5,700 cases of flu were registered in Romania last week. That is 88% more than in the previous week. The doctor Octavian Jurma says that in the previous seasons this figure was only reached at the top, by no means before the Holidays, and he believes that the health authorities should inform the population. ,“There is no panic when you announce that the storm is coming”says the doctor.
Influenza cases are doubling from one week to the next
The increase in the number of flu cases caught the attention of the doctor, who analyzes the data reported weekly by the INSP.
“5,700 cases is above the peak of the 2022-2023 flu season. (…) The problem is that it’s the fourth week of almost 100% growth, that is, of doubling the number of cases from one week to the next. We’ve only had such an aggressive increase in the last few flu seasons, for a shorter period of time and which took place at the end of January. We usually witness these fulminant increases after the Holiday period, which naturally mixes and allows a circulation of the virus”.
Octavian Jurma warns that, at the current rate, the number of cases could reach 10,000 between Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
In Romania, INSP; through the National Center for Communicable Disease Surveillance and Control, publicly reports the number of influenza cases divided by major global virus type (A or B). So we don’t know if the mutated version of the A virus, which filled the hospitals in Great Britain, also reached Romania.
“The H3N2 branch, subclade K, produces slightly more severe forms of the disease than the H1 variant that was dominant last year. (…) From a clinical point of view, the disease is not much worse, that’s the good part. But having many more cases translates into higher numbers in hospitals. And that’s why hospitals should be prepared, or at least doctors should be told to prepare for a bigger wave of admissions. (…) admissions usually occur in the second phase of the wave, after the peak is reached, in the descending phase.”, warns the doctor.
The symptoms for the new form are those typical of the flu.
The doctor’s message to the authorities
Octavian Jurma says that the authorities should show responsibility and warn the population.
“From my point of view, the Ministry of Health should inform the population that we are in an unusual, atypical situation. This unusual wave has already been followed for two months, especially in Great Britain, where we have very good epidemiological monitoring. We know what awaits us and, just like in the waves of COVID, we always have the impression that they won’t hit us and of course they do. (…) A minimum of information can help us a lot to avoid. For example, if we are symptomatic and if we want to leave the house, put on a mask, just like it happens everywhere”.
Asked if the authorities are afraid to warn about the risk, influenced by the denialist wave during the pandemic and after, Octavian Jurma answered:
“There are people who are hired specifically so that when there is a crisis, they take a step forward, not a step back. Yes, it’s ok for the population to be afraid, it’s ok for there to be a wave of resistance – the anti-vaccination phenomenon has existed historically since the first vaccine, there has always been a group of people scared of the vaccine, because in general we are scared of why we don’t understand, who resisted, that didn’t stop the authorities of the time from having a campaign, to convince people. (…) Starting from a common denominator that we have the flu vaccine, from here we can adopt a set of rules. Masks can be made mandatory in hospitals during this period, I think no one would protest such a thing, maybe some more radical members. But that can be a measure easily understood by 99% of the population. And from here you can go to some broader recommendations”.
“If the storm catches us unprepared, who is responsible?”
The doctor says that even around babies, those visiting at home should wear a mask during this period. “Which is worse: to be paraoinous or to wake up with the little one between life and death? Because up to 2 years, the child’s immune system is in formation and depends exclusively on the parents. If he’s breastfed, that’s fine.”
In order to take measures, parents first need to be informed, emphasizes Octavian Jurma.
“We are very close to seeing values close to the historical peak of flu values in Romania in a week or two. And that requires more careful communication from the health authorities. Every time I show up with this information I am told: <
How vaccination helps
The scientist believes that more communication is also needed regarding the vaccine.
“From my point of view, the saddest aspect of this wave is that the number of vaccinations has decreased a lot. So it reached 20,000 vaccinations per week. Those who know themselves to be vulnerable get vaccinated quickly at the beginning of the flu season, but other people who do not get vaccinated unless they are well informed. A serious campaign could increase the vaccination rate in anticipation of this wave.”thinks Octavian Jurma.
Regarding the variant of flu that circulates heavily in the UK in particular, the doctor says: “The current vaccine contains its ancestor, from which the K subclade originates, so the influenza vaccine provides significant protection.”
Vaccination acts as a safety belt, the doctor says, and reduces the impact: ,,Even 30-50% protection is better than zero if you come across the flu virus. That even means you might not get the disease at all, or if you do, get a much milder form.”
The flu is not just a cold, the doctor emphasizes, and we see this in hospitals at the height of the season.
The most vulnerable to influenza and its complications are children under 2 years old and adults over 65 years old, those who suffer from chronic diseases or people who have problems with immunity or are recovering from other ailments.
