Over time, opinion polls, sociological tools designed to measure the behaviors of a certain group of people, have been transformed into real weapons of manipulation. It is not the research itself that is necessarily the main problem, but the numbers presented publicly and how they are used to shape perceptions and, by implication, electoral behaviour. On the other hand, not all publicly presented poll results are fake, have errors or aim to manipulate public opinion. Many are made to professional standards and give a relatively faithful picture of public opinion at the time of their making.
“At the time of their taking” because the date of taking a survey is as important as possible. Such sociological research captures the options and perceptions of the electorate in the period in which it was conducted, without being able to anticipate subsequent developments. In politics, and especially during election campaigns, the situation can change quickly. New information emerges, debates take place, revelations are made about the candidates, and all of this can influence voters’ choices in a short period of time. For this reason, a survey conducted today may provide a different picture than the one captured two or three weeks from now, without the research methodology necessarily being flawed or the publicly announced data being manipulated.
One of the polling institutes that has built a solid reputation over time is INSCOP Research. In the May 2019 European Parliament elections, INSCOP was among the few polling houses that correctly predicted the victory of the National Liberal Party. The institute was founded by the sociologist Remus Ștefureac, former adviser to George Maior and former director of the Romanian Intelligence Service, but also former ambassador of Romania to the United States. Ștefureac is a partner in several media projects with Sacha Dragic, the founder of Superbet.
However, INSCOP was criticized in the context of the 2024 presidential elections, after several polls published before the election indicated a level of voting intention for Mircea Geoană far above the result obtained in the ballot boxes. For example, in a survey carried out between September 11-16, 2024, the former Deputy Secretary General of NATO was credited with 20.8% of voting intentions and ranked first. Two months later, in the first round of the presidential elections, he obtained only 4.95% of the votes. In this case there are many counter-arguments, especially Geoana’s extremely poor performance during the election campaign. Like other public opinion polling houses, INSCOP failed to capture the fulminant rise of Călin Georgescu. In a survey completed 2 weeks before the election, the pro-Russian candidate was rated with only 5.4% of voting intentions.
The biggest question mark regarding INSCOP’s estimates appeared in the campaign for the Capital City Hall last fall. In the middle of the battle for the “useful vote” between Ciprian Ciucu and Cătălin Drula, a survey conducted between October 17-19 credited the USR candidate with only 11.6% of voting intentions. Although in the last weeks of the campaign there was a migration of votes to Ciucu, Drula finally obtained 13.9%, above the score indicated by the research.
Marius Pieleanu’s surveys that missed the scores of Nicușor Dan and Ciprian Ciucu
Founded in 2005, the Socio-Behavioral Study Group Avangarde SRL is owned by the sociologist Marius Pieleanu. Last year, Avangarde had a turnover of 1.8 million lei and a net profit of approximately 240,000 lei. Over time, Avangarde had contracts with several political formations, especially the Social Democratic Party.
Avangarde also significantly missed the estimate for the local elections in Bucharest in 2024. Only a week before the vote, a survey presented by Marius Pieleanu credited Nicușor Dan with 28.6% of voting intentions, while Gabriela Firea was rated at 26.5%, the difference between the two being only two percentage points. However, the result of the elections was completely different. Nicușor Dan won by a landslide, with 47.94% of the votes, while the PSD candidate obtained only 22.17%, which meant a deviation of almost 20 percentage points from the estimated score for the incumbent mayor.
Avangarde also missed the estimate for the 2026 early elections for the Capital City Hall. Just three days before the vote, a survey carried out together with CURS placed Daniel Băluță in first place, with 27% of voting intentions, followed by Ciprian Ciucu, credited with 24%, and Cătălin Drula, with 21%. However, the result of the election was significantly different. Ciucu won by a landslide, with 36.16% of the votes, followed by Anca Alexandrescu, with 21.94%, Daniel Băluță, with 20.51%, and Cătălin Drula, who obtained 13.9%. The final data contradicted both the ranking indicated by the survey and the estimated scores for the leading candidates.
Vladimir Ionaș heads the CIRA institute
In the leadership of Avangarde is the sociologist Vladimir Ionaș, proposed by the PSD for the position of Minister of Development in the cabinet led by Eugen Tomac, a government that did not reach the investiture vote. Ionaș is the son-in-law of Marius Pieleanu and was an adviser to Sorin Grindeanu during the period when he held the position of prime minister. At the same time, he leads the CIRA institute (The Center for International Research and Analyses). During the campaign for the 2024 presidential elections, a survey published by CIRA placed Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă in the first two places. In the end, neither of the two has access to the second round.
