Putin's Russia has apparently tempting proposals for countries like Romania, Poland and Hungary, but in reality they would be wide traps, at least for the first two. This is the opinion of the economist Andrei Caramitru, who argues his point of view.
Putin wants Eastern Europe and is willing to make any promises PHOTO: EPA – EFE
Vladimir Putin himself has repeatedly spoken about the fact that Ukraine is an artificially formed state and that it benefits from important territories taken from its neighbors. The Russian dictator starts from a historical truth to justify his aggression and to lure other countries to accept it. This is because Putin's Russia despises the international rules established by mutual agreement even with Russia and the USSR, whose successor the Russian Federation claims to be.
Economist Andrei Caramitru has an interesting version regarding the proposal made by Putin to Romania, that our country recover its territories included in the 40s in the former USSR, and later in Ukraine.
It's a well-laid trap, and the Russian dictator's offer might seem irresistible to the nationalists at first glance, but once the Kremlin achieves its goal, disaster would follow for Romania and the Romanians.
An “irresistible” offer
“What does Russia want and why do Teodosie/AUR/Sosoaca support them? The Russians want to take Odessa and then take Transnistria and occupy the Republic of Moldova. With the tanks on the border with Romania – they want to give us the following hill / ultimatum: We give you the Republic of Moldova and Chernivtsi. Make Romania Great again. The price? Get out of NATO, out of the EU and copy Lukashenko's Belarus model. Become our vassal. All opponents – arrested, disappeared. Yes – there will be poverty and horror. But you have Great Romania!”, is Caramitru's post.
If Romania refused the offer, the threats would come. “don't you want We attack you and – in the end – not only occupy you and crush you, but also give Transylvania to the Hungarians. They hope that – out of fear and excitement for the idea of Greater Romania – we will give in without a bullet being fired. In this context – Teodosie hopes to become a patriarch. Simion and the others – Lukashenko and the local KGB. That's why they scream about Chernivtsi and say that the Republic of Moldova does not exist“, he adds.
In support of his statement, Andrei Caramitru recalls other statements made by Vladimir Putin, who also requested that NATO return to the old borders, leaving aside the countries of the East. “Do you think I'm exaggerating? Read what Putin said before the invasion – he demanded we leave NATO and “offered” the territories of eastern Ukraine to Poland/Hungary/Romania. Simion just stated that he”adds Caramitru.
The trap closes
But even if Romania accepted the Russian Federation's offer and agreed to enter Moscow's sphere of influence, Putin and his people would not keep their promises, says Andrei Caramitru:
“Whoever thinks that the Russians will really accept that we have Greater Romania is naive and crazy. The Kremlin has never accepted the existence of a large Latin country in the area. Actually – their scheme is super simple. After we put a stop to their proposal – they will make the next move (we are no longer in NATO or the EU and totally dependent on the Russians).”
Next, he also explains how the Russian Federation would act and how it would trigger a true hybrid war against Romania.
“Interethnic violence through Transylvania and beyond will impose the federalization of the great “Romania” with Transylvania, which becomes autonomous and signs a deal with Hungary (it's not for nothing that Orban is desperate to help Putin). The Russian army enters the remaining territory to ensure “peace”. And we would be in a much worse situation than in 1947″he says.
With Russian troops on the territory of the country, a real persecution would follow against the pro-Westerners and those who would oppose, Caramitru believes.
“In these scenarios – those of you who have been to protests before, wrote things on Facebook or work through multinationals will be safe, do you think? Not. You will be picked up at Rahova or Sighet. Tens of thousands of people will be eliminated in the first wave alone. The solution if it comes to this point? The army and let's fight. Better to fight with glory than to be destroyed and humiliated like the last dog”concluded Andrei Caramitru.
Memories of the future?
“The 1947 moment”, to which Caramitru refers, is a dark episode in the history of Romania. Basically, it was the year that marked the occupation of Romania and its destruction. Two years before, in 1945, at Yalta, Stalin had committed to organizing free elections in the countries under Soviet control in Eastern Europe. Moreover, he had to respect the percentages of influence. Both Roosevelt and Churchill were wrongly convinced that Stalin would keep his word.
Considering the fact that Russia had become a world superpower, with a formidable military force, Stalin did not even bother to keep his word. The elections organized in countries such as Romania, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Poland or Hungary, were grossly falsified in favor of the communists.
In short, the Russians quickly installed pro-Soviet, communist governments in all these countries. Purification of society was already beginning in Romania, following the Soviet model. Political parties were compromised, and their members – hunted and imprisoned or killed. Intellectuals and peasants were left without wealth and liquidated or imprisoned in political prisons.
Theodor Roosevelt and Winston Churchill were harshly criticized in the American political circles for the concessions made to the Russians in Eastern Europe – which dramatically influenced the fate of millions of inhabitants of the communist bloc, for several generations.
Following the Yalta Conference in 1945, Romania officially entered the sphere of Soviet influence, with the agreement of the Great Western Powers, such as England or the United States of America. The Western Allies decided to save Greece instead of Romania, due to British interests in the Mediterranean.
In fact, Romania's fate had already been decided since the last years of the war, but at Yalta it was sealed. Along with other states from the Balkans and Central Europe, Romania was left, by the Great Western Powers, in the hands of the Russians. And the reasons were clear and related to the interests of each state, but also to Romania's politics during the war years. Some historians even believe that Romania's fate was inevitable.
