As the candidacies for the City Hall of the Capital are determined, the option of a possible strong candidacy from the Opposition can be seen. However, such an outcome depends on certain factors, according to the analysts consulted by “Adevărul”.
Daniel Băluță, Ciprian Ciucu, Cătălin Drula and Anca Alexandrescu PHOTO Mediafax / Collage
The latest polls place four candidates with good chances in the race for the Capital City Hall: the three coalition candidates, Daniel Băluță (PSD), Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) and Cătălin Drălă (USR), and Anca Alexandrescu (independent), the moderator of the Realitatea Plus television station, considered close to the former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu. She announced that “99%” will enter the race for the Capital City Hall in the December 7 elections.
The road to such candidacy is already paved. In the 2016 elections, Gabriela Firea, also a former television moderator, won the election with over 40% of the votes, as a candidate of the PSD-UNPR alliance.
Repetition from polls
The most recent survey, published by Avangarde (polling house led by sociologist Marius Pieleanu), places Daniel Băluță (PSD) in first place, with 25%, followed by Ciprian Cicu (PNL), rated with 23%, Cătălin Drula (USR), with 18% and Anca Alexandrescu (independent), who has 16%.
Another CURS poll (coordinated entirely by former journalist Iosif Buble, owner of Online Research SRL), published on October 19, also placed Daniel Băluță (PSD) in first place, with the same percentage of 25%. Cătălin Drula (USR) and Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) were tied for second place, each with 18%, followed by Anca Alexandrescu (independent), with 10%.
On August 31, Avangarde also published a study in which Daniel Băluță led in voting intention, but alongside Ciprian Ciucu, both being rated with 25%. Cătălin Drula was rated with 20%, and Anca Alexandrescu had 18% in the intention to vote for Capital.
What the specialists say
As an independent candidate, Anca Alexandrescu “can benefit from a favorable turnout if we have a low voter turnout determined by the electorate’s disappointment with the political inability to respond to the population’s frustrations (the inability to reduce privileges, the waste of public money, etc.) and if she will be the only relevant candidate to represent the electorate of the radical opposition (that is, elections without an AUR candidate and without other known figures or surprises like Makaveli, who break votes from this segment)”emphasizes the director of Inscop, the sociologist Remus Ștefureac.
“If there will be a very tough war between the big parties, between the big candidates, those who represent and the parties that form a governing coalition, it is possible that, out of nervousness, the citizens will go vote for Anca Alexandrescu, even if she does not declare this today, precisely to give a slap to the big parties. But he must also manage to convince a part of the undecided electorate that he is a different candidate from that of the political parties. It’s quite a complex situation. It depends a lot on how he manages to communicate all these things”“, sociologist Vladimir Ionaș also explains for “Adevărul”.
Chances are the only candidate
“I think that, as the fight for the Capital City Hall is shaping up, we will have a fairly tight battle, with a winner who will have a fairly small percentage,” predicts the political consultant Adrian Zăbava. Consequently, any of the 4 candidates ranked first in the polls has their chance. “What we can say today is that the division, the fragmentation of the vote by the existence of three candidates from the PSD-PNL-USR side favors a candidate from the sovereign zone”points out Adrian Zăbău, especially in the context in which several candidacies are foreshadowed that will even more the electorate of President Nicușor Dan, whom Cătălin Drula (USR) hopes to absorb.
At the same time, a sovereignist candidate is favored in the competition for Bucharest due to the current social and political context. “A society more and more frustrated, more nervous, more, let’s say, at a peak moment in this social frustration, despite the fact that we had elections recently, both in 2024 and in 2025, elections that should have represented an outlet for society, but it didn’t happen and this social frustration is at its highest.
This, even in an atypical competition such as the partial elections for Bucharest, for the Capital City Hall, can give rise to a surprise and can favor a candidate against the status quo. And in the end, this candidacy of a sovereignist candidate like Anca Alexandrescu is the one challenging the status quo. Because both Daniel Băluță, as well as Ciprian Ciucu and Cătălin Drula, in one way or another represent the status quo. And this dissatisfaction, this feeling can be fruitful by a different candidacy”.
However, says the consultant Adrian Zăbava, “if there will be more candidates hunting for that electorate, then the chances of a sovereignist to reach the head of the Capital City Hall will decrease. (…) If all the sovereignist forces lined up behind a single candidate, regardless of the name. But let’s say that notoriety is important here. We have the example of Mihai Enache, last time the AUR candidate, who was a candidate below the party’s potential. So, if we have a candidate with some notoriety and some potential behind whom the sovereignist forces line up, then, yes, it is clear that that candidate has a real chance of winning this competition”.
Splitting the vote
The independent candidacy of Anca Alexandrescu has only one problem. It is about the competition that it can have even from among the sovereignist camp. In the same segment of the electorate, Makaveli (Virgil Alexandru Zidaru), influencer, also previously associated with Călin Georgescu, but also with Diana Șoșoacă, head of SOS Romania, could also run.
AUR, the main opposition party in Parliament, is expected to nominate a candidate of its own. But calculations are still being made in the party led by George Simion. The leader of the AUR senators, Petrișor Peiu, states that, under the conditions in which Anca Alexandrescu “occupy a very close aisle” by that of AUR, a decisive announcement by it would be an element that can also clarify the party’s course of action. “In principle, we support the idea that the entire opposition should have a single candidate who can benefit from the cumulation of votes. This does not mean that we can accept any condition set by I-know-what group that claims to be the opposition“, explains Petrișor Peiu.
Another candidate who could still steal votes in this segment is Liviu Negoiță (PUSL), who in the past led the mayor’s office of Sector 3.
