The Ilie Bolojan government crosses the most tense period since installation. While the PSD-PNL-UR-UDMR coalition is tested by the Reforms Packaged by Brussels and the wave of social dissatisfaction caused by the austerity measures, inflation has almost completely deleted the salary increases of 2024, and according to the NIS data, resumed in an analysis of the course of Romania. At the same time, the PSD, the largest party in the coalition, is preparing for the November 7 Congress and officially gives up the deadline “progressive” from the statute. But almost no one talks about the elections in Bucharest.
K. Hunor, D Fritz, I. Bolojan, S. Grindeanu and V. Pambuccian. Photo: Inquam Photos
The political consultant Cristian Andrei, from the Political Rating Agency, offers for Adevarul.ro an analysis of the current political context: from the fragility of the ruling coalition and the PSD strategy focused on the traditional values, to the role assumed by President Nicușor Dan and the tacit consensus of the political leaders on the postponement of the local elections in the Capital.
Reforms required by Brussels and fear of populism
Cristian Andrei believes that the major political risk is not the collapse of the government, but the prolonged blockage. “We know from the past government that stability only for the sake of not falling the government can sometimes be much more toxic. Because frustrations are accumulated. The greater political risk is, therefore, of politically, that no real reform is achieved, not to solve the chronic problems in the budget, energy, administration.”says the consultant.
In his opinion, the lack of credible alternatives outside the coalition maintains the stagnation. “Unfortunately, some see in populism and extremism, as they did in 2022-2024, an opportunity to stay in power under any conditions, for an unlimited term, without changing something. The high score of populist parties inhibits reforms today, instead of encouraging them. In the short term the coalition will go forward, but it will be struggling.”
Political consultant Cristian Andrei. Photo: Facebook
Inflation eroded the confidence and legitimacy of the government
This while the economic effects are directly felt in the public perception. Cristian Andrei notes that inflation has become a test of political legitimacy. “It is difficult to have solid legitimacy when the coalition speaks on several voices. Now we are in a situation where the coalition parties are in a competition, not in a state of cooperation. And for this reason there is no clear horizon in the future to convince people that these economic costs will lead to a good result.”the consultant shows.
“You cannot tell a people that they have to suffer for a while, without showing a direction and without showing that these costs are equitably divided. This shakes the confidence and ability of the parties to communicate and explain to the people the decrease of the purchasing power. And it also shakes the business environment in investing.” he completes.
PSD gives up progressing and approaches conservative themes
In parallel, PSD redefines its political position. The November Congress marks a change of speech, with the elimination of the deadline “progressive”.
However, Cristian Andrei believes that this move is rather image. “It is a rather superficial, surface idea, which rather masks or hides the causes for which the PSD has reached the repeated failure of the elections. If someone imagines that the radicalized and hostile electorate can be recovered, it is wrong.”
According to the consultant, the Social Democratic Party is caught in a dilemma from which he does not know how to get out: “Certainly the PSD is in a strategic dilemma that he does not know how to solve, he can fall between chairs in the new polarization in society that sharpens and will try to mimic populist themes, he will try to imitate this discourse. Probably without success.”
The opposition inside the government
Social Democrats are preparing to play two roles, one in government and at the same time internal opponent, the expert believes. “The PSD will play in the coming years the role of the opponent in government, with a populist agenda. They did this in 2022-2024 and they have collapsed. Without leaders with a high level of trust, it is difficult to succeed.” he says.
This double strategy, it shows, can even tense the relationship with Brussels. “In order to achieve this, the PSD needs popular leaders or with a great confidence, and this was one of the big problems of the last 7-8 years of this party. I do not think that the PSD is prepared today to play an all-in party that would oppose, even pragmatically, to the EU policies and it would have the ability to come to this point.
Bucharest, a hot topic avoided by everyone
One of the topics that have deepened the tensions in the coalition is that of organizing the elections for the Capital City Hall. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan would have been willing to accept the postponement of the election for the spring of 2026, a variant desired by the PSD.
“First of all I think that the politicians in the coalition do not really understand what the Bucharest people would vote. And they are right, because they can be great surprises.”says Andrei.
“That is why everyone wants the elections in Bucharest to remain a secondary stake, in relation to other governance topics and therefore no one, including the president, does not want to amplify the coalition tensions on this subject. Organizing elections in Bucharest would complicate many other things: they would create problems in the power relations in the PSD; PNL, who now holds the interim mayor; the consultant detailed.
In his opinion, President Nicușor Dan may have a preference for a candidate of the right, but he will not force the moment.
Crime of communication of Bolojan coalition
Above all, the current governance no longer manages to reach the ears of the Romanians at all. “Their challenge is to talk to all the Romanians, because now they do not reach or pass the screen to half of the voters. They must leave the dusty communication schemes in which they communicate only for their own voters, for their own resonance rooms.”
He believes that the only solution is the return to the message that convinced the world to vote: “Change and honesty. Indeed, it is difficult to ask for politicians to change, and even some to go away. But someone has to lead this message of change, but there are not many capable of doing so.”
Gold, the main beneficiary of austerity
The consultant observes that the lack of a real opposition has left space for radical parties. “The lack of opposition variants will make there a competition for this audience frustrated by the economic and social problems that accumulate now. From here and the paralysis of some government to take firm measures, because they have the impression that they will lose votes.”
According to Andrei, “The extremely large land busy today will be coveted by many political forces, probably some new ones. It is still a substantial difference between those who were already unhappy, who hate the establishment, many in number, which I have seen in the presidential, and those who now find that they have to bear some economic costs, without a clear, The moment solution, for the second category there is still no political offer.
What should the coalition learn from CDR, USL or other national union governments
The political consultant says that when each party plays on their own, they will all lose, and the government will collapse, and once it and public confidence. “The lack of a major project on which everyone agrees, one that will ensure social, economic, political solidarity, will take everyone down.”
Nicușor Dan defines his presidential agenda
As for President Nicușor Dan, Cristian Andrei says he is increasingly outlining his political profile through the topics he promotes.
Nicuşor Dan began to build his political and public agenda. It is only through these themes that he will be a player and in what way. There are two large, transverse themes, which by impact in society and political class will certainly create new political polarizations, new political struggles. There are topics that have an active role in the president, including through that coordination within the CSAT they want. In both themes, the secret services would have a big role, and this will greatly increase the tension in the appointment of the heads of these institutions, the desire of the parties to have a say to their appointment will increase. In the longer term, the tension between the president and the parties will increase, “the political consultant pointed out.
About possible suspension and the report of political forces
As regards speculation about a possible suspension, in the context in which the president stated that “He sees no argument” and that such an approach would be “Very serious” And if it is a defensive reaction or a form of presidential image consolidation, the political consultant believes that “Nicușor Dan knows that today he has a majority of the public behind him, that he has a pretty high support and would be a suicide gesture from a coalition party to get out of a row and to join a golden approach. It is difficult to justify the moderate people in Romania, even under the effect of decreasing the level of living. now. ”
