The municipal elections taking place on Sunday in France could have wider consequences, concerns at the European level being expressed since last year.
The vote, scheduled for March 15 and 22, could reshape French politics and influence the stability of the European Union, Politico writes, in the context of waiting for next year’s presidential elections in this country.
Municipal contests rarely predict the results of a presidential election, but given the advantage of the far-right National Assembly (RN) party in the polls, the local vote takes on unusual significance, testing the ability of the “Republican Front” against the far-right.
A test at the polls
Stakes for games
Foreign policy analyst Radu Magdin points out that the municipal elections in France will be seen, to a large extent, as a political test for next year’s presidential elections.
“The stake is not only the control of local administrations, but the ability of the main parties to strengthen their position before a decisive national competition. For the National Assembly (RN), the election is an opportunity to demonstrate that it can turn good results in the polls and in the European elections into local administrative power. In particular, observers will look at how many municipalities the RN or candidates close to it could win, as expanding the local base would strengthen the party’s credibility before the presidential says this one.
Presidential launch pad
At the same time, these elections are also a test, both for potential presidential candidates and for the political architecture of the French center, setting the tone for Emmanuel Macron’s last year in office.
“Figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Édouard Philippe (candidate in Le Havre) will be evaluated indirectly or directly through their performance or the political camps they represent. Also, the poll will show whether the centrist/traditional parties can still build alliances capable of limiting the advance of the RN. The interest will not be focused only on Paris, but especially on cities like Nice or Marseille, where electoral races can bring to the fore candidates of the RN or close to it. In this sense, the municipal elections will set the tone for the last year of Emmanuel Macron’s mandate and will indicate who has the best chances of profile in view of 2027”.
Potential consequences
If the “Republican Front” shows signs of weakness, the consequences will be important, indicates Radu Magdin. “Such a failure would suggest that the mechanism that operated in 2017 and 2022 to stop National Assembly it no longer has the same effectiveness, either because of political fragmentation or because of voter fatigue with tactical alliances. In this scenario, the RN could win not only more cities, but also increased legitimacy as a political force capable of governing at the local level.
More broadly, the weakening of the Republican Front would change the calculus for future presidential races. If alliances between centrist parties and traditional center-left or center-right parties fail to mobilize in the second round, the 2027 contest could become much more open. At the same time, it would force the mainstream parties to rethink their strategies and leaders in an attempt to build credible alternatives to the RN”.
Echo at the European level
The presidential vote in France, which will take place in 2027, is causing concern at the European level. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated since last year that he “looks with some concern at France”, expressing that the perception of the role of the European Union will be a key factor.
President Emmanuel Macron, who is ending his second term, will not be able to stand for election in 2027. At the same time, France is facing a continued rise of the far-right National Assembly party, despite the fact that its leader Marine Le Pen can no longer run.
