How the voting intention changed after PSD and PNL gave up on Cîrstoiu ANALYSIS

The entry of PSD and PNL candidates into the election race for the Capital City Hall changed the percentages in the polls. Gabriela Firea and Sebastian Burduja registered increases after breaking from the electorate of Cristian Popescu Piedone and Nicusor Dan.

The current and former mayor are the first candidates listed in polls PHOTO Inquam / Octav Ganea

With the announcement of the candidate of the governing parties PSD and PNL, Cătălin Cîrstoiu, the start of the order of candidates for the Capital City Hall was given by the current mayor Nicușor Dan, with a percentage of 34%. The Sociopol survey, commissioned by the PSD-PNL and published on March 25, thus placed the mayor of sector 5, the PUSL candidate, Cristian Popescu, in second place in terms of voting intention with 30%, while the joint candidate of the governing parties was placed in third place with 26%.

At a distance of almost two months, with other candidates registered, the most recent survey, carried out at the level of the entire electorate in the Capital, places Nicușor Dan still in first place in the intention to vote for the Capital City Hall. The CURS survey, conducted between April 22-30 and published at the beginning of May, rates the current mayor with a score of 29%, followed by Firea with 26% and Piedone with 25%. Sebastian Burduja has 12%.

Firea, favorite in Sector 1

However, a recent survey shows a climb to the 1st place of the PSD candidate at the Capital City Hall, Gabriela Firea, in the voting intention of the electorate in Sector 1.

The survey carried out by Avangarde, which collects data on the choice of citizens in the sector between May 7-11, places Gabriela Firea in first place with a percentage of 30%, while the mayor Nicușor Dan, the candidate of the United Right Alliance, has 29% , below the level given so far in the surveys for the Capital. The PUSL candidate, Cristian Popescu Piedone, drops to only 17%, close to the PNL representative, Sebastian Burduja, who would get 13%.

The distribution of votes between PSD and PUSL candidates

Immediately after PSD and PNL candidates entered the race at the end of April, an Avangarde survey conducted by PSD, between April 24-27, and published on April 28, placed Gabriela Firea in second place. Thus, at that time, Nicușor Dan obtained a second mandate with 31% of the votes, Gabriela Firea with 24%, followed by Cristian Popescu Piedone with 20%. Sebastian Burduja's percentage is 15%.

Another survey, by Inscop, carried out on behalf of News, between April 23-27, placed Gabriela Firea in third place in terms of voting intention. According to the research published on April 30, at that time, Nicusor Dan was in first place with 38.5% of the options, followed by Cristian Popescu Piedone with 27.4% and Gabriela Firea, rated with 21.4%. Also at that time, Sebastian Burduja was rated with a score of 10.1%.

Political dissensions

On the other hand, the AUR candidate, Marian Enache, remained in the last positions in the polls, and his presence in the electoral race caused tensions in the party. More precisely, George Simion would have wanted Cozmin Gușǎ, but the discussions did not progress due to the opposition of other party leaders.

In the context of the changes in the polls, the first vice-president of the PNL, Rareș Bogdan, stated in an intervention on B1 TV that the representative of the liberals registered an increase in the polls, being rated by a percentage towards 20%, while the current mayor of the Capital, Nicușor Dan, it loses percentages.

Cristian Popescu Piedone criticized the polling companies, noting that the data do not reflect reality. “It will be given (fight – no) for Mr. Burduja's intellectuality and youth and ministerial performance with my life experience. I don't think that Burduja is only at 16 percent”, argued Piedone, arguing that in 2020 he won the Sector 5 City Hall, despite the expectations from the public space.

Specialist: Evolutions are somewhat natural

Sociologist Alfred Bulai explained to “Adevărul” that the current order of the polls presents the logical situation of the results of the candidates for the Capital City Hall, drawing attention to the coming weeks, which may bring changes.

“They all have the same order. Nicușor Dan has always been at 30% or something, followed logically by Firea, because he took over the electorate from PSD, and Piedone who will remain around 20%. (…) Probably the real developments will be in a week or two, these are somewhat natural. (…) It's a fairly simple mechanism, Nicușor Dan has his space and the number of voters will be about the same”explained Alfred Bulai.

At the same time, the sociologist pointed out in the case of Gabriela Firea's candidacy that “lose some of the voters no matter what”in the context of Piedone's candidacy, which gathers both his and PSD voters.

Also, to the detriment of Gabriela Firea, the candidacy of the liberal Sebastian Burduja, who “try to have the party score”and “this means that theoretically it is a space for growth that especially affects Firea”given the collaboration of the two governing parties.