In a year where war, energy crises and instability in air transport overlap with fear, tourism no longer operates according to known rules. Tourists are postponing decisions, agencies are working in crisis mode, and vacations are becoming increasingly difficult to plan. “The buying habit has changed. If before everyone bought early booking holidays, in order to get a reservation – because the market was stable and predictable -, today people go more towards last minutes”, says ANAT vice-president Adrian Voican. He is of the opinion, however, that the tourism industry is resilient, it has gone through crises before, and people do not easily give up the joy of vacations.
The fuel crisis may destabilize the summer season
Amid geopolitical tensions, one of the biggest risks to European tourism remains related to the supply of jet fuel. The aviation industry faces the prospect of shortages in the coming weeks if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues.
“The situation could become systemic in the next three to four weeks, which could lead to severe reductions in flights in Europe starting as early as May and June”, said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy (an independent energy analysis and consultancy company), quoted by CNBC News.
The same term is used by ACI Europe, the organization that represents the airports of the European Union. And the heads of the largest European airlines – Ryanair and Lufthansa – warned since the beginning of April that there are risks of 20% cancellation of flights in the middle of the summer season.
Airlines are now looking for alternative supply routes as the price of jet fuel has risen more than 100% in a single month, according to data from the International Air Transport Association.
In this context, the question “What happens with the summer holidays?” naturally arises.
Adrian Voican, vice-president of the National Association of Romanian Travel Agencies (ANAT) chooses to remain optimistic:
Tourism, even if it encounters difficulties, is very flexible and recovers very quickly. It is very resilient. The need to travel doesn’t go away, the need to vacation doesn’t go away. As we have seen, if the planes were no longer able to stop for transit in the Gulf area en route to destinations in the Indian Ocean and the Far East, either direct flights from Europe or stopovers in Istanbul appeared; tourists and agencies reorient themselves, find alternatives to the challenges that arise. It’s not easy, it’s very nerve-wracking, emotional – both for the agents and for the tourists – but with kindness and patience these challenges are overcome.
The end of “early booking”? Romanian tourists choose to wait
However, important changes are taking place. The tourism market operated, until recently, on predictability. Type discounts early booking bookings in travel agencies dominated, and Romanians planned their vacations months in advance. Today, this model is beginning to crack. Demand becomes unpredictable and operators can no longer easily estimate the season. Adrian Voican explains:
We don’t know yet if the number of reservations is decreasing, because the buying habit has changed. If before everyone bought for early booking discounts, today people go more towards last minutes. Precisely because there is uncertainty and it is not so predictable what will happen, wait until the last moment. Let’s see what happens. They’re not so excited about early bird discounts anymore, but they really enjoy last minute discounts if they come around. They see that everything is ok in the destination they want to go to – whether it’s by plane, whether it’s by bus or their own car -, they see what’s available at that moment and make their choice.
Cancellation insurance, a handy tool
However, any type of reservation comes with risks, if we look at the current situation. In the case of last minute packages, the prices of plane tickets could be more expensive. And in the case of early vacations, there is the risk of flight cancellations.
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,,You have to choose where you feel comfortable. Likewise, early booking accommodations are non-refundable: you pay now, you have a price reduction, but you assume the risk. Or you can opt for a reservation with a more flexible cancellation. Of course the price is a bit higher. It depends a lot on the security you have. If you fear more, you avoid more; if you are less afraid, you take the decision to buy with more confidence”says Adrian Voican.
The vice-president of ANAT also recommends cancellation type insurances, which he categorizes as o “wise choice”.
Vacations in Europe, the first option for Romanians
Another trend observed is that far-flung destinations are losing ground, with Europe becoming the dominant choice. The data from the Easter period confirm this direction.
Probably over 80% of those who left Romania went to Europe and very few chose South America or the Far East.
In addition, there is increasing interest in car-accessible holidays or city breaks in relatively safe and logistically manageable destinations.
The Scandinavian countries, the northern countries and the UK area are starting to get interesting. (…) I have seen a lot of bookings and in Germany (at castles), in France, in Italy, in Spain there is quite a lot going on. And Poland and the Czech Republic have grown a lot lately. I’m in Schengen and we can go by car.
In terms of beach destinations, Greece remains the preferred option, while Bulgaria is losing ground due to rising taxes, says ANAT vice-president.
The advantage travel agencies could have
In the context in which vacations become a lottery this summer, travel agencies could also gain. With more tourists turning to such options instead of self-organized vacations.
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“I think people are still going on vacation. Some choose, as I said, ahead of time, they also insure against possible cancellations using insurance companies; others wait until the last minute and get their bearings – it might be more expensive or find deals and be cheaper, they might find exactly where they want or pick from what’s left (if the really good seats are already booked). It’s everyone’s decision, and the agencies are there to show them options. Because a travel agency doesn’t necessarily want to take you to hotel x in town y. A travel agency shows you as wide a palette as possible: in the country, abroad, by plane, by car, by coach. You have a choice. And someone who is very experienced in such situations gives you confidence. And you’re probably no longer hunting for risky bargains online, not really knowing who you’re dealing with. And you start to appreciate the professionalism of the travel agents, who went to college for this job“, Adrian Voican thinks.
Tourism is not the first major challenge, says the vice-president of ANAT, but it relies on the ability to adapt.
Challenges arise: we also had volcanic ash clouds, we also had a pandemic, I don’t even want to think how many undesirable events there were in the last 30 years in the world. (…) Travel agencies cannot intervene on the international situation, but they can help their clients overcome challenges. I know travel agents who, this Easter, stayed in the agency and on the reservation systems in order to manage to bring home tourists from distant countries, who were also hit by strikes. Lufthansa did not fly to Germany. So a country in peaceful conditions, in the middle of Europe, but look, there are strikes.
