An unclear one will generate friction and negotiations on a case-by-case basis.”
President Nicușor Dan and security issues
President Nicușor Dan brought to the fore topics such as corruption and hybrid warfare, shifting the focus of the conversation to integrity and resilience. Thus, the analyst believes that “the government must deliver the institutional hardware, and the president sets the moral and strategic software. This is about complementarity, not competition.”
The topic of hybrid warfare, says Magdin, can become relevant to the public only if it is directly related to the economy. “When you explain how manipulation hits the citizen’s wallet, the topic becomes mainstream. When it stays at the expert level, it stays niche.”
These topics also influence discussions of intelligence leadership. “Increases the requirement for professionalization and democratic control. Clear mandates, periodic evaluations and public reporting on unclassified indicators. Otherwise, the discussion remains abstract.”
Between the presidential speech on security and the government’s on fiscal discipline, Magdin sees a natural connection. “It’s the same story: safe house, house in order. Security without resources is a slogan, and discipline without strategic meaning is just accounting.”
Coalition responsibility and the test of 2026
The Coalition’s responsibility, says the analyst, is seen in the way it assumes the costs of its decisions, not just the benefits. “The Coalition is buying time if it shows that sharing power does not mean sharing excuses.”
About the resistance of the Bolojan Government until the end of 2026, Magdin is pragmatic. “It will last if it delivers a visible positive trend in mid-2026: investment, absorption, local projects completed. The pressure is off when you see construction sites completed, not just started.”
The stakes of the elections in the Capital remain a sensitive point for all parties. “Bucharest sets the media and symbolic agenda. In the Coalition, any result in the Capital is read as a national test. The solution is a local pact of non-aggression and measurable administrative objectives.”
Looking ahead to 2026, Magdin anticipates a triad of dominant themes: economic recovery, national security and, ultimately, the redefinition of left and right. “Their order matters. First the impact in the pocket, then the safety and only then the ideologies.”
The analyst warns that governments lose support not when they reform, but when they fail to explain, when they lose pace and when they fail to protect. “Three pitfalls must be avoided: reform without story, reform without rhythm, and reform without protections. The antidote is smart sequencing, social compensation, and empathic, not triumphalist, communication.”
