Analysis The demographic bomb risks exploding on the ballots. Sociologist: “New generations generally vote for parties perceived as anti-system”

Romania has, on March 31, 2026, 19,028,813 citizens with the right to vote registered in the electoral register, according to data published by the Permanent Electoral Authority (AEP). The number is 3,715 less than the previous month, when there were 19,032,528 voters. The figures reflect a constant trend of reduction and, above all, aging of the electorate. Who gains and who loses from this demographic dynamic? Sociologist Vladimir Ionaș, from Avangarde, takes an X-ray.

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In March 2026, the town halls deleted 22,115 deceased persons and 228 persons who were prohibited from exercising their right to vote or who were banned from voting in the Electoral Register. At the same time, 71 people regained their electoral rights after the expiration of the erasure period.

On the entry side, 18,557 young people who turned 18 during the month were officially registered in the Electoral Register, based on the data sent by the General Directorate for the Registration of Persons. The net balance, however, remains negative: more outflows than inflows.

Of the total number of voters, 17,975,124 have their domicile or residence in the country, and 1,053,689 have their domicile abroad and are CRDS passport holders.

Why are the town halls late?

Sociologist Vladimir Ionaș points out that the data from the Electoral Register are often behind the demographic reality, the main reason being the financial interest of local administrations.

“It is probably about the people who have been declared by the town halls in the meantime, because here is the main problem: the way the town halls report deaths and natural exits from the Electoral Register. Those from the Electoral Register, as far as I know, do not have access to this information until it is reported by the town halls.

Municipalities are often late with this information because they are not very keen on reducing populations. Mayors usually prefer to have a large number of citizens for more time, because that way they receive more money from the state, they have access to bigger projects, more consistent funding”, Ionaș explained.

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AUR and USR, the beneficiaries of the exchange of generations

The reduction in the number of voters implicitly generates a change in the structure of the electorate. Therefore, Romania’s active electorate is getting older. This is not new, but the political implications are reconfiguring from the patterns known over the past three decades.

“From a political point of view, the new generations generally vote for parties perceived as anti-system, as revolt parties. So, USR and AUR are at an advantage. Even if in the meantime USR is perceived more as a basic party, part of the system, AUR remains the main beneficiary.

With age, in the last 30 years, the electorate naturally migrated to the Social Democratic Party, which represented the interests of older people. Currently, however, things have changed: PSD no longer attracts as much of the electorate that is advancing in age”said the sociologist.

The myth of politically disengaged youth

A recurring cliché in the public debate is that of young people disinterested in politics, poorly represented at the polls. Ionaș believes that the picture is distorted by the way official statistics are calculated and presented.


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“I think it is an exaggeration. If we look at the turnout in the last elections, including the local and parliamentary ones, of the total number of young people between 18 and 25 years old, about half participate in the vote.

The problem is that the BEC reports the percentage of young people according to the total population, not just voters, so the result is an apparently very small percentage. However, young people go out to vote; there is a large percentage who do not feel represented or are not interested in politics, which is natural and happens everywhere. It’s not as important as some make it out to be,” stated Ionaș.

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The risk of ignoring young people by the parties

In the long term, an aging electoral population may reorient the parties’ agenda towards the dominant demographic segments, with consequences for programs dedicated to younger generations. Ionaș does not rule out this scenario, but qualifies it.

“It is possible, yes. Normally, over time, parties tend to orient themselves towards the more numerous and active segments. However, it depends a lot on the political context, on the events in the public space, on scandals, ruptures or the perception of the party at each moment. There are many factors that influence this evolution.” sociologist Vladimir Ionaș concluded.

What the polls show: AUR dominates at all ages, PSD resists only among pensioners

According to an opinion poll carried out by INSCOP at the end of last year, among young people between 18 and 29 years old, AUR leads by far, with 34%, followed by SENS (16%), USR (14%) and PNL (13%). PSD collects only 9% in this category. In the 30-44 age group, AUR’s dominance becomes overwhelming: 50%, against 18% USR and 11% PNL. PSD drops to 8%.

Things change significantly at the age of 45-59. AUR remains first, with 41%, but PNL rises to 19%, PSD to 15%, and USR falls to 12%. At over 60, the only age group where PSD returns to first place, with 38%, AUR follows closely, with 28%, and PNL takes 15%. In total voters, AUR leads with 38%, followed by PSD with 19.5%, PNL with 14.6% and USR with 12.3%.


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Romania is aging rapidly

According to the data of the National Institute of Statistics, on January 1, 2026, the population of Romania reached 21.6 million people, down by 0.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. The decline hits harder in the urban environment, where the population decreased by 0.9%, reaching around 11.948 million people, while the rural environment recorded a symbolic increase of 0.04%, to 9.697 million inhabitants.

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The demographic aging process intensified in 2025. The share of young people between 0 and 14 years decreased by 0.3 percentage points, while the share of the elderly population, over 65, increased by the same percentage. The demographic aging index rose from 131.7 to 136.6 elderly people per hundred young people in just one year.

The average age of the population reached 43.2 years, 0.4 years higher compared to January 1, 2025, and the median age was 44.3 years. The largest age group in Romania is now 45-49 years old, with a share of 8.6% of the total population. At the opposite pole, the group 0-4 years represents only 4%, less than the groups 5-9 years (4.9%), 10-14 years (4.8%) or even 15-19 years (5.2%).