A solar storm on the scale of the one in 1859, known as the Carrington Event, could destroy all satellites in Earth’s orbit, according to simulations carried out by the European Space Agency (ESA). Experts warn that it is not a matter of if such a phenomenon will occur, but when.
Solar storm. PHOTO: Shutterstock
According to tests at the European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt, Germany, a solar flare of magnitude X45 would set off a huge wave of radiation, followed by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that would hit the planet at more than 7 million kilometers per hour. Such a storm could unleash unprecedented technological chaos, destroying satellite communications, GPS systems and power grids, Live Science reports.
“The massive flux of energy emitted by the Sun could damage all satellites in orbit. In a scenario of the magnitude of the Carrington Event, no satellite would be safe,” said Jorge Amaya, ESA’s Space Phenomena Modeling Coordinator.
ESA’s simulation highlighted three major threats: the first wave of radiation that could disable satellites far from Earth’s magnetic field, a second wave that would disrupt navigation systems and communications, and finally the CME, which would increase the aerodynamic drag of satellites by up to 400 percent, causing them to crash toward Earth.
A lesser-intensity episode already occurred in May 2024, when a strong geomagnetic storm disrupted GPS and affected US agriculture, causing losses estimated at $500 million.
A Carrington-level storm, however, could cause massive damage. A 2013 study estimated losses of up to $2.6 trillion in North America alone, while the global effects would be “beyond our comprehension,” according to the Planetary Society.
“It’s not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’ it will happen”, warned Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, ESA expert in space operations. Specialists estimate that a solar storm of this type occurs, on average, once every 500 years, which means a 12% probability that such an event will occur this century.
As the number of satellites could increase tenfold by 2050, a future “solar megastorm” could have catastrophic consequences for civilization.
