What the political calculations look like before the elections for the European Parliament SOURCES

Estimates regarding the mandates that the political families will take after the June 9 election show that the EPP will remain in first place, followed by the socialists, and Renew, also in third place, but in great decline, claim political sources.

The political family of Iohannis, still the favorite to be the first PHOTO Radu Eremia

The European People's Party will preserve its 175 mandates or maybe take even more, according to “Adevărul” information. And the reasons are given by how the main parties of the political family rank in the polls in several countries with a large number of MEPs. Political sources from the popular family claim that in Germany, the two formations of the EPP, CDU and CSU, have as many polls as the Socialists, the party that is part of the Renew family, and the Greens. In Spain, the popular Spaniards are doing much better compared to 2019, even having a small lead. Also, the situation is much better in Poland, where Donald Tusk, recently crowned prime minister, is quite popular and his party is doing very well in the polls.

Estimates show that from approximately 140 mandates, the European Socialists would reach approximately 130 mandates. A bigger loss will be for Renew, the party where the man who has the main say at the European level is Emmanuel Macron, the president of France. According to estimates, from the 105 mandate, in the new configuration Renew would reach around 80 MEPs, given that in Spain the representatives are almost non-existent, and in France the estimates are not too happy regarding the electoral alliance around the party controlled by Macron .

And the Greens would reach around 40 mandates, from 55 currently. Eurosceptics are expected to take around 25% (at least) of the mandates, but it is unclear how they will divide according to the two groups in which we find these parties. But whatever it takes, the Eurosceptics are not entering into any negotiations for the important positions.

Important functions

All important feature discussions will be held after June 9 with the results on the table. According to the “Truth” information, the geographical criterion will also be taken into account, i.e. there should be a balance between west and east, but also between north and south. The head of the Commission is clearly targeted by the EPP, and for the European Council the position will be negotiated mainly between the EPP and the PES. The Renew family is seen as the maximum getting the position of High Representative for Foreign Policy or a vice president with an important portfolio.

The EPP will propose the creation of a commissioner for defense at the Congress in Bucharest. It is not yet clear what the new portfolio will look like, but this person will be responsible for the coordination of procurement in the military area and a coherent strategy at the state level on this topic.

Depending on the negotiations, it may be a new commissioner or perhaps one of the vice-presidents of the Commission will have responsibility for the defense area, but it depends on the discussions after the June 9 election, when every party and every political family is watching the results they get, for that as a result of his weight he will be able to have claims.

In fact, President Klaus Iohannis was also considered for the position of head of defense, given that Ursula von der Leyen stated that she would like the portfolio to belong to a leader from Eastern Europe.