The government rock, scheduled in April 2027, gives a term “expiration” to the current cabinet, a moment that could present a danger of breaking the coalition. The new formula, with four games that have different ideologies, could break at any time, say analysts.
The head of the government would be changed in 2027 Photos Photos / Octav Ganea
“The signatory political formations agree on the application of the rotation regarding the position of prime minister. For the period June 2025-April 2027 the candidate for the position of prime minister, supported by the coalition, will be appointed by the PNL. For the period April 2027-December 2028 the candidate for the position of prime minister, supported by the PSD, will be supported by the PSD PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR-minorities”, Provides for the coalition agreement.
The moment will involve a rethinking of the government office, not excluding the exit of one of the parties at that time, as happened at the 2023 Rocade, when UDMR remained on the outside and went into opposition.
Last but not least, the rock could generate new tensions, especially in the context in which Ilie Bolojan requested before signing the agreement not to have a term of “expiration” the cabinet he was going to take over.
“It is a pretty fragile agreement” – George Jiglău, political scientist
“It is a coalition that is prone to being unstable. There are four different parties. Four parties that over time, in one form or another, have also collaborated, but have been in conflict. At least PSD and USR have never been together in a coalition. That, of course, it breaks faster, but I think this coalition is prone to being unstable and hitting tense moments, in principle anytime, especially as two years should be taken harsh measures, which will upset various guilds (…) The stresses or even conflicts may occur and faster than two years “Politicologist George Jiglău believes.
The basis of the recession of the current coalition, the “special context” of Romania
George Jiglău points out that, if the current formula resists to the government rock, there is a chance that the Executive will continue with the same coalition until the following elections: “If this coalition goes for two years with Bolojan Prime Minister and does not break, I think they are rather good premises to stand and beyond the two years. That is, from that moment, until 2008. So if it goes two years with Bolojan and does not break until then, I think there are good chances to endure to the end. “.
“It is clear that the current composition of the majority does not get in peace, so to speak. When you put in the same place and PSD, and PNL, it is difficult to think about a long -term functional majority. But we must not forget the context in which we are and why this coalition was formed. This coalition was formed after 2025. The context is a special one and it is possible that this is precisely this to be the factor that holds the coalition together, at least until the time of rotative ”, Political consultant Adrian Zăbavă is the opinion.
Who could break the coalition
As for a possible breaking of the coalition, the lowest chances of detaching are at USR, “If we are to look at USR as a presidential party today ”explains Analyst Adrian Zăbavă:
“The USR would reach this position, break the coalition or get out of the coalition, only if Nicușor Dan would have an interest in that sense. But if Nicușor Dan is to have a stable coalition, then I think the USR has the lowest chances of reaching that situation.
On the other hand, the National Liberal Party gives the prime minister. So, theoretically, until the time of rotary, it is very difficult to believe that the National Liberal Party would like to break the coalition. However, it is possible that Ilie Bolojan, as we know him or as I knew him from Oradea, will be extremely dissatisfied with certain things, the way the coalition works and this to resign, to an exit of the PNL from the government, only because he could not do what he has done.
I think the biggest chances could be from the social-democratic party, if we think about a political, electoral calculation, so. If the Social-Democratic Party, not having the prime minister, sees that the results of the government are not extraordinary, will probably try to distance itself from the image of this government, especially not leading it with the prime minister. ”
