After the no-confidence motion was submitted, the opposition parties began to talk not only about supporting the vote, but also about the conditions under which they would support the formation of a future government. While PSD conveys that it is willing to enter into negotiations with PNL and UDMR, but without an executive led by Ilie Bolojan, other formations are raising the stakes. POT or the Peace Group conditions the support for the motion on the participation of the AUR in the government or even on obtaining ministerial portfolios for their own formations.
“Adevărul” spoke with political analyst George Rîpa about the strategies of the opposition parties. AUR would like support for legislative projects or even circulates the scenario of the anticipated, unsuitable for PSD, which would lose seats in the Parliament. It also takes into account the entry into government.
“GOLD is in a more complicated situation than its leaders think. From the moment the Bolojan Government falls, they have two clear options. The first is to enter government with the PSD, but this will come with two major problems. First, such a government would not enjoy the confidence of international donors. Practically, in just a few months, Romania would become insolvent. Romania must borrow, in 2026, 53-55 billion euros. No foreign bank would finance a populist administration that would increase spending in the country with the highest deficit and highest inflation in the EU.”
“The party leadership would be seen as the useful idiot of the PSD”
However, the collaboration with the PSD in submitting the motion of censure against the Bolojan Government places the party in a position where it can set conditions.
“AUR joining PSD will have a negative effect for a large part of the populist party’s voters. These anti-system voters understand very well that the “system” is politically represented by the PSD, the party that has dominated politically for the past 37 years and has governed for the longest time. The second option is for AUR not to govern alongside PSD, but then the party leadership would be seen as PSD’s useful idiot. Basically, it would help them win a political battle without having anything to gain“, says the analyst.
The Pace Group and the remaining MPs in POT demand AUR to enter the government.
“At this point, the PACE group sees only one solution. An AUR-PSD-PACE government, or an AUR-PACE government, or only an AUR government and we will support it”stated Ninel Peia, senator PACE – First Romania, on Wednesday, on the day of the reading of the motion.
The Young People’s Party (POT) lost the parliamentary group from the Chamber of Deputies, after the departure of 10 deputies. Those who remained, however, conditioned their vote on a government in which AUR would be a part. Anamaria Gavrilă conveyed that the parliamentarians from the group she coordinates signed the motion, but requested that PSD and AUR “assume governance” before the vote:
Grindeanu accuses llie Bolojan of “fascist language” and compares him to Liviu Dragnea: “There is life even after Tuesday. Romania can be governed even without his rule”
“For parties like POT or PACE, a government containing GOLD would be a disaster. Their radical messages make sense to their voters as long as there is a government they can criticize. If AUR comes to government, these parties will disappear. For these parties, from an electoral point of view, the only solution is to make total opposition to the PSD”.
Diana Șoșoacă announced that SOS will not vote on the motion and attacked the joint approach saying that “AUR is PSD’s child”. Parliamentarians from POT and the Pace Group remain at the negotiating table.
The PSD must secure a majority before the motion is voted on, but what can it promise the MPs who have already signed but are undecided about the vote? At the moment, SOS still has 15 MPs in the Chamber of Deputies, POT has 16, and the PACE group in the Senate has 12 more elected.
“PSD can propose, first of all, functions. Every parliamentarian from these parties has a wife / husband / child who can find a better job in the state system. From here we leave. Then, obviously, the PSD can also support specific legislative initiatives, but in this way the social democrats would end up a pariah even in the socialist group in Brussels, as it was during Dragnea’s time”. says George Rîpa.
What strategy does PNL adopt?
And liberals are faced with a strategic decision that may redefine their political future. Any compromise could be costly, both in terms of credibility and electoral capital. Distancing themselves from contentious alliances and maintaining a clear political line could be a long-term win.
“The PNL is not in a position to make concessions to the populist parties in the Parliament, because it would legitimize the PSD-AUR alliance and cancel its own lines of discourse. The only solution for the PNL is to stay away from any government formula that contains these parties and not yield a single millimeter to the PSD. Moreover, the strategy of the PSD is to restore a governing alliance with the PNL. If the PNL agrees to do this, it will become a party electorally irrelevant, because the support for Bolojan is today at double the percentages of the party.
On the other hand, if the PNL remains firm on its positions, it will succeed in making the transfer of trust from the prime minister to the party and in the next parliamentary elections it would take a score at least 50% higher than in 2024. In the short term, such a firm positioning could lead to an implosion in the PSD, a party that would see itself without real options after bringing down a government without even having a solution to the crisis”. says the analyst.
The PNL leaders are sending messages these days that imply that the liberals are ready to enter the opposition and stand behind the decision made by the National Political Bureau to stop collaborating, in a new government, with the PSD.
