The polls conducted earlier this year still show a Călin Georgescu with an electorate outlet, and the pro-Western forces are looking for a tailor-made counter-candidate. The experts questioned by the “truth” explained what strengths they should have to overcome Georgescu.
Calin Georgescu at the Bucharest Court of Appeal. Photo inquam Photos / Octav Ganea
Crin Antonescu was validated, on Sunday, February 2, by the PSD Congress as a candidate for the presidential elections in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from the coalition in government. In polls, the former Liberal leader looks better than all his potential candidates, but not to Călin Georgescu.
Prior to the announcement of the Social Democrats, Nicușor Dan and Elena Lasconi announced that they will be beaten for the chair in Cotroceni, and in the next period it is expected that the list will be completed by other names. Therefore, there is a real inflation of candidates with pro-Western views, which gives rise to several questions.
The first of these is which of them could defeat Călin Georgescu, starting from the presumption that he will run in May. The second question, closely related to the first, is if there is no risk of a “cannibalization”, in the sense that the votes of the pro-Western electorate will be crushed and allow Georgescu again, at least in the first round of presidentials. . At the same time, it would be to be considered and to what extent George Simion will now reconcile with the idea that he is only the second sovereign leader or will want more, which could cause him to enter a battle without Houses with Călin Georgescu, especially since the two are not in the best relationships. And last but not least, if the MEP Diana Şoșoaca will be able to apply, which would further fragment the votes of the sovereign camp, at least in the first round.
The candidate who comes out of the equation
“Adevărul” addressed these topics with two well -known experts, Marius Ghincea, respectively Radu Delotote. Marius Ghincea is a researcher in social sciences and expert in public policies and security. The researcher at the titled Swiss University Eth Zurich, Ghincea is affiliated with the European University Institute in Florence and is a co-founder of the Quartet Institute, a successful think tank.
“It is difficult to say who could be successful against Călin Georgescu. Here it is important to see the sociological studies that the various polling companies will carry out in the next period. I would say, however, that Nicușor Dan is profiled as a serious candidate, given his credibility as an antisystem actor over the years, as a credible competitor. On the other hand, Antonescu enjoys the support of the electoral machines of the three parties, but starts from a rather small base and, as we have seen in last year’s elections, the parties can no longer control their voters through the machines. voting. However, there is a lot of uncertainty and distrust of the results of future elections, only time will clarify us ”says Ghincea.
On the other hand, if Nicușor Dan and Crin Antonescu would have real chances of winning the elections, the weakest candidate would be Elena Lasconi, who would have absolutely no chance in front of Georgescu, believes Ghincea.
“Elena Lasconi does not think she has a chance because, on the one hand, she has lost her credibility through various rhetorical and political movements after the annulment of the elections and, on the other hand, most of the voters of Elena Lasconi have already been taken by Nicușor Dan, that seems to be a much more politically credible candidate“, The expert believes.
The advantages of Nicușor Dan
Nicușor Dan would have a certain advantage in front of Crin Antonescu.
“He points to the eyes of the educated voters in the big cities, but potentially and other voters from the Mic Urban, who are attracted to both his natural charisma and the relatively moderate, but critical discourse,” It is the explanation of Marius Ghincea.
Another possible advantage for Nicușor Dan would belong to the fact that an antisystem candidate as is the general mayor of the capital can speculate the popular dissatisfaction and the hostile attitude of the mainstream parties. “We can speculate, but at this moment it is clear that there is a popular, significant dissatisfaction against traditional parties and traditional policies, but it is not very clear that could be an unexpected alternative to Călin Georgescu ”, he adds.
Calin Georgescu begins to erode
On the other hand, Marius Ghincea is of the opinion that, meanwhile, the confidence in Călin Georgescu has begun to erode, and some of his voters will reorient themselves in the May elections.
“Calin Georgescu, fortunately for us, is slightly eroded because of the stubborn speech that alienates a part of the electorateI, ”adds the expert.
