Superbacteria could cause millions of deaths worldwide and could affect the global economy up to $ 2,000 billion by 2050, according to recent economic models.
Superbacteria could kill millions of people annually photo shutterstock
A study funded by the British government shows that, in the absence of a coordinated action, the increase in antimicrobial (AMR) resistance could lead to annual $ 1,700 billion in the next 25 years, The Guardian reports.
The research, conducted by the think tank Center for Global Development, indicates that US economies, United Kingdom and European Union will be among the most severely affected, generating criticism that recent drastic discounts are counterproductive.
On Thursday, the British government announced that it will eliminate financing for the Fleming Fund, which fights AMR in low and medium -income countries, as part of the larger discounts of external aid. The Trump administration has confirmed $ 9 billion cuts from the budget for external aid, while several European countries have also reduced the expenses for international assistance.
Anthony McDonnell, the main author of the study and researcher in public policies at Center for Global Development, said:
“When I carried out the research on the economic impact of the antimicrobial resistance, I assumed that the resistance rates will follow the historical tendencies.
However, the sudden reductions of the official development assistance from the US-which has reduced its budget for aid by about 80%-, of the United Kingdom-which announced the decrease from 0.5% to 0.3% of the gross national income-and of France, Germany and other states, can cause an accelerated increase in resistance, according to the most pessimistic scenario.
This would lead to millions of additional deaths globally, including in G7 nations. Investments in treatments for bacterial infections will save lives and will generate economic benefits of billions in the long term. ”
The study calculated the economic and sanitary burden of antibiotic resistance for 122 countries and estimated that, in the most pessimistic scenario, by 2050, annual GDP losses could reach nearly $ 722 billion, 295.7 billion in the US, 187 billion in the EU, 65.7 billion in Japan and 58.6 United.
According to the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME), the deaths caused by AMR are expected to increase by 60% by 2050, with 1.34 million deaths in the US and 184,000 in the United Kingdom due to antibiotic -resistant bacteria. The number of people who will be seriously ill because of these bacteria is also estimated to grow significantly.
Superbacteria lead to multiple hospitals, longer and more intense hospitals, more expensive line treatments and more complex care. Resistant infections are, on average, twice as expensive to treat as those responding to antibiotics.
The study estimates that global health expenses generated by AMR could increase by nearly $ 176 billion. In the United Kingdom, they could increase from 900 million to $ 3.7 billion, and in the US from 15.5 billion to almost 57 billion.
At the same time, the higher rate of resistant infections could reduce the labor force of the United Kingdom, the EU and the US by 0.8%, 0.6%and 0.4%respectively.
But if states invest more in combating superbacteries – by increasing access to new antibiotics and quality treatments – the US economy could increase by $ 156.2 billion annually, and that of the United Kingdom by 12 billion (approximately 9.3 billion pounds) by 2050.
