Beyond the conspiracy theories that still haunt the Internet, mankind’s return to the Moon via the Artemis II mission marks a radical paradigm shift. Astronomer Adrian Șonka explains, in an interview for “Adevărul”, why the current stake is no longer ideological, as during the Cold War, but an extremely pragmatic one: survival far from Earth and strategic control of the orbit, where the “silent war” of secret satellites and anti-satellite weapons has already begun.
From alienation conspiracy theories to invisible confrontations in orbit, the stakes are more complex than ever. NASA’s Artemis II mission has brought the battle between states in outer space back into the public domain.
“Adevărul” spoke with the astronomer Adrian Șonka from the “Admiral Vasile Urseanu” Astronomical Observatory about the competition between the great powers, the allocated budgets but also the responsibilities of the states that manage missions for the purpose of defense or data collection. He says that the current motivation of states differs fundamentally from that of the past, the goal being a pragmatic one.
“This return to the moon no longer has the background of the Cold War, it is no longer an ideological competition. It may be a competition with China, but the Chinese are a bit behind and I don’t think they will send people to the moon very soon. People want to return to the moon, they have another reason now, they want to show that they can live in outer space away from the Earth. We want to learn to live there, not to prove that we are the best, but to live away from Earth There will be moon landings at the south pole of the moon, where no humans have ever gone before the temperatures are neither high nor low, and there are also sources of frozen water discovered from orbit. They won’t be able to go down into the craters, but they can study up close.”
Why didn’t he return to the moon
Apollo 11 was the first mission in which a man walked on the moon. Conspiracy theories speculate that this objective has not been returned to, but Adrian Sonka says that both the costs and benefits of a state investing in such a mission make the investment problematic. The ambitions of the states have refined and there are 33,421 artificial satellites of which 15,000 are active.
“First of all, it cost a lot to send people to the moon, and the scientific goals, like bringing back rocks for study, were already accomplished from the first missions. And then they said it was too much money to spend on something that had already been accomplished.
Congress was deciding the funding and they started canceling missions and some of the money went to other projects like the space shuttle and the space stations, which worked very well for a long time.”
The “hot war” in space
The current competition is concentrated around the Earth in the context where large-scale missions do not bring direct benefits to the states that venture into such an investment. Adrian Sonka says that the USA, China and Russia are the main actors in space exploration and the European Union, although far behind in terms of investment, is in fourth position.
“The war is in low orbit, here around the Earth, where satellites are being launched, including secret cargo satellites that you don’t know what they’re doing. All nations are launching satellites, but you don’t know what they’re for. They’re testing anti-satellite weapons, missiles launched specifically into orbit to destroy satellites. China, Russia and the US have tested such things and don’t really play by the rules anymore.
There are rules not to destroy satellites in orbit, but all the major countries have done it and created fragments. You’re basically ruining the orbit and creating danger for everyone. When there’s something from China there’s a big fuss that it’s going to fall to Earth and there’s news all over the place. But at the same time, American things also fall, and nothing appears anymore.”
The number of objects around the Earth is impressive and the risks are magnified by deliberate actions. Space exploration remains a mix of ambition and strategic interest, the astronomer says.
“The closer you are to Earth, you’re collecting data and surveillance, which can also have military uses. The further you go, it’s more about image and showing that you can do great things.” Humanity is evolving and there is nothing we can do about it. Where humanity goes, we go, even if some would like us to go back in time.”
What are the actions most targeted by states?
Most budgets for space exploration are approved by governments, even if it is private firms that need to undertake a mission, executive approval is essential. So, most investments are made for data collection and defense purposes.
“You don’t want to destroy a satellite that studies the weather, you want to destroy a satellite that has something on board, an aerial bomb or something for surveillance. They all collect data, but something more dangerous is this hot war in orbit, around the earth, where a lot of missions are launched. If you look at a site that gives the next missions that will be launched into space, almost every day we have launches. The moon is just like that: Let’s do this too.”
Is it after the circumnavigation of the moon and the selenization?
Before the mission of July 1969, the environment of the natural satellite of the earth was realized. Although it is an exploration for scientific purposes only, the next stage would include selenization. Conspiracy theories also include the option in which outer space would be contested at a representative level, similar to the protocol for embassies.
“Theoretically, yes. In itself, Artemis III will not have satellites. The next one, maybe next year, but please, the dates are still changing. But I think the next one, Artemis 4, will be satellited.
There will be a moon landing at the south pole of the Moon, where no humans have ever gone before. From there, please, if you stay there, the temperatures are neither high nor low, and it is simply more comfortable for the astronaut. And especially since they are also near some sources of frozen water, as has been discovered from orbit. There would be frozen water in certain craters. They won’t be able to go down into the craters, probably, but at least they’re there and they can study closer.
But of course, we will go back to the moon. And the Chinese have plans to send people to the moon, but as far as I know, in 2030, at least around then.”
Who is investing the most now? China, Russia, America?
“If we look at it like this, in proximity, I don’t know who invests the most. They all launch a lot of satellites, launches are constantly being made. The most important countries are the USA, Russia and China. These are the main three. The Europeans are less, so to speak, maybe in fourth place, and the rest don’t even matter much.
So these are the three great powers. If we talk about Europe, here we have the European Space Agency, Europe being made up of several countries and the funding being common, probably through the European Commission. I don’t know exactly who approves the funds there, but less is released than in the other three big powers.
However, we also have new GPS-type satellites, we have our constellation, Galileo, for which satellites are still being launched.”
But the battle is not as transparent as it might seem, states do not cooperate in sharing information about the placement and purpose of the satellites that are launched daily.
“The problem is that there are a lot of classified launches, so to speak. They’re satellites that you see in the sky, but you don’t know what they’re doing, and nobody knows exactly, because they’re no longer required to say what they’re for. Sometimes there are launches, especially from China, that you find out about within minutes after they took place. It has already happened, so there are also such situations. There are less transparent countries, China, maybe Russia, and you don’t see the same openness as before.”says Adrian Sonka.
Asteroid scenario
Considering the amount of daily data collection the apocalyptic scenario of an asteroid hitting the earth should only be fictional. The specialist says that at the level of communication, international relations leave much to be desired, even in extreme cases.
“We don’t know if, if an asteroid comes to Earth, countries will cooperate with each other, because it hasn’t happened before. It depends a lot on where it falls and what the interests are. If it’s something global, like it was with the dinosaurs, they’ll probably cooperate, but if it’s something smaller, we don’t know. All countries have enemies and reactions can be different.”
Space exploration remains a mixture of ambition and strategic interest:
“The closer you are to Earth, you’re collecting data and surveillance, which can also have military uses. The further you go, it’s more about image and showing that you can do great things.”concludes the astronomer.
