Comparisons with the Boc era and the political games of the 2009 presidential campaign flood the public scene, but the reality of 2026 invalidates this deja vu. Major economic and geopolitical differences drastically reduce the chances of an indigo scenario, despite similar governmental instability.
“Adevărul” spoke with former presidential adviser, political analyst Cristian Hrițuc, about the major differences between the two political situations. The Boc I government continued to function on an interim basis, until after the presidential elections, but only after the options with Lucian Croitoru and Liviu Negoiţă as prime ministers were rejected or postponed by the parliament.
“First of all, it’s not the same context. At that time, the presidential elections were in full swing, and it was somewhat assumed by everyone that, at the end of the campaign, it would be decided what would happen to the Government. Decision 85 of the Constitutional Court, in which everyone is spinning, is quite clear: the president is not allowed to appoint a prime minister under conditions where it is known from the start that he will fail. Can Ilie Bolojan receive another mandate? Yes, if the idea is configured that he will have a majority, yes, he can receive such a mandate. If we have to go to the extreme, let’s judge that Grindeanu also failed through a censure motion. Could Grindeanu receive a mandate? I mean, it seems to me that things are a bit pushed to the extreme.
Because, at the moment, let’s be serious, even if, constitutionally, Ilie Bolojan could receive a mandate, PSD would not be able to vote, that is the biggest barrier. They could not vote for a government with Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and a continuation in the coalition, after they had the censure motion.“
“The President can dissolve the Parliament. He is not obliged”
Two prime ministerial proposals were rejected at the time, but the president is not obliged to dissolve parliament if two prime ministerial proposals with proposed ministers do not pass, the analyst says.
“It may or may not be the way to early elections. The president can appoint two more governments. Because there is a very clear word in the Constitution: the president can dissolve the Parliament. It is not required. The president can try to solve the crisis. In the larger term, he is not constrained by these two successive falls. With the way the Constitution is written, I am sure that all parliamentarians who do not get a second term would vote for the second government, even if it is called the Gigi Becali Government”, shows the expert.
We remind you that Emil Boc recently declared that the current situation is the opposite of the one between the two governments he led, but that the social democrats are also the engine of these changes.
“After the elections, I was reconfirmed as prime minister. The PSD is now suffering what it did in 2009. Then it left the government in the hope that it would maximize its chances of winning the presidential elections, the same scenario is now being repeated with other actors. The PSD remains alone in the government, its allies leave it, in order to maximize the chances for the next elections”, said the former prime minister for Ziua de Cluj.
“Back then it was a bit of a drag on everyone’s part”
Cristian Hrițuc says that the extension of the interim situation was possible in 2009 due to the presidential elections and the fact that the two camps supported different candidates and assumed the political battle, which came first before the one to form a new government.
“First of all, the situations are not at all similar, because this part of who wins the presidency will appoint the government was also assumed by the PSD. They also knew and did not put so much pressure, let’s say, for the creation of a government. It was assumed, aware of by everyone. President Băsescu made two nominations. Liviu Negoiță practically waited for the end of the elections and then submitted his mandate. So then it was a bit of a drag on everyone’s part.
Now we are not in this position, because we are in a period, so to speak, of the middle of the mandate. At that time, we were in the final period of the presidential term and everyone was waiting for the end of hostilities, to set up a government“, he says.
“Now times are more complicated. War, oil crisis”
The only challenge facing Romania in 2009 was the beginning of the effects of the economic crisis generated by low-risk real estate loans, which started in the USA in 2008. The government had not yet started measures to reduce the state apparatus or cut wages.
“They are not alike from the point of view of the political game either. They are not similar in terms of context either. Now times are more complicated. War, oil crisis, war in Ukraine, huge deficit in Romania.
Then the economic crisis had not exploded, it was still contained. Even during the presidential campaign some measures were taken, something like, if I remember correctly, the reduction of the working time of civil servants. They each had one day of vacation imposed, in order to reduce the part of the salary. There were some measures to reduce state spending, but in an ultra-initial form. Only after the presidential elections did the harsh measures come, with the 25% reduction in salaries.“
At this moment, in Romania, the austerity measures have already been taken and the international context should have taken precedence in the decisions of the political decision-makers, believes the former presidential adviser.
“Romania is now in a global crisis. Everyone is in a crisis. There were no border wars then, and no Gulf War with its implications for the oil crisis.
It was an economic crisis starting from the financial crisis in the United States, but the wave to Europe was still in its infancy. So then you had more leeway in time. Now, the playing space is extremely limited, because time is passing, you have the conditionalities of PNRR, SAFE, you will lose money anyway, it is clear that you have no way to get all that money, and the fight with the deficit is not over yet.
I estimate that we will also have problems on the budget, because all this money that will no longer enter through the PNRR, and which is also now trapped in the budget, will lead to a decrease in the budget and to the forcing of a budget rectification much earlier.“, says Cristian Hrițuc.
Another difference compared to 2009 is the fact that then the elections were excluded from the scenarios because they cannot be organized either before or at the same time as the presidential elections, since the Constitution provides that the Parliament cannot be dissolved during the last six months of a president’s mandate.