CURS survey: 73% of Bucharest residents believe that Romania is going in the wrong direction. PNL, PSD and AUR, at a distance of one percent
Avangarde’s main partner in conducting opinion polls, the Center for Urban and Regional Sociology (CURS) is owned by Iosif Buble, the owner of the media portal Știripesurse.ro. Buble is married to PSD deputy Diana Tușa.
Another name that recently appeared on the market of opinion polls is ARA Public Opinion, a research institute owned by Laurentiu Andrei Vasile, the former son-in-law of Dan Voiculescu, the founder of the Intact trust. According to financial data, last year the company registered a turnover of approximately two million lei and had eight employees.
In the presidential elections of 2024, the exit poll carried out by ARA indicated Marcel Ciolacu as the winner of the first round, while Călin Georgescu was credited with only 14% of the votes. However, the official result was different. Georgescu ranked first, and Marcel Ciolacu failed to qualify in the second round.
Like other public opinion polling houses, ARA also missed the estimate for the 2026 early elections for the Capital City Hall. Five days before the election, a survey by the institute credited Cătălin Drula with 20% of voting intentions, while Daniel Băluță was placed first, with 26%, and Ciprian Ciucu was rated at 24%.
Pro-Bolojan poll conducted by ARP
Another poll on voting intentions for the parliamentary elections, carried out this week by the Political Rating Agency, generated heated discussions in the political environment, given that the PSD is positioned in third place in voting intentions. According to the research, AUR is in first place in the voters’ options with 36.4%, followed by PNL – 22.4%, PSD – 17.9%, USR – 10.5% and UDMR – 4.9%. An important problem with such surveys concerns the data collection methodology. Respondents are selected through phone interviews conducted using the CATI (Random Digit Dialing) method and online opt-in panels (CAWI), where participants voluntarily sign up to answer the questionnaire. This method is often criticized by specialists because opt-in panels do not represent probability samples and the results can be influenced by the profile of the people who choose to participate.
Rating Pol Consultanță SRL is owned by political analyst Cristian Andrei. After an election year 2024 in which the company reported a turnover of 569,000 lei, in 2025 the declared income collapsed, reaching only 2,500 lei. In the past, Andrei worked for the National Liberal Party.
Sociologist Andrei Roman owns AtlasIntel
Another company from the new wave that collects data mainly online is AtlasIntel, owned by the sociologist Andrei Roman. The institute has attracted attention in the past with several polls in which USR was credited with significantly higher voting intentions than indicated by other polling institutes. AtlasIntel later recalibrated its methodology, and in the run-up to the 2024 local elections, its estimates were among the closest to the final results.
AUR continues to lead in voting intentions for the parliamentary elections. Only a third of Romanians would like to receive it in advance
However, just two days before the first round of the 2024 presidential election, an AtlasIntel poll predicted a final between Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi. In the same research, Călin Georgescu was credited with only 8.1% of voting intentions.
Founded in 2013, the Sociopol institute is owned by Mirel Palada, former spokesman of the Government headed by Victor Ponta. According to financial data, last year Sociopol SRL reported a turnover of almost one million lei and a net profit of approximately 573,000 lei.
Mirel Palada also has two definitive criminal convictions. The first was pronounced after the 2017 incident in which he assaulted USR senator Mihai Goțiu in the B1 TV studio, being sentenced to nine months in prison, with a suspended sentence. Later, he received a new sentence with the suspension of the execution of the sentence for refusing to take biological samples in order to determine the alcohol level.
In last year’s presidential elections, Sociopol constantly overestimated the voting intention for Victor Ponta. In no less than five polls published during the election campaign, the institute credited him with scores between 22% and 23%. Even the exit poll conducted on the day of the vote was not closer to the final result. Sociopol credited Victor Ponta with 19% of the votes, while the former prime minister finally got only 13.04%.
Initially controlled by the former mogul Sorin Ovidiu Vîntu, the National Institute for Opinion and Marketing Studies (INSOMAR) is currently owned by Maricel Păcuraru, the boss of Realitatea PLUS, and Cozmin Gușă.
An INSOMAR survey published in October 2024, about a month before the first round of the presidential elections, indicated a final between Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă. Then, 4 days before the elections, INSOMAR completed another poll in which it credited a second round between PSD leader and George Simion.
In the run-up to the early election campaign at the Capital City Hall, INSOMAR published a survey that placed Cătălin Drula in first place, followed by Daniel Băluță and Anca Alexandrescu, producer of the Realitatea PLUS channel. At the time of publication of the research, the latter had not even officially announced her candidacy.
