El Niño has begun, and meteorologists fear that the global climate phenomenon could reach the intensity of a catastrophic episode that, in the past, led to the death of more than 50 million people.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially announced on Thursday that ocean temperatures have risen enough for an El Niño event to be active and likely to continue until 2027, according to the Daily Mail.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which warmer-than-average waters in the Pacific Ocean alter global weather patterns over a period of at least several months.
In the official warning, NOAA issued: “El Niño conditions are present and expected to intensify during the 2026–2027 Northern Hemisphere winter.”
This means that the ocean surface temperature is at least +0.9°F (+0.5°C) above the usual average and is expected to remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Scientists fear this phenomenon could evolve into a “Super El Niño” by the end of the year, which would mean water temperatures up to 3.6°F (+2.0°C) above normal or even more — a level NOAA classifies as “strong.”
NOAA confirmed those fears on Thursday, saying there was a 63 percent chance of an El Niño becoming “very strong” between November 2026 and January 2027. Climate experts warn that this episode could be one of the most intense on record since 1950, with fears that it could rival the El Niño event of 1877, which triggered severe droughts and compromised crops globally, contributing to the deaths of more than 50 million people.
An increase of just 4.86°F (+2.7°C) in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean then wreaked havoc on several continents. Parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and Australia were affected by severe droughts and wildfires. In India, the monsoon rains have almost completely disappeared, and northern China has been hit by prolonged periods of drought, with compromised harvests. In Brazil, rivers dried up and agriculture collapsed. Epidemics of malaria, plague, dysentery, smallpox, and cholera also broke out among already vulnerable populations.
Researchers estimate that food shortages and disease outbreaks have killed up to 4 percent of the world’s population since then. If a similar impact were to happen again today, it would mean at least 250 million deaths.
Thursday’s announcement showed that the area of the central Pacific, where scientists are actively monitoring temperatures for El Niño, was 1.3°F (+0.7°C) above normal — exceeding the 0.9°F threshold needed to declare the phenomenon. At the same time, NOAA also stated that waters in the eastern Pacific have already risen by 3.8°F (+2.1°C) above the usual average. This pattern, with warmer waters to the east, is characteristic of a developing strong El Niño.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said: “El Niño usually starts in the fall, so this phenomenon is developing much earlier and faster than expected.”
In the United States, El Niño significantly influences the jet stream, which moves from west to east over the center of the country.
“It will intensify the drought in the Northwest and Northern Rockies and reduce the intensity and extent of the drought in the Southwest”Merrill added.
Although super El Niños have had a catastrophic global impact in the past, meteorologists note that the phenomenon could reduce the severity of the eastern Atlantic hurricane season.
Overall, AccuWeather is forecasting a below-average hurricane season, with fewer named storms and fewer tropical cyclones reaching major intensity. However, AccuWeather chief long-term meteorologist Paul Pastelok told the Daily Mail that this does not mean Americans can ignore the risks in 2026, as a major hurricane can strike at any time, even in the presence of El Niño.
“One storm is all it takes and … boom! We’re not saying El Niño is going to completely weaken the Atlantic season. There’s still a lot of warm water, a lot of potential. So if people think there’s nothing to worry about this year, it’s not true.”he added.
Pastelok noted that the devastating Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 storm in 1992 and killed 65 people globally, formed during an El Niño season.