He also talks about the fragmentation on the pro-Western political chess, where it seems to be an inflation of candidates, but also on the other side, in the sovereign camp. Specifically, if Diana Şoșoacă will choose to apply again, and this time she will receive the green wave, it could break about 5% -6% of the votes. Insufficient for the shock to go to round 2, but enough to give some headaches to Călin Georgescu, although it seems unlikely that it does not reach the 2nd round.
“There are indications to show us that Mr. Simion will run, just as there are some clues that show us that Diana Şoșoacă could end up applying. Of course, at this moment it is not clear ”,
Points Ghincea.
However, there is also a general context that is still favorable to Călin Georgescu. The popular dissatisfaction with the incoherent policies of the government only helps the far right.
How he gives his coalition with his left side and helps Georgescu
“We see how the economic and fiscal policies adopted by the Government have produced a great dissatisfaction, which could lead, if not an increase in support for far-right candidates, at least to a demobilization, which has the same effect. We remember that it was promised last year, for example, the growth of pensions, but this year will no longer increase pensions. And the PSD has largely benefited from the electoral support of the pensioners. Either for the PSD, but also for the candidate of the coalition, the biggest problem would be the demobilization of pensioners and dissatisfaction in general. Even worse, some of them could vote with Georgescu. It would be the result of an frustration for non -fulfillment of the electoral promises by PSD and PNL. That would be bad news for Antonescu”, Says Ghincea.
The communication expert Radu Delotote has a doctorate with Magna as praise in the study of the voting mechanism and its influencers and is an expert in electoral communication. He teaches a Leadership and Political Communication at SNSPA and has been involved over time in numerous local, national and international campaigns.
From the beginning, delicate avoids any prognosis regarding the result of the elections.
“I throw no names on one side, nor on the other until we see all the signatures (candidates) files submitted to the AEP. Then we will know exactly who is applying ”, It’s his argument.
“The choices are about emotion”
Regarding the fight for Cotroceni, Radu Delotte is reserved. So far, he says, too few of the possible candidates have managed to build an image that would allow them to hope that they will win the electorate. In his opinion, the confidence in Georgescu stays at the highest levels.
“Opinion polls show us that the Romanians will vote on Călin Georgescu. And even if these polls are a picture of the moment, we see that Georgescu did not erode at the image and trust level, and on the other side, too few candidates have managed to build (or build) an image of candidate for presidential.“He says.
Further, Radu Delotte talks about the qualities necessary for a candidate capable of successfully facing Călin Georgescu.
“The elections in May, as were those of November-December, are about emotion, about feeling, less about the duties or the job description. Who wins votes? Who will win hearts ”adds the expert.
He also touches the subject of the fragmentation from the pro-Western camp, where the inflation of candidates will make them share their votes and obtain, at least in the first round, rather a medical result.
“We already see that the votes are divided and the same will happen in May. But these votes or this cannibalization is measured in determined voters, those who already have a crystallized option. The vast majority of the undecided never appears in measurements. However, here can be dissatisfaction, frustrations, nostalgics, non -representations, those who are not found, those who are waiting for attributes can continue”He says.
What will matter the most
The battle for undecided voters, who at this moment do not have a favorite, will prove extremely important. Whoever will succeed in convincing more undecided, will have an extra argument in the fight for Cotroceni.
“Who gathers them, realistically? The candidate who knows how to create strong emotion, who has the ability to coagulate “under his flag” armed or army of supporters or ambassadors – people to give him the message, themes and ideas. The elections in May will be won and will be about the MLM type communication system – Multi -Level Marketing ”, He explains the delicacies.
At the same time, in his opinion the social-media will not be a decisive factor. “The message that will propagate from and to the acquaintances in various confidence circles. Social media is just a spark, the true stake is next to this communication system. Who will manage to have this functional network, will win the Cotroceni armchair”, Concludes Radu Delotote.
