The latest INSCOP survey shows that Marcel Ciolacu, PSD leader, is in first place in voting intentions for the first round of the 2024 presidential elections, with 25.3%, followed by George Simion (AUR) with 19.1%.
Lasconi, Simion, Ciolacu, Ciucă, Hunor, Geoana, Birchall, Păcuraru. Photo: Inquam, Profimedia
According to a survey carried out by INSCOP Research commissioned by the daily newspaper Libertatea, the intention to vote for the first round of the presidential elections in 2024 is dominated by PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu, who is in first place in Romanians’ preferences. After him, George Simion, the leader of AUR, is in second place, according to the data of the sociological research carried out between November 7 and 12, 2024.
Estimation of voter turnout
In terms of estimated turnout, the survey shows a high level of engagement on the part of citizens. Almost 73% of respondents said they were sure they would go to the polls on November 24, 2024, indicating a high turnout intention. According to the data, the estimated turnout in the first round of the presidential elections is 56.4%, correlating the voting options with those who declare themselves certain that they will vote.
Voting intention in the first round
The results of the INSCOP survey show that, in the first round of the presidential elections, Marcel Ciolacu would get 25.3% of the votes, followed by George Simion with 19.1%. Elena Lasconi (USR) is in third place with 14.3%, and Mircea Geoană, independent, is in fourth place with 13.3%. Nicolae Ciucă, the PNL leader, would get 9.1% of the voting intentions.
Also, the independent candidate Călin Georgescu is in sixth place with 5.4% of the votes, followed by Cristian Diaconescu (4.6%) and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) with 4.1%. Lesser known candidates, such as Cristian Terheș (PNCR), Ludovic Orban (PMP and FD), Ana Birchall and Alexandra Păcuraru, obtain lower percentages, below 1%.
Scenarios for round II
Regarding the possible confrontations in the second round of the elections, the INSCOP survey explored several hypothetical scenarios. In a confrontation between Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion, the current prime minister would get 55.5% of the votes, while the AUR leader would be supported by 44.5% of respondents. In another scenario, in which he would compete with Elena Lasconi, Ciolacu would register 52.2%, and Lasconi would get 47.8%.
Also, in a dispute between Ciolacu and Mircea Geoană, the answers are extremely close, with 51.9% of Romanians pointing to Geoană, while 48.1% support Ciolacu. In the case of a confrontation between Ciucă and Ciolacu, the PSD leader would win with 62.2% of the votes, while Nicolae Ciucă would get only 37.8%.
When looking at other possible second round combinations like George Simion vs. Elena Lasconi or Mircea Geoană vs. George Simion, the poll shows fairly small differences between the two candidates, indicating a close contest.
Fragmentation of the electorate
One of the important elements of this survey is the fragmentation of the Romanian electorate. According to the analysis carried out by INSCOP Research, there are three large electoral basins, each with a different behavior:
1. **Social-democratic pool**: Almost 30% of voters support candidate Marcel Ciolacu, with marginal competition from Mircea Geoană.
2. **The populist-radical pool**: This represents approximately 30% of the electorate, with George Simion being the dominant candidate, and Călin Georgescu and Cristian Terheș having less support.
3. **Center-Right Basin**: This category is fragmented and includes several candidates, such as Elena Lasconi, Mircea Geoană, Nicolae Ciucă and Cristian Diaconescu, but without a clear dominant candidate.
Also, the Hungarian electorate is expected to play an important role in these elections, given the percentages obtained by Kelemen Hunor.
